Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33246.

ShroomsKit

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 03:19:35 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 08, 2013, 03:17:39 AM

The case for continuing downtrend:

The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.

The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.

Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.

Hello 100 and double digits..

I will welcome them with open arms Grin

Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything.

sarc

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Quote from: wachtwoord on June 08, 2013, 05:20:39 AM

I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart Cheesy

wipe those bleary eyes and have a coffee.

wachtwoord

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I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart Cheesy

Note; the 4.0328 figure comes from extrapolating the growth between 500 and 1000 days linearly

sarc

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Quote from: wachtwoord on June 08, 2013, 05:11:43 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 04:33:29 AM

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*

Code:

Day 500  ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42

500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84

So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328

log(10783.5) = 4.0328

So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5

* I'm not advocating this model

oops, you might want to check your math

bitcoin price (logged+1) = -0.0635+0.0013791*days since the start

in 500 days = $100.2

edit : I don't advocate this model either. Roll Eyes

wachtwoord

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Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 04:33:29 AM

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*

Code:

Day 500  ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42

500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84

So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328

log(10783.5) = 4.0328

So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5

* I'm not advocating this model

zebedee

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Quote from: ?? on ??

This is what I think I know :

1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger

[...]

How am I doing so far ?

Not so well. Try again

phoenix1

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Quote from: prof7bit on June 08, 2013, 05:07:08 AM

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

FUCK ME ! And I thought I was bearish ...

Rampion

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 04:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

If you are interested only in BTC going up up up, it may be the smartest thing indeed.

I find funny how all the ones singing the "BTC is only useful for Silk Road" song are noobs that probably came into BTC because it was going to the freaking moon, and they wanted fiat profit. Then, the BTC bubble bursted and entered the slow deflation, so they are bitter and sound butthurt, and keep saying that the only use of BTC are drugs and speculation, and unfortunately (for them) they were late in order to tenfold their investment speculating.

Really man, all this is so 2011. Exactly the same arguments.

If you are in this for profit, zoom out and think that the price was $0.07 in 2010. And $2 in November 2011. And $10ish just 6 months ago.

If you are in this because it's more than fiat profits, think that freedom is much more important than convenience. Screw micropayments. Bitcoin is here to help you to be free.

prof7bit

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https://youengine.io/

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

sarc

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 04:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ...

free yourself!

phoenix1

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 04:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

I challenge you to do that ! People talk about Bitcoins connection to drugs (yawn) ... the real drug is the Bitcoin price

ChartBuddy

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lucas.sev

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Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

sarc

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Quote from: phoenix1 on June 08, 2013, 04:39:52 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 04:33:29 AM

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away Grin

I know seeing it is painful for some folk. Cry

phoenix1

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Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 04:33:29 AM

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)

Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away Grin

gizmoh

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Quote from: Miz4r on June 08, 2013, 03:57:22 AM

The case for a trend reversal

Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?

100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses

Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales

Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?

Maybe you are not aware of the number of coins mined: 11,259,425 v/s the 20,000 of that 105-106 wall

True 100 is psychological barrier , but it doesn't imply it can hold if there is not enough buyers/Fiat able to hold that price.

Whales lead the way, not the small fish,they give the signal not the way around. Remember all crashes were stopped by massive buy back which is nonexistent now. If there is no buying pressure, you'll get your signal.

sarc

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Quote from: phoenix1 on June 08, 2013, 04:25:55 AM

Quote from: BitPirate on June 08, 2013, 04:00:09 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 03:44:59 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: BitPirate on June 08, 2013, 04:00:09 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 03:44:59 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.

ChartBuddy

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BitPirate

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RMBTB.com: The secure BTC:CNY exchange. 0% fee!

Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 03:44:59 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?

I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.

The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.

Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?

Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.

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