Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3487. (Read 26713348 times)

Sounds like you have it all figured out.

If we don't go down and then Up, we will largely get stuck in a zone until November - which is largely saying sideways.

Could be.  I suppose that it does not hurt to have a backup plan in the event that down before up does not play out as you are anticipating (on the edge of your seat, I imagine).


I will go where ever this pig takes me... that is quoting from BillyJoeAllen in 2011 or whatever... hahahaha

6 months of sideways does seem a bit long.. and depressing.. but if that's what is in the cards, then so be it...

I might be exaggerating a wee bit.. because if we do not end up getting down (below $25,401 or down to the 200-week moving average or below).. and we are largely stay between $28k and $42k, then that surely would not be the end of the world, and surely allows normies (who are informed about bitcoin to continue to accumulate).. I hate to have such a solid opinion, but I do appreciate that going below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at $35,800) for a considerable amount of time (3 weeks already) could cause a considerable amount of time (even something like the 6 months that you are suggesting) to reverse and get back into UPpity mode.  It could reverse more quickly than 6 months.. and it could take longer than 6 months to reverse.. I hate to get too wedded into proclaiming that any kind of reversal has to take a certain amount of time to play out... even though it does seem difficult to presume UPpity is going to happen very easily while we are still a bit below the 100-week moving average..


I looked at the Pete Rizzo tweet and the referenced article, and I am pretty sure that is referencing the same author of the wealthy elite gentlemen thread..

Astrohacker (his forum name was Atlas)

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/i-am-pretty-confident-we-are-the-new-wealthy-elite-gentlemen-12156

Explanation

 


https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1532886850922287104

Invested absolutely everything he owned in Bitcoin at $15, 11 years ago.

King 👑


https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1532703931758936064

Explanation

Ok.. no problem..



oh no !!!  Please don't.



#nohomo


oh gawd.    That's even a worse point, then.


O.k  Those are fair enough points.


 I will argue with you about it.

We come from various perspectives, and likely ONLY about 1% of the world's population is invested into bitcoin.

There is likely a considerable amount of prudence for a large number of fourm members to keepo some of their value in both worlds.  Sure, if you want to live some kind of extreme existence of having 100% in bitcoin (or crypto) then that is your choice....

And, you seem to be getting distracted if you believe that the topic of this thread has ever suggested that we should go 100% bitcoin (or crypto).. the other pairing of this topic is the USD.. so I doubt that we are even close to shedding or shrugging off the relevance of the dollar to this topic or to suggest that we transition into a new topic, when we likely still ONLY have around 1% world adoption into bitcoin, at best (not that we know the adoption numbers with any kind of meaningful precision, but 1% is a way better number to presume (whether we are referring to quantity of world monetization value in bitcoin or number of people in bitcoin who are stocked and fully loaded - to use a currently inept term) than to be projecting that we are even close to being able to transition into some kind of a system that is 100% bitcoin (and crypto blah blah blah)...


Of course there tends to be a lot of nuance when attempting to make comparisons between various stable coins that might have backing of some sort, the USD of course is the other pairing of the topic of this thread.. so it is surely relevant, and even if we believe it is a scam, it is quite likely the strongest of all of the fiats, so we are ongoingly going to be referencing issues related to it..  and fuck Do Kwon and his likely knowing scam terra/Luna bullshit.. NOT even easy to give him much if any credibility.. and makes Janet Yellen look like a saint in comparison.. hahahaha #nohomo.


There may be some truth to the assertion that a lot of smart bitcoiners peruse and/or participate in this thread.. but at the same time, this is not a technical thread, so there are many times that the overall WO audience is not really equipped for some of the heavy-ass issues... and sometimes there will be threads that are dedicated to some of the more specialized topics that might be more appropriate in attempting to get a more focused audience - including that they might be specifically looking at the questions/subject matter that is being presented.

Even your seemingly hard-on of a recent focus on POS versus POW.. there is a thread that is already really great on that topic. .which quite a few folks with similar interests..   the thread has 8 pages, and is ONLY a bit more than 3 months old.. so for sure current discussions and active participants (not self-moderated either.. so they would not even need to like you.. hahahahaaha).

[Megathread] The long-known PoW vs. PoS debate

Sometimes, when I read some of the posts in that thread I have no fucking clue when trying to read some of their technical points, but for someone like you, who seems to be way more technical than me and who seems to be currently interested in that topic, it would seem to be a good thing for you to chime into that thread.. either to tell them that they are crazy, or they can tell you that you are crazy or you can all join just hug it out kumbaya style.  

