Particularly this cycle we seem to be better off by preparing to act and project a little different than before. While your last big sell near the former cycle's top and rebuy close enough to the last cycle's bottom turned out well in terms of numbers (Bitcoin stash increase), it might be better to sell along the future uptrend going up (starting at a reasonable treshold no less than $100k) and in turn buy in batches again, but earlier on the way down. (EDIT: Playing it more safe).
ETF's and Paper Bitcoin are changing the game quite a bit, so better be prepared for possible future actions of our new found "friends" who are just started to explore the market.
I still haven’t firmed up my sell plan yet for the imminent bull run but I have a vague idea of what I want to do. Previously in past cycles I would think about selling in Q3 or Q4 of the year AFTER the halving.
I don’t want to take the risk of assuming we will peak in Q4 of 2025 so going to sell some earlier, like you suggested. I was thinking of beginning to sell at just over $100,000. I might regret it if we pump to something silly like $300,000 but better to be sate than sorry. I plan to diversify and buy multiple rental properties with some of my sold Bitcoin. I will be unloading 25% or possibly slightly more next year. The ideal life is a juicy passive income and a handsome Bitcoin stash, this is my plan, my desire.
Obviously I will hold a significant fiat stash to buy Bitcoin back much cheaper in the obvious bear market that will follow. Ideal scenario is $250,000 top next year and a bear market bottom of something like $70,000 in 2026/27 but ideal scenarios never play out do they. Too many people cheerleading for $1,000,000 per coin which obviously is not going to happen this decade.
My sell plans are further complicated by my NJ property taxes.
I have a decent amount of BTC at around 25-28k.
If I sell a coin this year at 80k profit would by 52k
That would knock me out of the NJ senior property tax freeze program
and my property tax would rise from 7200 to 10600 plus it would be at least two more year of raises before I can get qualified for the freeze so I would lose five years of 7200:paying at least five years at 10,600:thats a minimum of 17000 in extra property tax.
If I cash a coin this year at 80k
so basically I am forced to not sell any more than 0.1 or 0.2 coins this year.
It is an interesting math problem the math seems to say sell very little for 2024 and deal with 2025 when we get there.
I pretty much see I need to leave NJ for tax purposes.
and I must sell very little BTC until I am in A new state