Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3713. (Read 26732055 times)

LUNA Will be zero before UST

Terra USD is going down to zero. Currently 0.35$ for 1UST. What a joke. So much for bitcoin pegged usd.

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LFG initially removes $150 million in liquidity in anticipation of 4pool. The liquidity pull happens on May 8. At the same time, the attacker uses $350 million of UST to drain the Curve liquidity. This starts de-pegging the UST pushing it down to $0.97.

Later, the Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) also starts selling its Bitcoin from reserves to protect the peg. This puts downward pressure on Bitcoin. Now with the Curve liquidity drained, the attacker starts offloading the remainder of $650 million from the $1 billion OTC UST position, on Binance.

Now with strong UST liquidations, LUNA price starts to collapse because of Terra’s algorithmic mechanism. Over the last month, the Bitcoin price has dropped from $42K to now at $32K $30K.

Now if the attacker might have covered his/her 100K BTC short positions at $32K, they would have made over $950 million. Of course, the attacker would have made some losses on the UST dump, however, that would be very minor.

Source: https://coingape.com/heres-how-the-attacker-possibly-made-over-800-million-in-a-coordinated-attack-on-ust/

Good thing got extra cash to buy the dip, my future me will be again proud. Enjoy it while it's on discount!

Explanation

Quoting my accountant from my former carreer life:

If you have the house edge and still can't make it
https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1524125736726110213

Explanation

Just jawboning but it seems like this might be a "managed" price movement.

SEC’s Gensler Says Crypto Exchanges Trading Against Clients

Explanation

 

Ran out of batslaps?
Bitcoin is down about 92.5% since i got in, on the reverse time scale...  

EDIT: Seems we have a new wall-of-text contender? death_wish  Welcome, BTW!

Today Bitcoin price $31.3k. Bitcoin breached the $31,000 mark in the last 24 hours .
It hit it's lowest level since July 2021.

Exactly.

These are the dumb kinds of things that normies try to do when they have failed/refused to solidify their basics and they have also failed/refused to account for a lot of the factors.. .  sure one factor is that Saylor can negotiate decently good lending terms, and another thing is that he and his company have a whole hell of a lot of alternative sources of payment, including also having pretty damn strong ongoing positive company cashflows, too.



You fucking cannot be doing what Saylor is doing if you are using the terms of the exchange(s) for your loans.  Fuck that nonsense... it is not even close to the same.


Well if you know that you are being manipulated (and the exchanges are engaging in such manipulation practices (or the traders playing with those tools on the exchanges), then you are not really doing anything close to what saylor is doing.. you are gambling at a roulette table or something similar to that.



You seem to know quite a few of the parameters, but still sounds like you believe that you can beat the game... by fucking around and trying to play it.

Better strategies include spending a decent amount of time to build a large investment portfolio, and how do you do that?  DCA through time, and build it up 4-10 years or longer.. and maybe if you want to fuck around with less than 10% of your holdings, then that might be o.k... but probably better to limit yourself to lower amounts (such as 1%) and then work out your system in order that you are consistent before working yourself up to using something like 10% of the value of your overall investment portfolio...

There are ways to make sure that you are not losing money and/or not putting much if any of your principle at risk... but you have to start out with small amounts and learn how to do it well before increasing your amounts... and also there are ways to hedge too.. and to figure out formulas for being able to bet in either direction.. even though in BTC it likely remains better to skew your bets in favor of UP.. and that is by making sure that you are building and maintaining a HODL stash.


The lesson should not be that you were lucky, but instead, learn how to NOT have to fuck around with having to depend upon luck.. or at least not too much luck.

I am not against risk or luck, but you gotta be careful not to be overly dependent upon luck.. that would be called gambling and not investing..

but hey maybe you prefer being a gambler and losing money even on a winning asset (namely bitcoin)?


Well perhaps you have identified one of the differences between you and Saylor.  Hopefully, you will attempt to appreciate that there are likely a lot more differences.. especially when a guy is using company assets too.  Are you using company assets and figuring out (tailoring) an approach that is working with your variables that include at least your cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, your time, skills, abilities to plan, strategize and learn along the way which may also include reallocating and/or trading or the use of debt and/or other financial instruments. 

Think about all of those factors in the above list, and the factors in the beginning are more basic and in need of really figuring out before getting to more advanced techniques that are later in the list.



Yes.. of course there are better ways to get money and to negotiate better terms.. If you cannot get or work with  better ways to get cashflow then maybe you are not even trying to adequately account for various factors - several of which you already seem to know about.


You cannot blame them.  You can ONLY blame yourself for either using such services or using such services without adequately figuring out the dynamics, including but not limited to perhaps playing with way smaller amounts of value while you learn the ropes and try not to take too many risks.. and account for trying to win without putting your principle at risk.


If you know it is rigged then why play?  or are you trying to proclaim that you just learned these things? You hadf not known about it previously?



And, you want to play in those games?  Maybe you should establish your own exchange so instead of getting fucked, you can fuck others?  Is that what you learned from your recent experiences?



I am sure that not everyone is losing money by participating in those services.


Seems that you thought that you had accounted for more than you had.  And, yeah if you want to gamble, then you have to be careful about the more experienced players at your table and you are playing as an amateur at a professional table, then what do you expect to happen?



