Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 372. (Read 26713469 times)

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Which  is the next pause¡ 100k??

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A nice price action...

Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.

Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).

Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.

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Over the top lads.... go go go

Confirmation confirmed.

67K in one hour confirmed

 

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I actually said it's _not_ the most likely.

Can you provide an example of a different scenario (event) that you would characterize as MOAR likely than pulling a 7x within, say, 2025 or "until the top", whenever we might stipulate this bull's done? The simple complementary event "anything but 7x" doesn't qualify as particularly fair. On the other hand, asking for both a number and a time interval begs for soothsaying, which is not your forte or even something you seem to condone too much.

Thoughts? Anything workable comes to mind?


Half as much (3.5x) seems more doable to me (event with higher probability). Not signing in blood ink for that myself, though.

Under 3.5x? Over 7x + 3.5x = 10x? Over 7x * 2?
Other than that, can you see any conservative scenarios (more likely if at all possible) in the room with us?




Bat slap accepted
Shaking hands, this is delight
Bear apologies



#haiku

Hahaha some kinda green opiu.... maybe

well technically depends on what youre smoking

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The cloud is green

Keen honey badger
No give no fuck, eat greeean wax
Cuz smellz like honey!





#haiku

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It would smell like Money.

It is strange that even 7x is not that much of a pump in terms of bitcoin's historical price performance, yet even though we have been consolidating in this $55k to $70k zone for right around 7 months, I am not completely sure if this consolidation zone would be our fair jumping off point, or if our consolidation in the $27k arena (from October 2023) might be a more fair measure of our jumping off point for whatever prices that we are able to reach this cycle.

I personally had used around $4,200 as our jumping off for the 2021 cycle (based on that was kind of where we ended up doing the 3.5x jump in early 2019).. and then for the 2017 cycle, I like to use $250 for that one (from the long 2015 period), even though reasonably, we could also consider $420 (from the early 2016 period) as a candidate as well... 

I personally don't like to use the absolute bottom for our jumping off period, since that does not seem to be as representative, even though I would concede that there is a bit of randomness even in my own preferred choices of what I consider to be fair jumping off points.

I consider the 2021 run to be around a 16.5x run and the 2017 run to be around a 78x run, and I don't necessarily buy the idea that subsequent runs have to be lower than previous ones, and there surely can be some variance based on a variety of circumstances that are not easy to measure...

but even a 16.5x run from $27k would be around the same $450k-ish results... but yeah, it seems that the BIGGER that bitcoin is getting, the more pants shitting seems to be going on in regards to its ongoing growth and influence that seems to be bothering the powers that be, and we even have to question Larry Fink's agenda, even though he has been proclaiming a lot of good things about bitcoin, even though I am not sure if bitcoin remains as valuable as even he is making it out to be if there are also ongoing attacks on self-custody and/or ways of normies to transact directly, even though surely there are quit a few folks  (even in these here parts) who might not be as concerned about long term durability of bitcoin's price performance as long as we end up getting our short-term cycle pump.. and I cannot completely blame anyone for that, even if there might ONLY be a shaving of 10% to 30% of the stash at those various potential price peaks.

My philosophy all along has been to just shave off small parts along the way, so I have not exactly solidified in my own thinking if it really matters to me to shave off some extra at various high points rather than just sticking with my already existing system.. which still is not really leaving me with any major shortages of cash.. even if we get a bounce and then even a correction back below $100k.. .. not sure, if we can say goodbye to sub $100k, even if we were to get all the way up into the mid $400ks.. who knows for sure?  but even just shaving off 5% or 10% could still end up quelling a lot of concerns if there was shavenings that happened in the mid $200ks and even in the mid $400ks.. ..

but I am also one who is not missing out to be shaving at various stages all the way up.. so I am not missing shavings in the sub $100ks, in the $100ks, in the $200ks, in the $300ks, in the $400ks or various other places that we may or may not go, if those kinds of BTC prices were to occur. 

I just did a quickie look at my own projections of the effects on my finances of those kinds of uppity BTC price moves, and surely from my own perspective of how the projections work out, there's not going to be a shortage of cash and/or bitcoin on my end, so I don't see any need to get too excited about matters since I would not be making any rash moves even though surely my networth would be continuing to go up in terms of both dollars and largely just continuing to hold most of the bitcoin that I already have.  I even see that around $450k, I would still be holding close to 90% of what I hold today, unless I make some major changes or maybe if I were to figure out some ways to meaningfully increase my living costs (standard of living), so from my perspective, it is not like there is any need to be considering selling a lot of BTC in order to still be quite flush with cash and to still be able to live quite well..

Ongoing dilemma.. perhaps how to think more BIGGEDly?


That is OLD news.

The bull market has been here since around November 2022, even though I will admit that we might not have been sure about it until either mid-2023 or perhaps as late as October 2023, yet by October 2023, we should have had figured out that we were in a bull market and continue to be in a bull market, even if there have been a few bumps along the way.


Gosh your "most-likely case" seems quite bearish like you need a slap.. .. .hhahahahaha.... to snap you out of it since you seem to recognize (and poo poo) that the 7x expectations from here are considerations of the ending point of this particular cycle.. .which could be through 2025 and it is possible that it could linger into 2026 (though not seemingly likely.. but who knows?).

Don't get me wrong.  I am not opposed to conservative scenarios, but labelling conservative scenarios as "the most likely"  seems a wee bit presumptuous.

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