Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3459. (Read 26712695 times)

Explanation

Those are some very interesting visuals that you put together AlcoHoDL - to literally spin information in such a way that largely reinforces information that we feel that we already know but surely provides some possible ways to view the information and to gain some new perspectives about what we are seeing - including that some of us might not realized certain aspects of the information until we see it presented/spun that way.

To some extent I see some advantages for you to have started the data in late 2014 as you did - and maybe some of the data would have been a bit more confusing in 2013/2014 - but really it seems that Bitstamp has market information going back to about October 2011 - even though surely several times I have argued that it may not really be very representative to attempt to make financial proclamation before 2012-ish.. but still some market dynamics were already coming into existence in those earlier days/years in bitcoinlandia.

For sure, we can find a lot of values in measuring BTC spot price, especially if we are trying to consider what our various onloading into BTC costs might have been and the various points in which we may have wanted to unload some or all of our bitcoins and potentially be in profits along the way.  

Many of us have grown to appreciate that so far in BTC price history,. BTC has not had any periods of greater than 3.5 years-ish in which any purchases would have been at a loss and we can easily see that by looking at any BTC price peak and then going 3.5 years after that to see that the BTC price is at least at the level of the peak price or higher.  

At the same time, even without really knowing the particulars of normie BTC hodlrs/accumulators, it just seems so much more prudent to have more than just a mere cycle (4 years) under the belt before (generally speaking) any normie HODLer/accumulator should be getting into the employment of serious BTC liquidation strategies... of course, there is going to be variance in terms of the level of aggressiveness and/or level of overaccumulation reached that each normie BTC HODLer/accumulator needs to assess for himself/herself... and surely there can be individualistic comfort levels of just knowing it when you see it.. but at the same time, there should be some cautions regarding cashing out way too much BTC too soon.. which is another error that normies tend to make - besides the even more common error of failing/refusing to get started in BTC accumulation in the first place.

For sure various kinds of moving averages may well come in quite handy too.. especially for longer term term BTC HODLers - but also perhaps for guys (and gal) attempting to time larger BTC price swing trends in terms of figuring out some aspects of BTC portfolio management... whether still in BTC accumulation mode or maintenance or liquidation mode... for sure we can find some values in the linger terms ones such as 104 weeks (2 years) or 208 weeks  (4 years)., and so many times many of us will be kind of winging it, too, when it comes to making determinations regarding if we want to engage in higher levels of accumulation or liquidation ..   Oh by the way, I would imagine that that some of those longer moving averages would be quite boring in terms of even showing much if any overlap in cycles... so the shorter moving averages of 52 and less will have way more overlapping periods.

This is what happened last time in 2018 when Hash Ribbon - Capitulation occurred on $BTC. Price went down 50%.

https://twitter.com/RsiBitcoin/status/1535147312900517889

Explanation

Explanation

Please don't confuse alpacas with llamas.

I am here because of ideals that I have put before profit for years, to my own detriment—a habit that I have been trying to change, thus far without success.

I am here because after long study and excogitation, I concluded that Bitcoin offers some slender hope of solving dire economic, social, and political problems for which I know of no other solution.  When I behave as an economically irrational actor, it is only because I rationally value that over the size of my own wallet.

I am not here for evangelical sermons about “faith”.  Frankly, it is not something with which I want to associate myself.  Not at all.  Not when it is serious.

I also observe that religions are poor financial investments—except for their promoters, who get rich off of them.  For comparison, last I heard, it cost about $300k in total to “go clear” in Scientology.

That said, I doubt that Mircea Popescu ever got rich—his wild claims to the contrary notwithstanding.  For the newbies:  That was the last time I saw someone try to build a serious Bitcoin cult.  In the Bitcoin microcosm, MP got some traction and some followers around 2013–2017, or thereabouts.  What disturbs me is to see this one published in Bitcoin Magazine.

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This is not a criticism of Bitcoin.  (Protip:  Bitcoin does not consist of the opinions of a few mad hatters in WO.)

This is me making a clear public statement of my position—to preserve my own reputation, in case this particular discussion is ever found and linked to any of my other pseudonyms.  I do not wish to be associated with “Bitcoin is a religion” stuff—not when it’s not fun-and-funny!—not when it is so deadly serious that believers lash out at me for criticizing it.  I do not wish to make myself look like a lunatic.

The Internet never forgets.

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You must be new to Bitcoin.  Eventually, you will learn the Bitcoin lore.

The early versions of Bitcoin were riddled with flaws.  It took years to refine Bitcoin into what it is now.

If you want one specific flaw, try this:  >184 billion BTC were created out of thin air on August 15, 2010.  It took more than “a few months” to shake that out:  Someone exploited it 1 year, 7 months after the Bitcoin software was first published.  It was a very basic integer overflow bug, nothing special.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Value_overflow_incident

OK, how about a crash?  On March 12, 2013, Bitcoin suffered an accidental hardfork that qualifies as a crash of the whole network, IMO.

https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0050.mediawiki

As of 2022, IMO, the underlying cause of that crash has still not been fixed:  The consensus code is married to specific versions of database libraries, to avoid breaking like that again.  I call that a workaround, not a proper fix.  There are various proposals and research projects that could properly fix the problem—maybe someday.

Transaction malleability was a severe design flaw.  I have mentioned it several times.  Although it cannot be exploited alone, it was leveraged in practice to build exploits stealing money from poorly-designed, insecure services; early Bitcoin was chock full of idiots who didn’t know what the hell they were doing, such as the idiot who ran Mt. Gox.  Worse:  Transaction malleability completely prevents the secure construction of whole classes of systems that can be built on top of Bitcoin, including but not limited to the Lightning Network.

