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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3614. (Read 26607866 times)

legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD
[...]
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e

what so we are r/bitcoinbets now?

No , wall observer.

Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (n memes n shit)

........ and not under "religion"

Naaah we all just BTCdramaQueens

But that’s the fun side of it

Love it
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 270
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 3439
Man who stares at charts (and stars, too...)
You're just repeating the same BS without any arguments.
How do you expect anyone else but you would be able to understand what you actually mean, which is backed by... accusations out of thin air.

All right. How can I prove it with arguments then?
After four three years of reading you guys - I began to notice patterns. Very distinct ones too, coming from very specific accounts.

BTW, I’ll tell you why and how I started thinking about this.
I took in the literal meaning - one of your buddy’s claims - that we need the shill-onians to get us to where Bitcoin is going. [yousuck and titter promo]
You know, that beggar shill. Guess who trolled with his avatar subtext - “I need 3 Dogecoins, urgently”. Ring a bell?
Finally I know that you guys have very limited intellect, and you’re so full of shit. It’s because you’re sort of young and that also seems to be very common between you.

Nothing is proof of anything of course. But my gut, almost always, serves me right - without a fail.
No more benefits of a doubt for you. You’re a shill-onian, end of story.

DUDE, WHAT?!?!  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
What an awesome LOL that was!!!
Sorry, no offense (this time, i mean it)!

That "I need 3 Dogecoins, urgently" subtext was meant as a parody on that (real) Cuntonian dude begging for 3 Bitcoin!!! (thus revealing himself after lurking for months, AFAIR).
And you really thought i meant that... uhm... literally?!  Roll Eyes

Fuck, this explains every single of your posts about me (or my posts) recently! I'm fucking grateful, thanks Bro!
WHY did you wait so long to tell me?!

But read on: If you are registering distinct patterns in networked communication, chances are quite high that you have some light form of ASD. Again, i don't think ASD is any negative or "psycho", not in any way, for a reason. Some well known geniuses had ASD, it's just a different form of percepton and information processing.
I might go too far here maybe, but we were about some other thing originally.

To make it short: Sorry for my cuntonian parody subtext, why, not sorry, but sorry that you didn't get the irony. I change my subtext for fun, randomly, following ideas or feelings about some event, llike a Cuntonian finally revealing himself by begging, for example. You might notice that i had a subtext referring to one of your offensive posts about mine, in the range of days to weeks ago. And still my current subtext, which i just looked up again (my memory probs, if you remember), is a parody of that subtext which was a parody of the post(s) of yours.

(EDIT: quoted subtext for reference:
I took in the literal meaning - one of your buddy’s claims - that we need the shill-onians to get us to where Bitcoin is going. [yousuck and titter promo]
I have some vague idea about what you mean, no idea WHO you mean, though.
Can't remember details, but that might have been irony as well, IDK.

Also, i repeatedly stated in the past that i look at WO (regulars) like a family, but you can't choose who belongs to or how somebody thinks or acts in your family.
These here are the only Bitcoiners which i share thoughts about Bitcoin with, and also even quite private stuff sometimes, but i see all of them as collegues, excluding shills, trolls, fucking roach (thank god he's gone) and some of the other cunts, which i also really try to accept in their presence. I haven't used the ignore list for months now, for higher reasons. Sometimes certain people just connect more, but if you insist on the term "buddies", i 'd say i consider a good amount most of WO's regulars would be such to me.

Quote
Finally I know that you guys have very limited intellect, and you’re so full of shit. It’s because you’re sort of young and that also seems to be very common between you.
Uhm, i don't want to brag, but in my case, the many scientific testings i gone through in the past simply prove you wrong, while i suck at social competence (IDC, though).
I am kind of young, right, but it's my lifestyle, not my physical age that determines my public image. So i'm kind of old AND kind of young simultaneously. That's why i don't really disagree, though i had lived probably more than the half of my life already, and it was a hell of a ride, sometimes.
"Hang loose!", as we oldschool skateboarders and our "ancestors" the surfers of the 70/80's used to say.

Quote
Nothing is proof of anything of course. But my gut, almost always, serves me right - without a fail.

Now i also understand that "benefit of doubt" argument of yours.

EDIT3:

WHO would really beg for 3 Doggiecoins!? Seriously! Thanks for all the laughs. Amazing!

Good night, for real this time  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
The thing is, no one can predict the future. That's why there's the saying "the best time to buy Bitcoin is now." The guy bought 18,600 BTC and then the price dropped 35%. It could have just as easily gone the other way. Endlessly postponing buying BTC in the hope that "the price gets lower," you may end up never buying at all.

In 2-3 years' time, the guy who bought 18,600 BTC could be sitting at a few billion dollars' worth of BTC. It could be the smartest investment he's ever made, even if he's "currently losing"...

