anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?
My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.
If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?
(aside: looks like I'm developing a habit to dig up older posts. oh well)
That's the million dollar question, I'd say. Here's a somewhat related observation I made during the last days:
Take the order book. (ignore for a moment the objection that some/many/all of the orders are fake). The last days saw a rather drastic increase of the bid sum/ask sum ratio (visualized nicely on blockchained). There's another calculation I make routinely, seeing how far the price would go in either directions if the entire bid sum or ask sum (or parts of it) were executed as market orders. Don't know if that technique has a fancy name (maybe 'market execution price'?), but it takes into account not only the order totals but also the price distribution.
Okay, here's the observation: the average of that execution price was rising even more sharply than the bid sum/ask sum ratio lately. Which means not only did more money enter the order book (and/or coins left it), but that order prices appreciated as well.
The conclusion I draw is that a big reason why we saw the current upward breakout is that a) new orders were placed (duh!), and b) buyers adjusted their existing orders after realizing that their overly optimistic price setting for entering the market won't be met anytime soon (less of a duh). And I suspect this trend will continue.
brilliant, thanks for the response. This makes sense
