Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3406. (Read 26713745 times)

Explanation

HERE WE GO AGAIN !!! WHEEEEEEE!!!    

That’s like saying that the Zimbabwe Dollar can’t crash because the people of Zimbabwe made themselves dependent on it.  LOLWUT?

Of course, the USD can crash.  Can and shall.  It is an arithmetical certainty that it must crash—yes, I am calling “confirmed math and science” on that one.  What nobody can predict is when or how.  “...we all [not everyone is your “we”] look the other way because we can go on with our lives” = what Americans call kicking the can down the road.  How far can that go?  Nobody knows.

---

To what end?  “War of the Worlds” type of panic, given that historical precedent?

Anyway, in all seriousness, I neither admit nor deny the allegation that I am a space alien.  No comment!

Just for my own attempt at clarifying a few points, I feel that I have pretty conservative ways of considering the valuation of entry-level fuck you status both because it uses the 200-week moving average at an attempt to have a conservative measurement of seemingly inevitable BTC price volatility, but also I had injected a kind of expectation that in western countries we need to achieve at least a double valuation of what would have constituted entry-level fuck you status and being a "millionaire" as compared with our understanding of the world and the retention of the value of our fiat money prior to March 2020.  

So instead of a kind of symbolic need to acquire at least $1 million in dollar value to get into entry-level fuck you status, after March 2020 it seems to have become somewhat apparent that need to get to $2 million to achieve a kind practical assurance of reaching entry-level fuck you status, and surely right now since BTC prices are largely bouncing around the 200-week moving average, as I type this post, the BTC spot price and entry-level fuck you status valuation prices happen to be largely aligned at the BTC price of $22,300-ish, which also is currently about 89.7 BTC to reach a $2 million valuation.. not an easy task to achieve such, even if acquiring the BTC in 2016.

I am not going to go balls to the walls with any kind of low ball assessment of BTC prices in 2016, and I especially believe that there is a fantasy for anyone believing that they could have bought 89.7 or more BTC at $300 in 2016.... because that price did not exist in 2016... and yeah, maybe you would like to refer to 2015.. but that would be a different story, no.. a different set of hypothetical facts, no?

Lets go further and look at the context of the first 5 months of 2016 when BTC (even up to 89.7 BTC or more) could have fairly easily and reasonable and even in conformity of any somewhat reasonable hypothetical purchased for $420-ish for a decent amount of time during all of those first 5 months of 2016, but then it got more expensive after the end of May 2016, too.

After May 2016.. you are likely not going to be able to reasonably purchase 89.7BTC or more for less than $600 for pretty much the remainder of 2016 - even though we did have a crash back down to $500 around August 2015.. but a lot of folks were pretty scared as fuck too around that time, even though the BTC price did quickly dip down to $500 in a kind of wick dip... based on the then Bitfinex "hackening" of at least 119k BTC..  

So even if we might assume an early 2016 purchasing of 89.7 BTC or more with an averaging purchasing price of $420-ish, it still would have cost right around at least $38k to acquire 89.7 BTC in those early 2016 times.

By the way your reference to BTC prices touching upon $300 in 2016, is both factually inaccurate, but also just a kind of fantasylandia thinking that very many people would be able to buy BTC at a maximum dip price and to be able to lump sum buy into such a fantasy purchase.. It's just not realistic, even though quite a few members like to engage in those kind of fantasies regarding how they would be set if they ONLY were to have bought blah blah blah quantity of BTC at the maximum dippening point.  

And, just factually, in late October and into early November 2015, BTC prices largely went shooting up from the mid-to-upper $200s to the low $500s and then corrected down to $300 briefly (as a dip) in mid-November 2015, so even though it would have been pretty easy as fuck to buy BTC in mid-to-lower $200s through most of 2015, by the time even late 2015 came, it becomes quite difficult to even presume that you would be able to get 89.7BTC or more in the lower $300s...

You would have had to have been lucky as fuck to be able to buy any meaningful quantity of BTC for less than $400 through most of those first 5 months of 2016 or even the last couple of months of 2015.. so I believe $420-ish average purchase price for BTC in early 2016 might be a reasonable hypothetical acquisition price.. but really if you ONLY were to have around $7k of fiat available at that time and presuming that you would have been able to buy at $300, that $7k-ish would only have gotten you around 16 BTC at $420-ish  prices rather than your hypothetical to buy 89.7BTC or more at $300.. which 16 BTC is quite a bit less than what would be needed for our current entry-level fuck you status.. even though 16 BTC would still be a good amount (and reasonable) to have had gotten in around early 2016 with $7k of purchasing power.

