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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3413. (Read 26713621 times)

legendary
Activity: 2050
Merit: 1184
Never selling
@death_wish: aim for one (1) BTC. This should be enough to set you up for life. Now is a golden opportunity to get it at a very low (relatively speaking) price point.

Thank you kindly.  You are right about getting at least 1 BTC.  I have been in a little bit of a daze trying to figure out how to scratch together purchase funds for that.  Before you posted that—thinking, Need 1 BTC.  Wrote to a friend that I need at least 1 BTC before I die.  Not even thinking about riches—it is a much deeper need for me, 1 BTC.  Then, your post...  I sat staring at your post, pondering it.

I shot my bolt with stablecoin reserves avoiding liquidation on the way down to $30k.  I typically keep only enough local fiat in the bank for immediate necessities, which are indeed necessities—I spend little, so it is a negligible amount; anyway, there is a privacy firewall between the bank and crypto-land.  That leaves volatile alts.  Most are already gone.  Part of remaining scraps is illiquid—locked up in staking, which takes 7–11 days to unlock (depends on the coin), or long-term locked for one large airdrop that I would have dumped long ago if it wasn’t locked.  They lock those shitcoins for a reason!  Altcoin protip, based on my altcoin experience:  If something has any type of lockup to prevent you from dumping, that itself suggests that it probably should be dumped.  Valuable things do not need lockup to inhibit people from dumping them.  Bitcoin is dominant when 100% of the BTC supply is freely floating.  (I have been intending to start an anti-POS thread about this financial manipulation.)

The rest of what’s left is nowhere near $20k in value right now—not even near $10k.  And those are things I expect to recover against BTC—swapping the thing that’s down more for the thing that’s down less is not a winning move.  Of course, most altcoins never recover after they fall against BTC.  Some probably will; I know the difference.  The “emergency reserve” is one of those, and I don’t have much of it left for any emergencies of an immediate life-or-death nature.  In the past six years, it has not kept up with BTC’s rises; it has overall lost about 97% against BTC, even as it rises somewhat against the dollar.  But it bounces back pretty well against BTC when both crash hard in a bear market, sometimes even starting before BTC bounces.

To get together $20k (or soon, $21k if we’re bouncing?) dollar cash ASAP is very far out of reach for me right now.  The margin account ate the assets that I could have used for such a thing.

Needless to say, I have been mulling a strategy to liquidate scraps in various potential near-future market conditions, to piece together a portion of a bitcoin.  Trying to estimate how to time what, to get the most BTC I can.  To give myself a headstart back towards 1 BTC.

You must be able to get payment for your labor one way or another. Just dedicate a portion of it to buying BTC on a regular basis and you'll probably get to 1 BTC. It won't happen quickly but it will slowly build. And even if you only got 0.5 BTC or 0.25 BTC that is still a hell of lot when you consider there is only 21 million of them.

I feel for you and I hope you can get back on your feet.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 320
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
EDIT: At least, i can extend my list of hobbies:

6. catching knives


more like catching falling chainsaws at this point.

next up: catching falling black holes

That’s called a margin account.  When it goes bad, and you keep throwing good money after bad.

If I had written off my BTC months ago and just kept other assets intact, then I would probably be able to buy at least 2–3 BTC right now—maybe more.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
EDIT: At least, i can extend my list of hobbies:

6. catching knives


more like catching falling chainsaws at this point.

next up: catching falling black holes
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 5637
Blackjack.fun-Free Raffle-Join&Win $50🎲
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 320
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
@death_wish: aim for one (1) BTC. This should be enough to set you up for life. Now is a golden opportunity to get it at a very low (relatively speaking) price point.

Thank you kindly.  You are right about getting at least 1 BTC.  I have been in a little bit of a daze trying to figure out how to scratch together purchase funds for that.  Before you posted that—thinking, Need 1 BTC.  Wrote to a friend that I need at least 1 BTC before I die.  Not even thinking about riches—it is a much deeper need for me, 1 BTC.  Then, your post...  I sat staring at your post, pondering it.

I shot my bolt with stablecoin reserves avoiding liquidation on the way down to $30k.  I typically keep only enough local fiat in the bank for immediate necessities, which are indeed necessities—I spend little, so it is a negligible amount; anyway, there is a privacy firewall between the bank and crypto-land.  That leaves volatile alts.  Most are already gone.  Part of remaining scraps is illiquid—locked up in staking, which takes 7–11 days to unlock (depends on the coin), or long-term locked for one large airdrop that I would have dumped long ago if it wasn’t locked.  They lock those shitcoins for a reason!  Altcoin protip, based on my altcoin experience:  If something has any type of lockup to prevent you from dumping, that itself suggests that it probably should be dumped.  Valuable things do not need lockup to inhibit people from dumping them.  Bitcoin is dominant when 100% of the BTC supply is freely floating.  (I have been intending to start an anti-POS thread about this financial manipulation.)

The rest of what’s left is nowhere near $20k in value right now—not even near $10k.  And those are things I expect to recover against BTC—swapping the thing that’s down more for the thing that’s down less is not a winning move.  Of course, most altcoins never recover after they fall against BTC.  Some probably will; I know the difference.  The “emergency reserve” is one of those, and I don’t have much of it left for any emergencies of an immediate life-or-death nature.  In the past six years, it has not kept up with BTC’s rises; it has overall lost about 97% against BTC, even as it rises somewhat against the dollar.  But it bounces back pretty well against BTC when both crash hard in a bear market, sometimes even starting before BTC bounces.

To get together $20k (or soon, $21k if we’re bouncing?) dollar cash ASAP is very far out of reach for me right now.  The margin account ate the assets that I could have used for such a thing.