I totally agree...

However, today he is not "currently losing" , he is just currently losing. (as much as a guy with that much BTC can be considered "losing " lol)

It is what it is,  I am donkeying about, playing devils advocate, whatever....

But, price moves in both directions.

This is not a bug and it is definitely a feature

Y'all realise that some people make/accumulate more BTC, when the price moves down right ?


It is not an "attack"  


Jus facts.


btw Viva la BTC !!!!  


Nothing wrong with some dry powder

For sure, it is good to keep some dry powder.

One of the risks of lump summing might be that too much of the wadd was blown.

I have my doubts that rich folks go all in at the top, so I would imagine that there has been some deployment of dry powder at various points along the way, and if there had not been, then that would go to show that even rich fucks might need to learn things about portfolio management.

Another point is that some richer folks give few shits at what price they might buy something like BTC because of BTC's hedge angle.. and both rich folks and institutions can frame bitcoin in that kind of a way - in terms of considering bitcoin a long term hedge.. so they might start to worry 8-12 years down the road if the hedge is not working out, but they might not be so bothered if there are ups and downs within a 3-6 year timeframe - even less of a time frame (less than 6 months) as is the case with this $63k average purchase example.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
then he will no doubt be the first to say " I was down half a billion dollars , and now I am up 2 billion dollars"   and you are not going to say to him... "bro you ain't in profit until you sell bro"


Of course, I will (if getting $$ is the ultimate aim).

It only really matters if you want to use that btc as a collateral, then, yes, mark-to-market, etc, etc.
Besides, maybe it was not the fitst buy.
M. Saylor bought some at 17K, some at 32K, some at 60K, some at 40K (average about 30-31K, I think).

OT: Netflix loses subs, craters in extended time. Watch FB doing the same tomorrow.

exactly, prices go up and down, and that is ok, and expected, and inevitable, it is baked into the cake... natural & necessary.



The thing is, no one can predict the future. That's why there's the saying "the best time to buy Bitcoin is now." The guy bought 18,600 BTC and then the price dropped 35%. It could have just as easily gone the other way. Endlessly postponing buying BTC in the hope that "the price gets lower," you may end up never buying at all.

In 2-3 years' time, the guy who bought 18,600 BTC could be sitting at a few billion dollars' worth of BTC. It could be the smartest investment he's ever made, even if he's "currently losing"...

I totally agree...

However, today he is not "currently losing", he is just currently losing. (as much as a guy with that much BTC can be considered "losing" lol)

[...]

The highlighted (and slightly FTFY -- strikethrough mine) part is what I believe most of us are trying to say... Owning BTC is a winning strategy almost by definition. Short-term fiat-equivalent value fluctuations are a known Bitcoin characteristic, which I'm sure the owner of the 18,600 BTC is well aware of. You can remove the quotes from "currently losing" if you wish, but I wouldn't consider that guy a loser.

I see your point though. If he were to sell today, he would be losing. And I will raise you and say that if he sells even when the price reaches $100k he will still be losing -- not fiat, but a future value that could be orders of magnitude higher.



https://twitter.com/gregschoen/status/70261648811761665?lang=en

The guy, if it is an individual, or chick, or corp etc, is definitely not a loser imo, not saying that, just y'know, their BTC has less fiat price today, than when they bought it (which is a common predicament for many hodlers for certain periods of time, such is the game)


Agreed. Future price may be orders of magnitude higher.... it may not, but it most likely is going to be.


"owning BTC is a winning strategy"  fuckin' aye it is... 100% , zero argument from me..


I am pretty much a permabull longterm for BTC, in case anyone forgot or didn't know, or it was not clear... but then , it is not religion, and it is ok to discuss what it is, isn't, could be, wont be , etc


It is ok, for someone to point out that someone is currently down on their investment, such is the nature of the beast, especially this beast, volatility is its middle name.... and one of the reasons we love it, embrace that shit.


 
ps, for all we know the buyer was one of the sellers in the $67K+ region Wink  
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e

current loss = zero


he is hodling.

and he now has the opportunity to buy in at 41k

thus the 63k+41k = 104K / 2 or 52k price for break even.

That is exactly correct philip, and surely a real world demonstration to help to establish some of the benefits of incrementalistic investing rather than lump sum investing.

This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD

Current loss?
Unrealized "losses".
I also bought at $15k in 2017. How much was the "loss"?
Right: ZERO  Grin As well as the "gain", because i'm still hodling the coins from this transaction.


Perhaps according to some supposedly clairvoyant-wannabe folks, you were a loser for damned near close to 3 years while those BTC that you had purchased at around $15k were in the negative.