Not meaning to quibble.. but we need to attempt to be somewhat realistic both in terms of sentiment towards BTC even in the 2015 timeframe, but even going into 2016 a lot of normies who knew about BTC were pretty damned scared about BTC and its then prices, its ability to retain prices or to go up in prices, so it is not ONLY be a fantasy to consider what prices you might have been able to get into bitcoin in 2015 or 2016, but then another fantasy to presume that you would have been able to hang onto most if not all of the BTC that you had supposedly acquired during those times.. and especially accounting for the crazy-ass volatility that we have experiences between 2015/2016 and now.. especially since you have already shown that you have difficulties maintaining a consistent HODL strategy and/or any kind of meaningful disinclination to gamble with whatever possibly extra BTC that you are able to accumulate - even if we might presume that at some point you might have been able to get close to the mindrust double digits of BTC.. (10BTC), which surely it seems that you likely had not even accumulated half of that amount.. but hey, it's your story.. not mine hahahahaha...

Another factor that I frequently tend to assert is that if you want to get up to 89.7 BTC or more or even 16 BTC or more, it is quite likely that you may well need to accumulate something like 50% more than the amount that you expect to retain at a much later date if you expect to be able to maintain that quantity of BTC or higher through more than 6 years of BTC price volatility if we are referring back to the idea of accumulating and holding onto your btc between early 2016 or earlier and present.

By  the way, we do have some longer-term members in this thread who could be characterized as BTC accumulators / HODLers and who have quite likely achieved such an objective of retaining 16 BTC or more and also likely 89.7 BTC or more, and even if we likely do not know their exact quantiyy of BTC holdings particulars, through the years we have gotten some ideas about the kind of mindset, persistency and consistency that seems to be somewhat present in order to both achieve a certain quantity of BTC accumulation and to be able to maintain and retain a certain level of BTC holdings.. There is a kind of discipline and long term thinking that they have tended to exercise in terms of continuously accumulating BTC during dips and even DCAing or some other seemingly purdent and practical practices once in a while supplementing their BTC HODLer/accumulator resolve.  

For sure these kinds of BTC accumulator/HODLer folks exist within participating in this thread.. but they are still fairly rare and likely have made quite a few mistakes along the way of their bitcoin journey too.. but also have likely overaccumulated BTC at various points in times.. and not too many have equal to or more BTC than they started out with in earlier days.. but likely there are a few of those types too.. which surely takes quite a bit of work to achieve a cold storage kind of retention of BTC, rather than just saying what if I had purchased more than 89.7 BTC at $300 with the $7k-ish dollars that I would have been able to muster in 2016.. just not going to happen to do it all in one lump sum like that with the vast majority of peeps, including your own demonstrated personality whether it is OPsec camloflauged or not.  hahahaha   #nohomo.


For sure, we have some pretty decent ideas that with the passage of time, it is going to take fewer and fewer BTC to actually reach entry-level fuck you status.

I do believe that at some point, I am going to need to revise some of my projections to make it a wee bit more sloping off rather than constant.., but at the end of this post that was last edited on December 28, 2021, you can see that I had projected about 0.7 BTC to be sufficient to reach entry-level fuck you status by the end of 2029 - and that presumes at today's dollar prices (so accounting for inflation or purchasing power of today's dollars.. so nominally we might end up getting a bit of a different story by the end of the decade.. fuck?  maybe we could be in a very serious implosion of the US Dollar by then.. 7.5 years from now.. can the dollar hang on in any kind of a meaningful credible fashion for another 7.5 years?)..  


I don't know if it is ridiculous, even though I would agree with any kind of assessment that there is a certain amount of frustration that exists when these kinds of extreme DOWNity BTC price moves happen.

Of course, whether the bottom is in cannot really be felt with decent levels of confidence until we get sufficiently far away from our most recent current bottom in terms of time and/or price distance... and what is our most recent low?  $20,080 from about 20 hours ago, as I type this post.. we are still very close to that with our prices hovering just above $22k.. fuck.. frustrating.. but still I would not necessarily proclaim it as ridiculous.. even though I do understand the feeling.. so for sure a bit of a moving target in terms of when we might be able to start to exude some reasonable levels of confidence in regards to the bottom being in... .. and gosh, I am not even sure if I am going to be able to feel confidence about the "bottom possibly being in" prior to our getting back above the 100-week moving average (presuming that we are going to get back above it) which the price movement of the 100-week moving average is still continuing to gently slope UP and a little bit above $36.1k as I type this post.., and I had not realized or appreciated on a concrete level that the 100-week moving average would continue to move up when we have been so far below it for about 5 week already. fuck..  . so in the last 5 weeks, the 100-week moving average has moved up from about $35k at the beginning to $36.1k currently. wow..

There USD won't crash because the world has made themselves dependent on it.
So printers go brrrrrrrrrrr and we all look the other way because we can go on with our lives...

Seems they have tried everything so far. They tried worldwide pLandemic. Didn't work as expected or to the extend expected. Then they forced Russia to act militarily in Ukraine so that they can declare state of economic emergency for food and energy in the world. Didn't work as expected or to the extend expected either. Now what? Only option left is to simulate alien invasion from outer space.

