Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3403. (Read 26713876 times)

the next ones will follow in any case - just stay tuned

cygan

I love Lina Seiche's "The little HODLer".  Please keep posting her work!

So the SEC decision for a spot ETF seems to be on June 29. (Bitwise) and July 6. (GBTC).

Anyone thinking one of them will get approved?

And how much would BTC go up short term?

No amount is small amount if you have earned it by trading it's quite impressive. I don't do any trading myself but respect anyway!  

Hmm..


https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1537503784808718341

You should delete that picture.

If Binance works with any government, they will link you to this forum account.    

*edit(): maybe tomorrow, but don't let ppl quoting you use the picture... delete the link.   

https://twitter.com/coinbeastmedia/status/1537457769061568512

Explanation

I think in the end it will be difficult to come up with an argument it was not prudent.  Nothing is certain, but that's about as close as it gets I think.

...

I have not seen many comments on mindrust lately...

If he's a trader, or at least buys & sells some of his BTC stash (IIRC he sold around $40,000), I would think that turns out to have been smart!

As many of you know, I sold most of my BTC last year in small pieces, 2021 average sale price: ~$42,250.  I am happy that I was prudent, and took a lot of profit along the way.

Often, prudence can be smart.  


In 2022 I have bought on the way down, costs between $45,000 and $24,000.  Was that prudent?  We'll see.


[edited]

One of the values of both DCA and buying on dips is that hardly anyone has average BTC costs that are even close to ATH numbers. They shouldn't if they have any kind of meaningful level of actually trying to employ a prudent - rathe than a gambling strategy.. Think about it.. peak price of $19,666 in December 2017.. BTC prices dropped down to $6k-ish as quickly as February 2018.. and then BTC prices were largely bouncing between $6k and $10k for close to 3 years until September 2020 with quite a few additional opportunities to get BTC between $3,200 and $6k..

...and probably nuff said.. except that I hardly have any sympathy for anyone who in fact got stuck with average BTC prices in those higher levels and I hardly consider the actually price of buying BTC at those top of the BTC price to be a handicap except for just some desire about whining in regards to a situation that could be mitigated.. and a more relevant factor of average cost of BTC that can be used to mitigate a decent amount of the mistake or whatever you want to proclaim buying at high prices to be..

I bought my first BTC high my lil selfie at around $1,200 when the actual spot price was $1,100 (probably less than that) in late 2013.. but the BTC price peak had only gotten to $1,163 in that time frame, but I did not whine about it for the next three and a half years before it finally got back into profits.. Many of you probably know what I did.. which seems to be way more powerful than whining. at least there should be some objective concessions about those kinds of factors.. especially when talking about 3 years or 5 years or whatever whining timeframe that you would like to proclaim to be holding you back.. when it is more likely your mindset holding you back rather than the facts being actually as negative as you are wanting to make them out to be.

I like skinny butts I cannot lie.


Surely, I am wondering if I would have much if any dry powder left if we would go below even $12k.. so getting down to $4k would be holy shit. .wya the fuck out of dry power.. at least that is my projection of where my cash would be at... I have a hard time considering being able to hold onto cash all the way down.. at some pint may of us would end up going into a kind of HODL status.. and no longer able to buy..

By the way,  I have already made at least 6 significantly comprehensive adjustments to various aspects of my BTC buy ladders and several times took way more cash out of reserves that I had thought had been already pulled ut of Bitcoin.. so that old cash is already back in bitcoin.. even though a decent number of those new cash orders have not executed.l though It seems ot me that some of them have executed too.. I mean.. not expecting to go below 100-week moving average and then various other lower BTC price points that also fit into the "not expecting to go below" category, too.

In my latest restructuring of ladders from just a couple of days ago I had gone to bed, and then I had to get up because I had an "ah ha" thought which involved: 1) changing the amounts of BTC scheduled to buy in the buy orders below $20k, 2) changing the increments between each of the orders - making them tighter, 3) increasing the overall quantity of dollars that I allocated to them and 4) moving the buy orders down to lower prices -below $15k.. (again hoping that they do not get filled)..

.. so after I made all the above tweakenings to what made my lil selfie MOAR comfie, I went back to bed.. and then after about 30 minutes lying there contemplating the potentiality of sheep, the sheep were not coming, and I had another ah ha moment that caused me to get up otra vez..

fuck..