I will surely agree with your overall point that short term framings can fall quite short regarding how to consider bitcoins that you bought at certain price points, and also might not even account for various options that you would have had concerning how to manage your BTC portfolio since about early 2018 all the way until the end of 2020 when Bitcoin prices were below $15k.. and as we know had gotten all the way down into the lower $3ks for a period of time in late 2018 and early 2019.. and relapsed to a short downward spike in March 2020.

There are some folks who lost money in that period between - let's say mid-2017 until now in terms of their choices regarding how to manage their bitcoin holdings, and surely there are several of us who recognize ongoing accumulations through that whole time would have put almost everyone who mostly accumulated and HODLed in a damned good position today - even if they fucked up a whole hell of a lot, if they had decently solid strategies that mostly HODLed and accumulated they would have inevitably been good right now.

Now some traders are so smart in their own ways of attempting to define "accumulation" and they believe that selling can be considered part of "accumulation," and in my view selling is not part of accumulation - even though it could be part of managing a persons portfolio - which are not the same, and there is a need to consider where one is at in terms of his/her own BTC accumulation in order to know if there might be some ways that reasonable "managing" might be included within BTC strategies and employed practices.

You're just repeating the same BS without any arguments.
How do you expect anyone else but you would be able to understand what you actually mean, which is backed by... accusations out of thin air.

All right. How can I prove it with arguments then?
After four three years of reading you guys - I began to notice patterns. Very distinct ones too, coming from very specific accounts.

BTW, I’ll tell you why and how I started thinking about this.
I took in the literal meaning - one of your buddy’s claims - that we need the shill-onians to get us to where Bitcoin is going. [yousuck and titter promo]
You know, that beggar shill. Guess who trolled with his avatar subtext - “I need 3 Dogecoins, urgently”. Ring a bell?
Finally I know that you guys have very limited intellect, and you’re so full of shit. It’s because you’re sort of young and that also seems to be very common between you.

Nothing is proof of anything of course. But my gut, almost always, serves me right - without a fail.
No more benefits of a doubt for you. You’re a shill-onian, end of story.

The only delusional one seems to be uie-pooie Cryptotourist - especially when you get into the level of generalizations that you are making - including but not limited to this post of yours that I cited above.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!
The thing is, no one can predict the future. That's why there's the saying "the best time to buy Bitcoin is now." The guy bought 18,600 BTC and then the price dropped 35%. It could have just as easily gone the other way. Endlessly postponing buying BTC in the hope that "the price gets lower," you may end up never buying at all.

In 2-3 years' time, the guy who bought 18,600 BTC could be sitting at a few billion dollars' worth of BTC. It could be the smartest investment he's ever made, even if he's "currently losing"...

I totally agree...

However, today he is not "currently losing", he is just currently losing. (as much as a guy with that much BTC can be considered "losing" lol)

[...]

The highlighted (and slightly FTFY -- strikethrough mine) part is what I believe most of us are trying to say... Owning BTC is a winning strategy almost by definition. Short-term fiat-equivalent value fluctuations are a known Bitcoin characteristic, which I'm sure the owner of the 18,600 BTC is well aware of. You can remove the quotes from "currently losing" if you wish, but I wouldn't consider that guy a loser.

I see your point though. If he were to sell today, he would be losing. And I will raise you and say that if he sells even when the price reaches $100k he will still be losing -- not fiat, but a future value that could be orders of magnitude higher.



https://twitter.com/gregschoen/status/70261648811761665?lang=en
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
then he will no doubt be the first to say " I was down half a billion dollars , and now I am up 2 billion dollars"   and you are not going to say to him... "bro you ain't in profit until you sell bro"


Of course, I will (if getting $$ is the ultimate aim).

It only really matters if you want to use that btc as a collateral, then, yes, mark-to-market, etc, etc.
Besides, maybe it was not the fitst buy.
M. Saylor bought some at 17K, some at 32K, some at 60K, some at 40K (average about 30-31K, I think).

OT: Netflix loses subs, craters in extended time. Watch FB doing the same tomorrow.
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
"Juanita Nihilism Troll"  Cheesy  Cheesy .. that should be your description man.  Grin  Grin

You are somewhat pathetic save the rf...

I mean what else more could you do to attempt to get attention?

Maybe create a kimichi scratch and sniff, perhaps?



Damn.. I have no more merits to give! Sad

You fuck!


























#nohomo


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2254
Merit: 2003
A Bitcoiner chooses. A slave obeys.


Current Situation for the Market Dominance Be like 🤣🤣


Not really. A better analogy would be :Bitcoin is the elder brother who gave his altcoin younger sibling an unplugged controller to make them happy.

They aren't actually doing anything.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 523



Current Situation for the Market Dominance Be like 🤣🤣


Bitcoin doesn't need to do that. Neither Bitcoiners.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1441
This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD
[...]
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e

what so we are r/bitcoinbets now?

No , wall observer.

Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (n memes n shit)

........ and not under "religion"
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 75
UCT (United Crowd)





Current Situation for the Market Dominance Be like 🤣🤣
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
This man here bought 18,600 BTCs at $63k.
Current Loss: -404,775,658.1 USD
[...]
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3K5dmrkBMS8ZVgERMLwiw7PJuG8GWTbo8e

what so we are r/bitcoinbets now?
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
A "nice" Cryptotourist?  wouldn't that be an oxymoron (pun intended)?

Nah.
Nice to see you try to tackle the Greek language.

That was Greek?

I thought that I was typing in English.

As an added thought, your quants would feel right at home if they were programmed in Greek. #just.saying

Oh?  

You might know better than me.

Secondly:  Hypothetically going into JJG comparison mode, would call for long?  deep?  mean? or some other approach?

Wait. I was only referring to the daunting “walls of text” - in my usual personal style - insulting n all.

That will teach you.  If that's possible?


Maybe I should not be asking the above questions, right?  You know there's an expression about not feeding "them," right?  

I make sure to feed all my pets on the WO. That includes you too.

Sounds like you have "control (sense of superiority) issues," if you believe in that "pet" theory.

[...]

I am not even saying that the 200-week moving average might not be touched before we get another ATH...

[...]

If/when the 200-Week MA indicator is touched, it will be the third time in Bitcoin's 13-year-long history.

1st touch: 3-Sep-2015 (200-Week MA: $234, Spot: $231)
2nd touch: 12-Mar-2020 (200-Week MA: $5488, Spot: $5143)

There was one more time that the 200-Week MA was almost touched: 14-Feb-2019 (200-Week MA: $3319 Spot: $3583). This, together with the 2021 ATHs could be seen as evidence to support the bearish scenario described below.

Touching the 200-Week MA indicator is a rare event, which, based on past historical data, appears to possess some useful properties:


I will agree that touching the 200-week moving average isn't that common, but I would 1) characterize it happening more frequently than you are describing it and 2) agree with your overall point that it might not even be guaranteed to touch it in the future.

It seems to occur every 4 years or so, and I think that the March 2020 touching event was a bit of a quirk.

2012 - right around 6 months the BTC price hovered around $4.

2015 - around 10 months the BTC price was in the lower to mid $200s.

late 2018 until April 2019 - BTC price in the upper $3ks

March 2020 - BTC price was below $5k for only about a week and a half.

By they way:  We are using the same website for our analysis of the 200-week moving average, so it is not as if I should need to provide that chart again... right?  But we are discussing the factual representations a bit differently, our conclusions are not very much different, except some "technically quibblings".. it seems.

1. Periodicity — Its occurrence correlates with Bitcoin's 4-year Halving cycle. Specifically, it appears to occur some months before Halving.
2. Correlation with ATH — ATHs tend to occur about 2 years after the 200-Week MA touch events.

Bullish scenario — Based on the dates of the above 200-Week MA touch events, the ATH associated with the 2nd touch may not have occurred yet (the 2021 ATHs happened too soon and for odd reasons, and do not quite satisfy the 2nd property above). In fact, according to the 2nd property, the next ATH should come around this time (1st half of 2022). It is possible that this has not yet happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other world events. Based on the above, it is reasonable to expect the next ATH to occur sometime in 2022.

Bearish scenario — If what Jay describes as a possibility in the quote above actually happens, i.e., that the 200-Week MA is touched before we get another ATH, then this would shift upcoming events further into the future, by treating the 2021 ATHs as the main ATH events of this cycle. Specifically, the next 200-Week MA touch event should occur sometime in late 2023 (say, 6 months before the Halving of March 2024—property 1), followed by the upcoming ATH, which should occur around 2 years later (property 2). This gives us an expected ATH date of late 2025.

Without disregarding the bearish scenario, I'm more inclined to place my bets on the bullish scenario, given that we are still somewhat early in the 4-year cycle, and lots of things are happening in the world that could be putting a downward pressure on price, and thus inserting a time lag in the upcoming price action events. However, anything is possible, really, and we could be in for a long wait to reach ATH and beyond. Regardless, I'm not worried at all. It's not an IF, but a WHEN, and it will certainly happen "soon" in a monetary investment timescale.

GTCTTWW — HoDL.

[Numerical Data Source] LookIntoBitcoin — 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap

I don't disagree with any of the rest of your framings... including your weigh the possibility of upside scenarios and downside scenario - as well as considering that upside scenarios have ongoingly good chances of happening... even if they are no where close to guaranteed in terms of how far they will go or when they might happen, and even if we were to consider some of the downward pushing of the BTC price, those kinds of pushing of the BTC price down can actually end up having the BTC price explode upwardly - contrary to the desires of some of the folks ongoingly attempting to push BTC prices down when they seem to not want to go down.
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