Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33291. (Read 26498634 times)

so is it going up or down?!

 

Thanks guys

[from stockcharts.com]

It's a way to gauge the money flow over some time span (20 periods in the formula, I think 21 in my chart, period is 2h in my case), which means the formula takes into account the (relative) *change of the price* and the corresponding *volume*.

I'm not an expert in reading these, but the way it looks to me is that, on mtgox at least, money flow has been overall positive for the past week(s), and is now recovering from a dip a few days ago (that didn't go into the negative, but was a sharp drop).

Bitstamp on the other hand looks less good, money flow is negative or near zero, for about a week now, and no real sign of reversal yet. However, historically mtgox has led and bitstamp has followed, so it's possible that this will be the case again now.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:chaikin_money_flow


buying and selling pressure measured by this oscillator (of sorts).

basically above the line is good, below the line isn't. If you want the price to stay stable/increase.

I don't totally get it myself but that's the gist of my understanding.


EDIT - errr, yeah, see above

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=chaikin+money+flow


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:chaikin_money_flow

Developed by Marc Chaikin, Chaikin Money Flow measures the amount of Money Flow Volume over a specific period. Money Flow Volume forms the basis for the Accumulation Distribution Line. Instead of a cumulative total of Money Flow Volume, Chaikin Money Flow simply sums Money Flow Volume for a specific look-back period, typically 20 or 21 days. The resulting indicator fluctuates above/below the zero line just like an oscillator. Chartists weigh the balance of buying or selling pressure with the absolute level of Chaikin Money Flow. Chartists can also look for crosses above or below the zero line to identify changes on money flow.

Interpretation

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is an oscillator that fluctuates between -1 and +1. Rarely, if ever, will the indicator reach these extremes. It would take 20 consecutive closes on the high (low) for 20-day Chaikin Money Flow to reach +1 (-1). Typically, this oscillator fluctuates between -.50 and +.50 with zero as the centerline.

Chaikin Money Flow measures buying and selling pressure for a given period of time. A move into positive territory indicates buying pressure, while a move into negative territory indicates selling pressure. Chartists can use the absolute value of Chaikin Money Flow to confirm or question the price action of the underlying. Positive CMF would confirm an uptrend, but negative CMF would call into question the strength behind an uptrend. The reverse holds true for downtrends.

Buying/Selling Pressure

Chaikin Money Flow can be used to define a general buying or selling bias simply with positive or negative values. The indicator oscillates above/below the zero line. Generally, buying pressure is stronger when the indicator is positive and selling pressure is stronger when the indicator is negative.

While this zero line cross seems simple enough, the reality is much choppier. Chaikin Money Flow sometimes only briefly crosses the zero line with a move that turns the indicator barely positive or negative. There is no follow through and this zero line cross ends up becoming a whipsaw (bad signal). Chartists can filter these signals with buffers by setting the bullish threshold a little above zero (+.05) and the bearish threshold a little below zero (-.05). These thresholds will not entirely eliminate bad signals, but can help reduce whipsaws and filter out weaker signals.

Calculation Quirk

The Money Flow Multiplier in Chaikin Money Flow focuses on the level of the close relative to the high-low range for a given period (day, week, month). With this formula, a security could gap down and close significantly lower, but the Money Flow Multiplier would rise if the close were above the midpoint of the high-low range. The chart below shows Clorox (CLX) with a big gap down and a close near the top of the day's high-low range. Even though the stock closed sharply lower on high volume, Chaikin Money Flow rose because the Money Flow Multiplier was positive and volume was well above average. Ignoring the change from close-to-close means that Chaikin Money Flow can sometimes disconnect with price.

Conclusions

Chaikin Money Flow is an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure over a set period of time. At its most basic, money flow favors the bulls when CMF is positive and the bears when negative. Chartists looking for quicker money flow shifts can look for bullish and bearish divergences. Be careful though. Selling pressure still has the edge in negative territory, even when there is a bullish divergence. This bullish divergence simply shows less selling pressure. It takes a move into positive territory to indicate actual buying pressure. As an money flow oscillator, CMF can be used in conjunction with pure price oscillators, such as MACD or RSI. As with all indicators, Chaikin Money Flow should not be used as a stand-alone indicator. Marc Chaikin also developed the Accumulation Distribution Line and the Chaikin Oscillator.

lol .. you'd better make sure they are sharp 

Why do things always have to look more bullish when my new fiat arrives? This way I can't buy at the dip.

Forgive my stupidity but could you expand on what that chart shows and how the highlighted parts have significance?

there was a rather large buy on bitstamp recently as well, http://www.coinorama.net/#


it took a chunk out of the ask walls.

I've also noticed that the bid walls are starting to solidify gradually on bitstamp now... including a larger than normal one at 120 forcing people to buy above it, and a decent size amount of bids around 100 that started to grow after the flash crash/big sale the other day


EDIT - can someone school me on what "chaikin money flow" measures?

EDIT 2 - so I googled... so yeah basically we know that the large asks at bitstamp stemmed from around the time of the dwolla incident and the loss of confidence in mtgox' ability to transfer money easily internationally. We also know that this ask wall is in part due to the fact if you want to cash out, bitstamps SEPA transfers and fees are quicker and cheaper.

This increased selling pressure is therefore totally understandable, but it seems to be gradually countered by increased bids... still massively outweighed by ask walls, but the ratio of money/coins on gox is still in gox favour.

Forget trend lines. They're bullshit anyway :3

This is what make me cautiously optimistic, for the coming days at least:



Then again, there's this:

that sounds like fighting talk, just wait there while I grab my pencils.

lebing, we are taking the piss

sarc ... it might the last one you draw

Based on what parameters hey ? What  assumptions have you made ? How dare you  

Do you want to see a pretty graph I drew?

You guys are entirely too excited about a 1k buy. 6 months ago we used to piss 1k buys around here.

Hilarious that everyone gets their feathers ruffled over a "bearish" chart.  I don't put a lot of stock in charts at this point in the game but it isn't like his was unique.  blockchained.com has a line that puts it around $60 right now (we can ignore the bit about difficulty):

C'mon maths gurus ... which one of you finally ceded the point and decided the only thing to do was to buy more ?
Which line or angle was the final straw ?

Maybe everything from the April crash onwards is just one huge bear trap and it'll be $10000 coins next week, lol!

Maybe I should have Bugatti on speed dial just in case