We can finally see some green! Well, this was predictable after 9 (10?) weeks of red. Not a real pump yet, but hopefully we'll see some $32-33k soon.
So, is this a:
* relief rally to $38-42k?
* mighty bull starting back to ATH?
* weak dead cat bounce to $30-32k with moar pain following?
I'd go for option 1. A relief rally to ~$40K levels with good potential for ~$30K levels to hold therefore. Notably once Bitcoin leaves <30 RSI "oversold" levels on Weekly time-frame, it doesn't return thereafter. Even with price often returning to similar closing price levels shortly after (so in this case around $29.5K), price historically has never made a new low after leaving these oversold conditions. For what that's worth.
Either the above or option 3, with a bit more downside in the following weeks to the anticipated 200 Week MA @ $22K. But this seems overly-anticipated right now imo. I otherwise don't think there's any real resistance between $32K and $40K levels. $34K would have been the theoretical resistance, but given it didn't act as support on the most recent way down, I doubt it would be resistance on the way back up either.
Despite thinking the bottom is either in, or close to it, I don't see a bull market this year at all. More likely consolidation between $30K and $60K. Similar to in 2019 when Bitcoin went from $3.2K to $14K and most were convinced that the bull market had started, until price re-tested $4K levels. Even ignoring that covid crash, price still took a year to consolidate back to the $10K levels, and had already dropped by 50%.
Think I mentioned it before but wouldn't be surprised to see price return to $50K to $60K by summer, before re-testing $30K again by the end of the year, maybe the 200 Week MA will be around this price by then. This is mainly due to Weekly moving average bearish cross-over which Bitcoin has always been very respectful of, ie showing that price is moving up too fast after a drop and needs more time to consolidate.
Also will give all the noobs the opportunity to buy high again after selling low, before price drops upto 50% and the bull market starts up again. Ie the usual recipe for another uptrend.