Exactly this. I've bought some extra at 28k and I'm still very happy with that position.
Accumulate and 6 months from now we will likely be at or close to 100k so any position is a good one.

cAPSLOCK, this reply is repurposed from a reply to you, Torque, and Hueristic that I started earlier:


Somewhere last month, I saw an intelligent LUNA holder compare the Terra meltdown to LTCM.

Since highly intelligent Lunatics seem rare, it is possible that I was the only person present who understood the reference—or what it meant.

Credit where due.  He pretty much anticipated all of this.  The LTCM allusion was spot-on, a big ball of predictions summarized in four letters.

(I began longer reply to posts by you/others listed above, re derivatives and some other things... cannot finish now, sorry; maybe another time.  The gist:  (a) I was not even talking about naked shorts, but rather, legit shorts of actual coins; (b) naked shorts would be impossible, if we could delete all centralized exchanges and use only trustless DEX; (c) cannot complain about derivatives, etc. in the same free market where Bitcoin can exist.  Free market is free market.  Permissionless is permissionless.  No “have cake, eat too” (similar issue as with tokens, NFTs, etc.).  I even like some derivatives—though not CME; I was puzzled during the late-2017 bull run about why so many Bitcoiners were excited about CME, gleeful over every pump caused by news about CME—wtf?—I guess it was just greed talking.)

---

QFT, thank you.

Bitcoin will win when people sell dollars purely out of fear, thinking this might be the “end” of the U.S. Dollar.

At that point, it will be in every way the antimindrust situation.  To flee a crashing asset is sometimes smart.

Explanation

Explanation

Quote of the day:

Explanation

Another week filled with excitement! Lifted directly from the mouth of Big Kev "I’m excited!"

I hope everyone here has taken this opportunity to increase their stash, using whatever method available they’re comfortable with, DCA/BTD/BTFD/BTFFD or even TA (Trading Astrology  ), anything, other than Margin Gambling\Trading!

I opted for DCA to add to the stash. In fact, these buy will be allocated to my Great Grand Children. I went all the way down to $17,000.00.

Do I think the price will go sub $20K, don’t know and most importantly, I don’t care...

We’ve all been here before, we’ve all seen this same scenario, time and time again, and hopefully no one is in "Shock and Awe" of the situation.

Well, but something would be stabilizing...imagine how much interest Apple, Google, Berkshire would get on their cash?
Highly leveraged players might go bankrupt.
Nobody thinks that RE goes to be affected, but i don't see how it won't with 6.3% mortgages.
I see that defi and all "financial apps" on non-bitcoin would get crushed.
I see that bitcoin would act as savings...then as spending source..and that's it.
There would be no financialization as the financial house of cards just can't survive all those ups and downs (at some point).
Whether it is this cycle (of up and down interest rates) or not, it's hard to say.
Maybe penultimate.

READ WITH ATTENTION WHAT I SAY!!!!!!!!!!!

THEY CAN TRADE THE PRICE INTO UNLIMITED TrADING! AS LONG AS THERE ARE PHYSICAL COINS ON THE EXCHANGES! THAT IS WHY THEY BLOCKED WITHDRAWALS!!!!

IF YOU hAVE THE COINS ON THE EXCHANGE IT MEANS THAT YOU CAN TRADE IT DOWN TO UNLIMITED AMOUNTS BEcAUSE THEY CAN INJECT EVEN 1 TRILLION $$ AND GAMBLE IT DOWN !

THE ONLY BREAKDOWN WILL BE WHEN EVERYONE WILL BE HOLDING ON THE EXCHANGES AND NOT TRADING IT! WHEN THEY CAN'T DRAW OUT OF THE GAME BUT ALSO CHOSE NOT TO PLAY !

So... in conclusion, we are going down with the price some more until people will stay on the sidelines with their stashes and wait for the exchanges to let them pull their funds out into their private wallets.    

Hello.   Snakes are doing well and still far more dangerous than Chinese lab flu's.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/dr-anthony-fauci-tests-positive-covid/story?id=85416368

This poor fear monger jabbed and jabbed himself and every child who he was able to convince their parents of his nonsense and still couldn't escape from his deadly mild symptoms that have rendered him totally fine.  


Back to corn discussion:


Hitting the old 2017 all time highs is unprecedented and will seal our bottom.

We never got the traditional blow off top (Chinese mining exodus rained on that one) so the cycle timing makes sense.

This thread is not the place you are gonna find the panic and fear selling of prior cycles. Its full of veteran soldiers who have seen it all and know better. Look to stockwits and altcoin forums for the things that used to happen here.

You are seeing 2 levels deep.  It goes deeper.

You guys realize that very soon there will be ANOTHER Celsius, or Blockfi happening...

And then big well known hedge funds.

And then Medium sized banks.

And then LOTS of medium sized banks...
 
And so on?

Tick tock.

We have known it for years, but some of you are too busy watching the side shows to see it happening now.

Have I ever told you my cockeyed theory that Nakamoto, SAtoshi is a rogue group inside the NSA?

I give it about a 4% chance of being true... high, really.

Rumors Swirl About Financial Stress at Three Arrows