Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3562. (Read 26720873 times)

....and whatever is on that asteroid they will eventually snag

Can't they just print more gold to stop that happening?

I thought most gold was paper IOUs.

Also, we are at quarterly expiration

At which point, does BTC reach less volatility?


Would you embrace this or no?


Judging by some of the comments in here over the years, some of you defo seem to not like volatility... least not when it is working against you (price down)


Personally, I see it as a feature.... one that people seem to forget for some reason .... "this time is different"



How would you feel, with less volatility?......  what do I mean by that ? well lets call it , not an average high to low of 82.5% , for example...


But one day, you would think that "it will be different" , even potentially desirable ? (for some anyway)



How about you? Do you long for less volatility (yeah, that includes two way price movement)  or are you "happy" with the current volatility?


I had long assumed, that, eventually the volatility will dampen, as more and more value becomes locked in.....and I still assume this.... though starting to wonder , where that tipping point could be.... and what , pushes it there? is it actually traditional instruments like futures/options etc?  


How do you guys feel about it?


Personally I like the volatility, and also I personally feel that people should be linking cycle lows, rather than cycle highs to "chart" bitcoin

ps, what if that volatility were to become say 7% between cycles, as in each cycle BTC high, or low , moves up by 7%...  or a 10 year doubling time ?

Explanation

BTW, this grinding down move (as seen in btc in the last 2 wk) is usually followed by a sharp upside (or downside).
Timing wise, it should occur in the next 2-10 days aka before or after the week and month end.
To me it looks 70/30 for upside vs downside, but opinions may vary.
If upside, we should travel to 38-41.5K; if down, should re-test around the 25.5, don't want to even consider something worse.
We shall see.

Like this too

Nice post, thanks for the thoughtfulness.


I am open to it.... I am open to other methodology too..... I am not the highlander,  there CAN be more than one.... maybe even there SHOULD be? (but that is another discussion)


One thing though, some of the issues all this will solve, are NOT GARBAGE, I do not consider them garbage problems and I do not consider the eventual solutions to be garbage either. My hope/vision here is a more inclusive system, that reaches each and every person that wishes to connect to it, and makes it easier for them. Along with inclusivity, and the opportunity this could bring, especially to the "unbanked" , but across the board......there are also liquidity benefits too, along with decentralisation and distribution and disintermediation. So I firmly believe that these things are utterly worthy, and indeed are born of the same ethos as BTC.


* I Like this line



Anyway, I honestly do not mind how we get there, I just hope, and am interested in getting there, and I enjoy the experimentation, and the thought process.


Finally, last thought....... and I would like to disconnect it from the conversation above.... but......... if we were to play a thought experiment out, what would "better than Bitcoin" look like?  and I wonder, how many would be able to evaluate and process a token, cryptocurrency, or even a totally new concept.... should one come up?  Same with, pointing out or finding, evaluating weaknesses in Bitcoin.... are they things that should be acknowledged ? or even explored ? and ways to fill the gap, or improve on Bitcoin ? even if it is via simplification rather than adding bells and whistles..  I will be honest with you, personally, I try and force myself into thinking of Bitcoin or any other project or cryptocurrency etc like this. I mean, I love it....but , I am not married to it. What if there were a BETTER way to do things (NO NOT SAYING ITS "SHITCOINS" NOT AT ALL) , but just like people used to love gold, and yeah give it 5000 years lol, and we eventually come up with BTC.... lol. I wonder what the next step looks like ? Very large chances are I will never know, and I will be dead as the dodo by then... but I still think about it.

I think my first back of the envelope calculation about this scenario was pointing to 300,000 USD.
Damn inflation.

Explanation

Funny, because we were just talking about it in the WO....

You read the WO, do you?

I don't find a reason to consider this funny. Pretty logical thinking of saylor and I like his perspective.

Funny... Saylor just tweeted about the BTC layers....


Six Layer Model of the Bitcoin Economy:

1 - Monetary Protocol (#Bitcoin)
2 - Transaction Protocol (#Lightning⚡️)
3 - Applications (BTC Exchanges/Banks/Payments)
4 - Derivatives (BTC backed Securities/Currencies)
5 - Products (Devices with BTC)
6 - Services (Offerings with BTC)


https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1530219919106887681?cxt=HHwWgsC-qZa6t7wqAAAA

I think the most straightforward way for this to happen in a trust minimized, or trust distributed fashion is for it to be built on a Bitcoin sidechain.  Something like Liquid would be perfect.  It could be tweaked for more or less decentralization.  But I think one sort of new "bank" idea would be companies that develop and maintain BTC sidechains where tokens can be issued etc.

The tradeoffs are worth considering.  Do we need to most highly secure immutable chain for this?  No. 

For example, if a company wanted to issue some sort of expiring coupon for good or services, or promotion, then once the promotion is done then all of that info could even be trashed.  If it was a fedarated sidechain that kind of database (blockchain) management would be handled by the fedaration, which would then collect a fee for the handling.  All this nonsense never touches the BTC chain, or at most puts a hash opf a transaction in an OP_RETURN.

An example where one may do that...  Title registration.  Want to record ownership of physical property on a blockchain?  Again a distributed layer two could be used  It would inherit the BTC security.  This could also be a fedarated chain.  Pehaps a group of title companies, banks and even governments.  We don'ty all need a copy of this, but it is good if it is distributed in a fashion that creates enough redundancy for it to be resilient to all sorts of problems.  And APIs could exist that query it from a WEB interface or the like.  You could even have free/paid tiers of access as well as a way for the owner to prove ownership for free.

Honestly, we have two camps out there right now:

1.  Throw everything on ETH or Chainline, or BSV(omit) or whatever train wreck layer one people are dreaming up!   Tokenize all the things!! File storage on the blockchain!!! 

2.  All of that is stupid!  The ONLY reason for a blockchain is bitcoin. Decentralization HAS to be a wide as possible!  Blocks should be smaller!  Etc.

Both camps miss the point.  BITCOIN will back all of this.  But we can shovel all the garbage we do not need to have on the base layer onto these sorts of things.  Also centralization to differing extents in different uses has tradeoffs that we likely WANT.  For example the companies and governments involved can spend the money and resources to spin up these giant databases that we do not need everyone to have a copy of etc.

This is the reason why, when I played with Liquid I saw so much potential.  Back gets nuanced tradeoffs.  And he understands how to build a PRODUCT on top of Bitcoin while doing the least amount of footprint on the main chain, but gaining a lot of advantages.  Don't like their service?  Too expensive?  Too centralized?  Well find one that fits your needs better... Or build your own!

Anyway.  I think this is part of the "suddenly" we end up in sooner or later.  People will eventually stop playing stupid games on fat layer one chains, and start to realize the field is wide open for all kinds of layer 2 build.  When the product is understood it will become very compelling for the customers.

A scam or something that could be worse?
I had my doubts before, but his recent talk about "soul" tokens was Orwellian.

Explanation

I think he's more of a scammer than an idiot.

Never attribute to stupidity what can adequately be explained by malice.

OT

God: You can't combine flamenco and bossa nova with club and funk bass beats. It will never work.

Polyphia: Hold my beer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5NoQg8LdDk

yea, those SPY calls are working really well, already more than doubled, so I took 50% off, now playing with the "house" money until July 15.
@jojo69 heck, maybe Coinbase (COIN) is not a bad bet either if you slide in slowly (between today's $74 and $50 low, which was 89% down from the top).

Coinbase as the Amazon of Crypto