I went back to the computer.. and 1) lessened the spread between buy orders and sell orders, 2) changed the quantity of sell orders, 3) changed the amount sold for each of the sell orders which still added up to the overall same amount but just that they were spread out more causing them more likely to get hit more frequently, 4) made the increments a wee bit tighter too.. and 5) revised my short-term going forward plan in regards to how buys sells will be reset after they are triggered . either price
.high spread them out quite a bit more and even made tighter increments...

Prior to the two above tweakenings, I had thought that my earlier tweakenings that had happened when the BTC price was around $25k had made me sufficiently comfortable.. but then after these latest tweakenings.. I began to feel even MOAR comfortable.. about as much as can be accomplished absent winning the lottery or something like that, and my odds for winning the lottery seem to be very low, especially since I rarely play it (absent someone buying a ticket for me against my will).. I am kind of against playing the lottery.. at least from my personal practices point of view.

Let's see how long this set up lasts.. .. I am speculating that I may well have to tweak again if the orders down to about $17.5k were  to get filled..

fuck..

hope it does not happen..

By the way.. these kinds of manual adjustments do not seem to be the kinds of ones that any bot can really accomplish.. and of course, there could be ways to set up a bot to carry out orders within current BTC price dynamics, and for sure if the price dynamics change then the bot may well have to be re-programed in various ways too..   Bot programing experts do likely know how to NOT get themselves into too much of a pickle, and they had probably learned by their earlier getting into pickle or pickle approaching circumstances in their earlier bot programming experiences.

OT Shower thought:

Ya' know, it just occurred to me that wealthy billionaires and even Central Banks around the world are likely a bit scared right now.

Rotating into commodities was always a short-term hedge play for them, which is why they always kept the majority portion of their portfolio in equities, instead of the other way around.

The problem that most commodities have always had is, they have no supply cap. They are always growing, or always have the potential to grow. Without sufficient or rising demand, supply will soon grow and thus always put negative downward pressure on prices. If you have a sufficient monopoly to collude, you can fix the price of a commodity for while, but sooner or later that catches up and you can no longer maintain the 'peg'. Then it is boom and look out below.

Conversely, rising equities represent GDP growth, and the supply of a corporations' stock can be controlled, as well as 'bought back' to further limit the supply of market stock, thus raising the price.

So imagine a prolonged recessionary, stagflationary environment where the Fed has raised interest rates high, cheap debt is no longer available, and global GDP growth has fallen off the cliff. Obviously in such a scenario, logic would dictate that commodities would become more attractive than equities, and thus the world's billionaires would "pile all-in" to commodities for the long haul.

BUT, there is a problem. Commodities have no supply cap. The price of commodities would constantly be facing the headwinds of ballooning supply surpluses and falling global demand. Prices would not keep up with long term inflation. This is NOT a scenario that wealthy billionaires and central bankers want to be in long term. The price of commodities would eventually fall far behind that of monetary inflation. They would end up losing wealth BIG time.

So they are worried right now of such a long term scenario. They don't want to be in commodities for very long. They want GDP growth to pickup and be long in equities once again. They will really start to panic if this recession stretches out into 2023 or even 2024.

What does this have to do with Bitcoin? Only that if this stagflationary, high Fed rate scenario stretches out for years, those billionaires will be looking for commodities and deflationary assets with the most scarce or fixed supply: Bitcoin, precious metals, and high value real estate.

Explanation

https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/news/2239/full-moon-guide-june-july-2022/


 .... low turning point is right now, weekly, monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, yearly,  multi-yearly(?)

... doesn't get better than this, this is IT, the HoneyMoon bottom.

It's not enough that these Ukrainians take our weapons, they are now taking our wheelie bins also.

Fucking disgrace.

Enough!

Hampshire wheelie bin found 1,200 miles away in war-torn Ukraine
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/hampshire-wheelie-bin-found-1-113819546.html

I think this is possible, but on the low side.  I think we have more chance of wicking to 17.5 before running back up to 21k fairly quickly... and this week is a hot time for it to possibly happen.  That would keep the WMA integrity, but really be a good vomity capitulation.

Also it agrees with the fibs drawn from covid low to ATH:


(forgiver linear chart.  Easier to see there...)

And that level is the only place (sadly) south of 20k where there was any volume to be some support... but not even much there... :/
Of course I HOPE we are already bottomed, but it is not LOOKING like it, market activity wise.  I want to get see where the long/short is at, because I do believe if there are a lot of longs then there is some real incentive to get that wick down.

Explanation