Needless to say, I have been mulling a strategy to liquidate scraps in various potential near-future market conditions, to piece together a portion of a bitcoin.  Trying to estimate how to time what, to get the most BTC I can.  To give myself a headstart back towards 1 BTC.
newbie
Activity: 19
Merit: 0
It might be possible we go sub-20k. That would approach 2017 ATH.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 17063
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
Five minutes craft from your friend Fillippone.
When Lambo?
Which Lambo?


legendary
Activity: 2050
Merit: 1184
Never selling
@ImThour Sobs despairingly at good-old-loyal-boi 200MA. It's not over yet but agree, Fed news will move something big. Everyone's expecting up to a full point, majority 0.75 so anything more than that and we'll definitely visit 16k. I'm hoping Powell does a silly and we get half point instead, then we find some 30k respite.

Doesn't matter in the long run, but I'd really like to be not-so-stressed right now heh.

I don't think the basis point increase matters, it's more what the Fed says. With the ECB having a emergency meeting, the Fed would have to be considering this very carefully.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
If 20k falls, 14K could be max pain 



(or in a crazy zany world max torture point 11.5k ish....)
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 3724
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
@ImThour Sobs despairingly at good-old-loyal-boi 200MA. It's not over yet but agree, Fed news will move something big. Everyone's expecting up to a full point, majority 0.75 so anything more than that and we'll definitely visit 16k. I'm hoping Powell does a silly and we get half point instead, then we find some 30k respite.

Doesn't matter in the long run, but I'd really like to be not-so-stressed right now heh.
legendary
Activity: 1891
Merit: 3096
All good things to those who wait
There are some signs the bottom is 20K-ish. At least for now. Who knows what company will be liquidated next and crash the market. Although this is not directly related to BTCitcoin, the fact that any collapsing shitcoin can trigger such a crash is creating additional FUD than usual. It will take time for the people to forget about these events and restore their trust. But people have short memory. I guess after 3 years we will see the same story repeating: Because of the supply shock and mass adoption BTCitcoin will rise to new heights. Meanwhile the new defi, doge, nft, etc. will emerge attracting many n00bs who think getting rich is very easy and you don't need BTCitcoin for that. And then again the ponzis will blow up causing billions of losses, tears and tragedies. So, knowing this we should continue our silent accumulation of precious BTCitcoins. Now almost everyone may get a whole coin. This is not a chance to be missed. The whales and institutions won't miss it. So, if the price falls below 20K it will be for a very short period.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 320
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
Hold onto your Mcdonald's hats 20k is about to go.

At least we have decoupled from the Nasdaq, lol.

Nah, all those "i am waiting for $20k to buy bitcorn" nocoiners will finally save us. probably [NOT. —D.W.]

FTFY.

I called one of those yesterday, and told him to get ready to buy ASAP if it’s not already too late to get set up in time.  Reminded him of what he said before about $20k.  Reply:  It may go lower.

This same nocoiner got into an argument with me in 2018 at $3k.  “It will go to zero.”  He still refuses to admit that he was mistaken not to buy at $3k.

“I will buy at $20k” nocoiners are nocoiners for a reason.


Edit:  I know you were being sarcastic, but I replied seriously to that little “probably”.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1265
Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

~35% portfolio = BTC

I'm not sure how I took the extremely bold step, but now I'm 80% in BTC.

40% long-term stash and 40% short-term (for a bounce to $30k or something).

After a few years of hodling you will realize you are 99.99% in Btc because the value just keeps climbing
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2050
Merit: 1184
Never selling
Where will it go? Already 20k and counting backwards. I am not expecting it to go below 20k. I think some institutional investor might come to its rescue at that level.

Expect the unexpected, you'll feel better that way when/if it happens.
hero member
Activity: 2156
Merit: 803
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Where will it go? Already 20k and counting backwards. I am not expecting it to go below 20k. I think some institutional investor might come to its rescue at that level.
legendary
Activity: 2050
Merit: 1184
Never selling
I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

gambling addiction

Question or judgment?

I intended to correct something I told Jay (need to catch up with his posts):  Technically, I do have a gambling habit.  I have profited before from investing BTC in casino bankrolls, and I wish to do so again.  Technically, it is gambling:  The house takes the EV+ side of the EV- bet offered to players.  The truism that “the house always wins” is incorrect:  The house often loses bets, but its average converges on profit for the same mathematical reason that winning players eventually fall into losses.  I said that I never gambled, and I didn’t even think of it in this context, because investing in a casino bankroll is not what most people mean by “gambling”.

I have never gambled even one satoshi of my own BTC on the EV- side.

Question. No offence, I didn't mean anything by it.
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 320
Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.
I think these things happen because of addication. death_wish can shed some light on this I'm sure.

What kind of addiction?  I never do drugs; I am very strictly against the recreational abuse of psychotropics.  Except in such circumstances as having just lost a fortune, I don’t drink immoderately; I rarely drink at all.  I don’t have any history of problems with gambling—perhaps because I understand the mathematics of gambling; if someone offers me a game of chance, I will only bet on the EV+ side in the amount proved optimal by the Kelly Criterion.  Not sure what you mean.

gambling addiction

Question or judgment?

I intended to correct something I told Jay (need to catch up with his posts):  Technically, I do have a gambling habit.  I have profited before from investing BTC in casino bankrolls, and I wish to do so again.  Technically, it is gambling:  The house takes the EV+ side of the EV- bet offered to players.  The truism that “the house always wins” is incorrect:  The house often loses bets, but its average converges on profit for the same mathematical reason that winning players eventually fall into losses.  I said that I never gambled, and I didn’t even think of it in this context, because investing in a casino bankroll is not what most people mean by “gambling”.

I have never gambled even one satoshi of my own BTC on the EV- side.
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