It is probably better to learn to not be fucking around with those kinds of things.

Set yourself up with a more boring approach including establishing your budget first, and then maybe DCA $10 to $100 per week or maybe more, and then you can also figure ways to buy the dip and lump sum invest, and after 4-10 years or longer, you are likely going to be in a decent position.. Also try to learn along the way so you can tweak your strategies from time to time as you go... don't be fucking around with trading.. especially in the beginning and especially you should not be playing around with margin.. .. until you learn how to do it and start with very small portions of your overall portfolio.. if you are going to do it, and even if it is necessary at all in order to build wealth.. i have my doubts that is it even necessary to fuck around with either trading or margin.. especially prior to building a decently sized portfolio first, and by the time you build a decently sized portfolio, then you probably won't even want to fuck around with risking the value within the portfolio that you had built.



Well hopefully death_wish, you can get yourself organized and reoriented and learn a lesson not to be fucking around with gambling.. when it is much better to work out some kind of a long term investing strategy.. and sure maybe you believe that long-term investing is boring and you want to accelerate your getting rich into a getting rich quick.. and in the end, getting rich tends to take a decently long time, and you will likely have better chances towards getting rich by not fucking around with margin and trading but instead focusing ur lil selfie on accumulating BTC through ongoing buying and HODLing.. and 4-10 years down the road, you will likely be in a way better place than by screwing around in terms of trying to time the ups and downs of the market blah blah blah.

No, I didn't close my position; I only raised my health to about 2%.  It put me in a much better position, because I would have immediately lost most of my BTC if I hadn't done it.  I sold a minimal amount to avoid instant catastrophe, and I avoided the liquidation penalty.

And it was, in effect, a short of the dollar (= leveraged long on BTC).  (Partly from buying BTC on margin; partly from taking BTC-backed loans for other purposes, to avoid spending BTC.)  I don't short BTC - although I have nothing against shorting BTC-PERP settled in dollars, because no actual bitcoins are harmed; it doesn't directly dump the BTC market.  If you have a solid bear-market prediction and high risk tolerance, go ahead and short the perp; that's what it's there for!


What actually happened is explained at length in subsequent posts, which you will reach eventually as you catch up.  This is only a note for future readers, who may happen across this page out of context.

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He finally figured out that he is a contrarian indicator, and his intentions are malicious towards BTC.  Therefore, he is suddenly bullish.  Compare "reverse psychology".

He figures that if he starts calling million-dollar bitcoins within the next month, BTC will suddenly go to "its natural price of $100 PROVED BY MATH AND SCIENCE", blah blah blah.

The solution is to find a bull who always makes wrong predictions - say, a permabull who bought BTC on maximum leverage at $67k last year, and still predicts $100k any day now - and persuade him to make a string of bearish posts now.

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For a leveraged long on BTC, my calling it "shorting the dollar" is absolutely, indubitably correct - and much superior to calling it a "leveraged long on BTC".  You are borrowing a distressed asset with no fundamental value (USD), and selling it for money (BTC).  That is a classic short-sell.

That is not overthinking.  That is correcting people's brainwashed, dollarized mentality about prices.

When you buy BTC with non-loaned USD ("for cash"), then I am admittedly stretching the definition of a "short".  But I am not stretching it by much.

When you buy milk for $ (= sell dollars as priced in units of milk), then unless it is a commodities futures trade or similar, you do not expect to profit from future changes in the dollar's value as priced in milk.  When you sell dollars for BTC, you do it because you expect the dollar to devalue as priced in BTC.  In the abstract, a short position is a sale with expectation of profit from future devaluation of the sold asset.  This is not only my definition; I have sometimes (rarely) seen this use of terminology in discussion of stocks, and so forth.

Please translate into "mere mortal speak."


Thanks for the reassurance.... PHILIP!!!!

 



Hahahahahaha

I like it!!!!!!!!!


That what we(royal that is) B talkin bout!!!!!!!!!

Explanation

you are overthinking it, imho.
if you bought btc with $, you are NOT shorting the dollar if your purchase was on a straight cash basis.
Not anymore then when I buy milk using $. The notion that I shorted dollars by buying milk would be completely misplaced.
You simply exchanged one asset for another in this case, but the analogy with the home is TRUE because it is a leveraged buy (as long as you did not pay 100% in cash).

I was going to send you an smerit.. but something was not right about that meme...


I am having trouble understanding how you are in a better position for having had sold at the bottom  (you are saying that you closed your margin short, just before you got force liquidated?)..  Fucking around with margin is usually not a good idea, unless you are just hedging other portions of your portfolio.. .. so maybe if you hold $100k BTC.. Maybe you would hedge $5k of it or maybe $10k at most?  I suppose there are formulas in order that you can simultaneously play both price directions.


Looks like a pink bear.

Oh my!!!   

A pink bull would be better?  But in nature, usually we do not think about bulltraps, but we do think about bear traps...

Oh wait?


Can you stop jinxing us, already?

Go back to posting your nattering nabobs of negativism.


Thanks.

Looks like we have a bit of a scrap going on with the price. Though possibly just aftershocks.