Segwit fixed transaction malleability, for Segwit transactions only; it can’t be fixed altogether without a hardfork.  One of the major reasons for my wrath at Bcashers was that they wanted for Bitcoin to be stuck with this design-level security flaw.

Overall, indeed, I draw a bright line at Segwit:  Segwit activation was when Bitcoin matured.  Before Segwit, Bitcoin was high-risk experimental software—sort of like much of defi today.  After Segwit, Bitcoin became world-class, institutional-grade serious financial software.  Although the maturation of Bitcoin was much fuzzier and more prolonged, I focus on Segwit because it was a huge improvement—much moreso even than most Bitcoiners realize (or will acknowledge).

I am a bit nonplussed at some people’s criticism of Saylor for having dismissed Bitcoin in 2013.  Whatever his reasons may have been, I myself admit that Bitcoin had credibility problems before the Segwit activation in 2017; and it was not unreasonable for Saylor to wait until 2020 before jumping in with large amounts of money.  In 2013, it wasn’t wrong to decline the risk—just as in 2009, 2013, or 2016, it also wasn’t wrong for some early adopters with high risk tolerance to take risks on an experimental-quality financial network.

Satoshi advanced the state of the art:  He solved in theory and in practice a seemingly impossible problem, the prevention of double-spends without a central authority.  But it was Core that made the system production-quality.  I would not entrust billions of dollars worth of value to Satoshi’s original code (LOL).

Moreover, in my extremely not-humble opinion, the greatest single practical contribution by Bitcoin to security as a process was Gitian (now deprecated).  That started in 2011, after Satoshi disappeared.  It was a practical answer to “Reflections on trusting trust” (Thompson, 1984).  Bitcoin developers were some of the pioneers here; nowadays, Reproducible Builds are an industry best practice for secure open-source software.

Explanation

Explanation

All I was saying is that it would complicate your return, perhaps.
It's much more 'involved' than a single person LLC.
You would have to decide if you want to be a C-corp or a S-corp. If S-corp, then "owners need to draw a reasonable salary".
You would also need an "operating agreement".
Your CPA can probably fetch all that info, but here is something to start:

https://www.upcounsel.com/two-member-llc

EDIT: if the second person in LLC is your wife, then it is even more complicated (depending on in which state the LLC was formed).
In 9 states an LLC with wife is treated as a single member LLC (with simplified tax treatment). New Jersey is NOT a community property state, but Nevada and Texas are.
BTW, you don't have to form LLC in your home state; in fact, many are formed in Nevada for some reason.
CPA should know all this and, perhaps, already informed you. Good luck!

I sell a lot of gear .

I wont be selling with this account.

I will be using the LLC account to sell from now on.

I did a schedule c and used philipma1957 to sell here and on ebay for years and years and years.

I will not be doing a schedule c with the two person LLC .

I will be closing the schedule c business.

So since I have sold 10s of thousands of gear in the past I want zero confusion when I sell off a lot of gear.

Explanation

Explanation

No.  (They would, however, break the elliptic curve cryptography that Bitcoin uses for digital signatures.)

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I’m not sure what the point was for the rest of that post.  I simply wanted to correct a technical misconception, as I not infrequently do in the technical forum.

OK.... What the fuck?

Satoshi Nakamoto wrote production software that has stood up to 13 years of the most difficult pressure a production distributed database could possibly...

... no wait a moment.  That sentence is so amazing already that it can't just be wrapped up with a few more nouns and adjectives.  He invented a trust minimized distributed database.  That in itself is miraculous.  It had never been done before.  And now that it is done, it cannot be reproduced very easily at all.

He knew he had one shot to get it.

And calling it "production software"?  Well it IS that.  But on a level unlike just about anything else in "production".  I suppose software that runs the power grid.  Or perhaps the firmware that runs certain sorts of medical equipment or systems, might come close....

It is art.  But this is not like some moving still life painted by a master.  It's the damned Sistine Chapel.

This is as believable that one person has actually done this, as someone having invented a time machine.  These things don't just work.  You don't spend a weekend typing furiously and coming out with software that will change the world... just like that... version 0.1.

Yes.  There have been bugs.  And there have been tweaks, AND improvements.  AND there are things that could have been different.  Questions that still hang in the air.  Will the disappearing block reward matter?  Will quantum computers break SHA2? Is Craig Wright gay?  Only time will tell.

But consider the ridiculous amount of thought that had to have gone into making something this perfect.  This perfectly balanced.

Who tested it?  Where is the version that crashed.  The version that people played with for a few months before they found the flaw.  Before they figured out a way to profit unfairly.  Right.  That never happened.  The cheaters had to write new software to pull that off... Bitcoin was incorruptible.

A wise man once said "Quick, no time for explanations... give me your pants."

That is, in my humble opinion, as close as anyone has ever come to explaining how this is even POSSIBLE in the first place.

To put this as delicately as I can, with gross understatement:  It does not help with the “Bitcoin is a cult” meme.

Yes, I sometimes speak of Bitcoin in quasi-religious terms.  I am clearly satirizing and spoofing the nocoiner criticism that “Bitcoin is a cult”.  I am having fun:  Ridiculing the nocoiner notion that I am in some sort of a cult, and also taking a self-deprecating comedic look at myself as a zealous Bitcoiner.  If I couldn’t laugh about this, I think there would be something wrong with me.

This scribbler is serious.

Explanation

I tend to agree....


"bitcoin seems a bit undervalued..."



https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1534946812506918919?cxt=HHwWjsC-ycr_nM0qAAAA

Was your May rally to $70k confirmed by math and bad science? I can't understand how you got it wrong.