Looking for sub 20k in a few hours or so.
And now?
Not snark. Not rhetorical. Sincerely seeking your opinion.
Staying down for awhile is obviously better for me, as long as it’s not too far down. I always examine my own biases; and I want to check for any potential bearish bias in what I believe are my most realistic assessments. We have our disagreements on some issues, but you’ve been doing this for a long time—and you just almost doubled up your BTC, right while I was losing mine; so...
LOL.
So Bitcoin is in step with the Nasdaq index like a couple synchronized swimmers...
yep which is why the expected .75 fed move should level it off for some time.
I was hoping for the fed to do .50 or 1.00
either one would make more fud and spike btc along with the market a bit more.
the .75 will stabilize the fud until more terrible oil gas and inflation news comes along.
I am thinking this is a lost summer for a rally and sometime in july we drop again once inflation show zero sign of stopping.
If you can buy at dca do so as long as you can. I am set for 2 or 3 100 usd buys weekly for next 10 weeks.
I didn’t foresee any of what gave us our latest rapid crash from $28k to $20k. Perhaps my own focus on inflation gives me some blind spots: “News” that is
shocking to others gets a shrug from me:
What news? These manipulated CPI numbers are way too low.Gave up long ago on speculating on how markets will react to Fed news. The goddamn Fed doesn’t know that—
obviously. All of these Fed moves were supposed to have been priced in since the crash that followed November’s announcements, anyway. WTF happened to “priced in”? I thought the “tightening” was “priced in” by early January—at least enough to make this a small factor, dominated by other factors.
Whoops.I did speculate to myself a few weeks ago that whenever Russia finishes conquering the Ukraine Any Day Now(TM), all markets will flash-crash. I don’t know why they do that; it is stupid and irrational; but that’s what they do, and that is the reality. I do not otherwise expect sub-$20k BTC (other than very brief killer wicks below).
*Anyway... What do you think the prospect is for sideways along 200 WMA, slightly above and slightly below? A chart that looks something like August–September 2015. The “the .75 will stabilize... until” sounds like you expect sideways, then an even worse crash. I am more optimistic: I am thinking sideways-ish, maybe scraping along and around 200 WMA for a month (as has happened before), then a recovery (unless high-capital shorts/market manipulators prevent it).
The 200 WMA line is essentially meaningless, except as a Schelling point. Thus, it is deeply meaningful. I expect massive support there and in the range just below, because of all the buyers who don’t want to miss the opportunity before it’s bid up by other buyers who don’t want to miss the opportunity. That is the demand side—versus reduced supply: Moderately weak hands who refuse to mindrust out at that level, because they expect it to be the bottom. Many STH who will happily dump us down at 5% or 10% above WMA will suddenly hold now, waiting to exit in the bounce. Anyway, that is my speculative hypothesis—wholly qualitative, 0.0% quantitative.
* Addendum that grew out of a parenthetical—thinking aloud—this is generally more important than anything that I wrote above:If war news very seriously blows up the markets while we are still around 200 WMA, I think that the “I’ll buy at $10k” crowd may get their wish for long enough to not-buy—while they proclaim an impending return to $3k, or “going to zero”. Nocoiners who know enough about BTC to spout off price predictions, but still have not bought any, are nocoiners for a reason; they will mostly stay nocoiners, for that reason.
I want to put this publicly on the record somewhere:
During that weird pump in late March/early April—eight consecutive daily green candlesticks!—I hypothesized that high-capital Bitcoin bulls with indirect losses from BTC bear markets were purposely boosting the market, to buy us some cushion against their expectation of impending bad news. If we had not gone as high as ~$47k, and spent some time thereafter building support above/in the $30ks—oh, hell, imagine that the month of May had
started with us at/below the 200 WMA line!
I think that all markets are highly manipulated 24/7/365, so I don’t see this as exceptional—or even offensive. Not even unethical. High-capital bears short us to hell when they want, so why shouldn’t anyone with $billions of skin in BTC do the opposite?
Value fundamentals dominate BTC in the long term; but in the short term, the BTC price is almost entirely a matter of highly capitalized robots competing to out-manipulate each other as they all take away the money of traders who rely on TA astrology. They are damn well smart enough to manipulate your precious RSI, moving averages, trendlines, etc. as second-order effects of price manipulation—not only to manipulate the short-term price movements. Anyway, that is my theory—FWIW.
Accordingly, when we very suddenly rocketed out of the $30k range into the upper $40ks, and seemed to be building support at/above $45k, my read on it was, “We may soon crash back to the $30ks. This is happening, to stop it from being a crash to the $20ks. We will
probably not reach the $20ks, because of this cushion that starts us falling from a higher level.”
I didn’t cover my leveraged long and salvage whatever BTC I could at $45k–$47k, primarily due to a psychological inability to dump BTC—and I hate to bet against BTC! It also seemed not improbable to me that we may rocket straight off to $100k, no stops. I did know that de-leveraging was the economically rational choice—I just
couldn’t hit the
SELL BTC button! At several points in the upper $30ks to upper $40ks, I considered asking a friend to do it for me: “Here is access to my account. Please, I beg of you, recover whatever BTC you can, while I go drink myself into a stupor. Send the proceeds to
bc1q..., and keep a stack of sats for your time. I will thank you forever.” I considered that. I just
can’t hit that SELL button, unless a liquidator bot is a poised to strike at any moment.
I no doubt my earlier theory. I now put it on the record anyway. It could be right, much though I doubt it now; anyway, if I totally misread the situation in late March/early April, I would not hide that.
New theory: The bears were laying a bull trap that would allow them to build massive short positions starting at the top. IIIRC, Soros took a few months to build the position from which he suddenly crushed the £ peg within 24 hours—no, it was not that sudden.
Now, applying all of the above in a new context:
There exist sophisticated high-capital Bitcoiners who need for us to preserve the 200 WMA line as a bottom. This is not about short-term nonsense: This is about whether in 2026 or 2030, we can still have the 200 WMA line as a reliable Schelling point. I expect that people like Saylor (not only Saylor!) DGAF about this dip-for-ants, in and of itself; but they must care about preserving a globally agreed Bitcoin Bottom in the future.Surely, there also exist sophisticated high-capital anti-Bitcoiners who would be thrilled to shatter 200 WMA as a bottom. Shatter it forever. They only need to do it once!
Everyone knows that BTC can flash-crash deep below 200 WMA, very briefly. Everyone knows that BTC can scrape along for awhile just underneath it, like now. But
many people remain confident that BTC will not really break below the bottom.
So, crush BTC to, say, >10% or >20% below 200 WMA for at least a week/at least a month/whatever. If feasible, crush it to $10k for too long to be written off as a flash-crash or a fluke caused by panic. Thereafter, no one will ever consider 200 WMA as a globally agreed Bitcoin Bottom.
When flocks of black swans continue to fly in, who will win?
100.0% qualitative, 0.0% quantitative. My theory of where we stand—FWIW.
I am exhausted, so not even trying to assemble this into a coherent essay. phil should be ok with stream of consciousness.