In other words, this thread is filled with wannabe bitcoin-maxi generalists and jokers (if anyone wants a label?) and even if we may well touch upon some of the hot topics of the day in bitcoinlandia, frequently we may well link out to those kinds of more specified topics rather than getting in full-fledged debate mode in these here parts that may well end up causing this thread to become too focused on one narrow topic rather than more general bitcoin happenings..

So, yeah, you may well complain that some of the members in this thread here are not responding to some of your bitcoin related points on a deep enough level, and part of the reason could well be that we are not deep people in these here parts..  hahahahaha (maybe I am just self reflecting?, but whatever... oc course there are some members who are deeper and who are more  technical, but still some of those guys might not be participating in this here thread to get bogged down in some of the more narrow (even though still bitcoin-related) topics either.)


I have heard that some people curate their twitter feeds, so that they might be able to filter ut some of the more noisy chatter.  I do agree with you that if people do not say anything, then the conversation has a tendency to devolve.. so I am not sure.  Of course, in the end, members can post whatever the fuck they want in this thread, and sure some will continue to post that kind of loosely relevant and shilling/pumping kind of stuff, and say - "everyone else is using the word 'crypto' without even describing what they mean... blah blah blah.. "   hahahahaha.. which seems to be a pretty lame excuse.. but surely those kinds of excuses do happen.

I would not claim to have any kind of specific and personal knowledge regarding how the various financial instruments are used since I do not tend to use them, even though I understand that there could be ways to use various kinds of financial instruments in ways that are profitable.. my tendency is to largely play around with ongoing longs.. and maybe closing some of them from time to time, but hardly any leverage except sometimes I will use debt instruments for various kinds of cashflow supplementing.

Of course, I understand some of the basics (or is it lingo of the trading/gambling business) including the ideas of margin leverage (and using multiples) and getting called and covering your position and things like that.. so I am not sure if there would be any need for you to describe or explain any further in terms of the context that you were suggesting (or the points that you were seeming to want to make) that there is extreme risk when some of the inexperienced normies (who might want to get rich quicker than is feasible) using leverage (even though there are possibilities for great pay off if the person using those kinds of financial tools get the price direction right and they are able to close their position(s) before get reversal comes that ends up causing them to get reckt or perhaps going into the negative when they could have closed in the positive, but they got too greedy, etc etc etc.).

Wash trading, preferred customers, rebates… “But, but, we are a strongly regulated exchange by NY law…”

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/02/cftc-sues-gemini-over-bitcoin-futures-case-from-2017/

Explanation

Explanation

made my day

Whur be the liquid nitrogen cooling bruh

Off Grid: A Bitcoin Mining Story




https://youtu.be/4UwRMOXWIVk

Explanation

If we don't go down now! (In the next 2 weeks or 10 days)

Then we will probably go to somewhere between $37K < > $42K for the short term and then we will have to be dragged down trough the last part of July > then full August > then full September > then full October!!! > Then and last the first part of November and we are done with dumping. And we will have then to start growing.   

Do you think you will keep handling this garbage again from July to November??   

Explanation

Rather, I thank you, Gachapin.  Such courtesy is rare on the Internet; and the effort is worthwhile if somebody cares!  I hope that whatever I have written can help you advocate for Bitcoin, warn other Bitcoiners about the threat, and protect people who may consider POS altcoins from being lured by the pernicious, plausibly-seeming, subtly manipulative false promises of POS.

Quick clarification of a few things—longer replies forthcoming later:


In the relevant post, OgNasty did not mention altcoins at all.  He said something about how people are now excited by a 5% price movement in BTC, whereas it used to take a 500% movement to get people’s attention.

I began writing a reply to the effect that traders seeking that magnitude of short-term returns are now either trading altcoins, or trading BTC-PERP at high leverage.  Sure, people can still get that fast 500% speculating on BTC price movements!  (Warning to newbies:  That’s at risk of instant, fully realized, unrecoverable loss from the market moving against you even 1%.  I like the concept of perps; but I would never try trading them on leverage (or even at all) unless I studied real quant stuff with fancy equations—mathematical finance, not TA astrology—wrote a good bot, backtested it, etc.)


No, I don’t expect that kind of stability!  It was clearly wishful thinking.

I do recognize the need for price-stable currency, in addition to BTC.  I am not proposing a solution; I am stating a problem.  Anyone who still uses fiat shitcoins in permissioned banking systems is not permitted to argue with me about that:  You are using an altcoin, a central bank altcoin.  And the worst stablecoin scam is USD—the dollar itself.  It isn’t even stable:  Its price volatility for the past year-plus has been too large to qualify as “stable”, even if its volatility is still much lower than BTC’s.  Hey, maybe Do Kwon and Janet Yellen should get married!


I recognize the need to foster a local culture that chews up shitcoin shills and spits them out; and in that regard, I thank you for your longtime, sort of unofficial leadership handing out batslaps.  I may walk a fine line when I am seeking a more nuanced discussion of important topics.  WO is not generally a place for nuance, but there is the type of place with some highly intelligent regulars who sincerely care about these issues.

Dealing with some recent messes, I have recently had to spend some time reading “crypto-Twitter” (which is usually nonexistent in my world).  I think that my eyeballs will soon start bleeding from sheer horror; and I’m pretty sure that that’s what WO would eventually look like, without Jay raining hellfire on anyone who tries to pump some garbage here.

---

Edit:  Tweak wording to disambiguate the intent of a statement scrawled in haste.  I’m pretty damn sure that both Jay and OgNasty know what leveraged perp trading is, lol.

Exactly this is what ignorant people proposing POS need to understand:



Thank you so much for this post and its high educational quality.
Explanations like these will be of unbelievable value in the coming months and years, when POW/BTC will be attacked. (It has already begun)


TL;DR

Why you picking random dates?

Zoom out a bit.

Who fucking cares about the calendar year - just because mainstream (financial) pundits tend to gravitate towards these various kinds of yearly, quarterly, monthly metrics.

Sure all assets have a certain amount of their own ways of cycling, but it seems to me that bitcoin needs to be assessed within its own terms which might be appreciating a kind of four year dynamic or at least attempting to spot reasonable representative periods that do not overly skew the analysis in one direction or another.

In this particular case, we have some weird shit that happened in early 2020 that could cause us to want to use the timeframe around the March 2020 liquidation event as a starting point; however, if we want to attempt to remove some of the extremes that end up overly advantaging bitcoin, we could just start with something like $10k as our bouncing off point.   That $10k seems to be more than fair, even if it does kind of disadvantage bitcoin a wee bit.. so we have 3x UPpity for bitcoin in less than 2 years, and how is that doing in comparison to inflation?

I guess my main point would be NOT to be making overall proclamations about how bitcoin is doing relative to cash or equities or gold or whatever your comparison without putting it in some kind of a more fair context... and sure, no problem if you just happen to want to say something about that shorter period.. but if yo are suggesting bitcoin is not keeping up with inflation.. that is fucking bullshit in term s of what has been going on with bitcoin and also what is likely to continue to happen with bitcoin.. even if the shorter term past or even the short term future is not exactly clear... while at the same time, many of us bitcoiners would not be suggesting that anyone should be expecting any kind of meaningful return in less than 4 year timelines.. and even expecting anything after 4 years might be expecting too much.. even though historically bitcoin has actually never had any 3.5 year period in which it did not end up in at least nominal dollar profits... and we know that if we zoom out and don't get too locked up in any specific period.. or we even look at bitcoin bottoms, bitcoin's price performance is much greater than any selective shorter periods that are ONLY showing the lowest of returns... such as starting to measure bitcoin's price performance by starting form a BTC price top, which tends to NOT be a very representative or genuine way of assessing bitcoin's price performance anyhow.



Why do you have such a tendency to frequently frame matters in terms of "the good ole days used to be better", but now "things are going to shit?"  Asking for a friend.

The fact of the matter remains that there are all kinds of things going on in bitcoin including that we better figure out that its adopters are going to get way more diverse and include all kinds of folks.. from all walks of life .. (do I even need to list all of the ranges both in terms of who they are, what their motives might be, or how they might want to change bitcoin?).     


You are not inaccurate to bring in these matters, but what is the purpose in terms of either wanting to paint a negative picture or over complicate matters? 

Let's just wing it and stick with nominal... the details will work themselves out if you zoom the fuck out. 

In other words, the nominal 200-week moving average is currently $22,123. 

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Why over complicate matters in terms of being negative and striving to exaggerate some kind of a negative picture.. when in the end, many of us already know that bitcoin is doing quite well, relatively speaking.. likely the best asymmetric bet that could haver been made in the past 8 years or so, and continues to be a great asymmetric bet (to the upside, of course).


From my perhaps less than smartie pants perspective, you have not pointed out any meaningful or significant problem, yet.


No need to have a grudge.. it serves a similar purpose as bitcoin, except bitcoin is likely somewhere in the ballpark of 1,000x better (but only priced less than 1/10 of gold), so no need to have any kind of grudge.. you can choose how much if any you want to invest in gold.. seems a wee bit unnecessary in my thinking, even though there might be some narrow Armageddon-like use cases for it.. perhaps? perhaps?

Edit:  I see Torque already more eloquently addressed some of my above points.


Down before up...

Where have I heard that before?

Explanation