Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 369. (Read 26713397 times)
October 15, 2024, 03:01:15 PM
October 15, 2024, 02:56:55 PM
I wonder where the $3k, $10k, bear boys at while looking at $67k now.
October 15, 2024, 02:30:34 PM
Maybe this will suffice until hell freezes over 
| Participant | Key Points |
| JayJuanGee: | Money inflow for 7x increase depends on price at liftoff; 3x-4x by 2025 seems more likely. |
I claim that I did not say that (or I did not mean that). I meant to say that when measuring our anticipated BTC price increase, we should probably start with $27k as our base starting off point rather than using current BTC prices... and ultimately, I was probably waffling a bit in regards to whatever I consider to be the most likely of outcomes for the top of this cycle... and whatever, how am I supposed to remember what I said. go back and read it, in the event that anyone might be remotely interested in the actual words at the moment of the post.
| d_eddie: | Critiques JayJuanGee's bearish outlook; asks for more likely scenarios than 7x increase. |
I would like to take this opportunity to say that I think d_eddie does not like me.
| JayJuanGee: | Acknowledges confusion in discussing scenarios; emphasizes the complexity of probabilities. |
Predicting the future (for any of us sorcery guru wannabes) comes off as even more complex when you put it like that.
| d_eddie: | Questions the validity of assigning high probabilities to specific outcomes; suggests a conservative approach. |
I thought that I proclaimed that d_eddie was being too conservative, and he then doubled down on the idea of both being conservative and asking me to answer and to specify what I thought. .which, good luck with that proposition.
| LFC_Bitcoin: | Believes 3.5x increase is more achievable than 7x; cautiously optimistic. |
That my memory of what LFC said, and sure if we are referring to going up 3.5x from here, on the face of it 3.5x would be more achievable than 7x, and no one seems to be suggesting that 7x would not be in reach or even within the realm of reasonably possible - even though maybe it seems difficult for any of us to assign very high probabilities to higher price multiples.. and gosh, if you think about it 3.5x and 7x are ONLY 2x apart, so it is not like there is a whole hell of a lot of difference when it comes down to considering historically what bitcoin's price movements have done in considering what reasonably could be within reach for future BTC price dynamics...
yeah, yeah, yeah, we know that past performance is not indicative of future performance, yet if we have some senses of bitcoin fundamentals and what bitcoin actually is, as a protocol layer of money that it attached to digital information, then surely we may well be able to consider that bitcoin is not totally hindered to perform within historical parameters and even that there are still possibilities that some of bitcoin's current cycles could end up out performing prior cycles... so yeah, we have to consider a lot of the performance possibilities with a bit of wonder in regards to what could be reasonably possible or probable, and then how various aspects of bitcoin's price dynamics related to ongoing growth in various network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer) might be playing out on the ground in real time.
| Biodom: | Recalls past price movements; suggests 3-3.5x is possible but 7x is quite rare. |
Biodom is a whimp.. Let's just get that part straight... hahahaha. I don't even not like Biodom.
| coinlary: | Ponders the next price pause; suggests the current pause is at $66,479. |
It turns out that we seem to have a new honey badger price pause at $67,922... Who would-a-thunk?
This is an ongoingly changing dynamic, and we are getting some action in these here parts, and potentially some
CCCCCCCCCIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,
too.
As soon as the price pauses seem to have had accomplished their pausing, they resume in their pausing at some other location. Is that the definition of a "non-pausening"?.
Historically a lot of bears and traders have gotten reckt based on these kinds of BTC price dynamic tendencies.
| MrNata: | Speculates on Bitcoin's potential to break records; emphasizes preparation for the inevitable price increases. |
Whether that was a speculation from MrNata or from this here cat, who can go wrong with a prediction like that? In other words, "we" might have to vote for MrNata as our new BTC price predicting guru wannabe.
| AlcoHoDL: | Uses haikus to express optimism about Bitcoin's future and praises your skillz; questions the meaning of "moon in June" and then ponders the nature of Phil's skillz |
That is be called KORECK.
Therefore, you are highlighting that there continue to be two outstanding and unanswered questions.
| OutOfMemory: | Comments on current price stability; suggests we are in a neutral position at present. |
Doesn't feel like a neutral to me, but hey? what do I know?
edit: I forgot to mention that the above summary was generated by AI while I added/substituted a few words and put the results into a table.
Well.. now you disclose.
Isn't that cheating?
Personally, I would prefer to here what dee homers gots to say.
I have not checked for accuracy but as JJG only gets two entries, I'm going to assume the entire table is BS. 
You are going to have to get busy then if you want to make up for the misinformation that "we" ended up receiving.
I was on the fringes of sending uie pooie an s-merit for all of your seeming analytical work, even though it came off as wrong, yet when I heard that a botty potty did most (if not all) of the actual grunt work, my smerit-pushing stiffler se convertio its lil selfie into a noodle... which means that a noodle no doesn't work too well and ends up taking away most, if not all, of the pleasures and:
CCCCCCCCCIIIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,
Green stalks grow higher
Eyes fixed to the sky, waiting
Godzilla candle?
#haiku
Eyes fixed to the sky, waiting
Godzilla candle?
#haiku
What is the difference between a Godzilla candle and a gamma squeeze? #Asking for a friend.
Omega too?
should I ask the difference?
Omega, versus Godzilla versus gamma.
$67,439
Bears RIP.
did not age well did it?Bears RIP.
in 3 hours
65k to 68k to 64k to 66k
pretty nice action.
note to jjg i rounded and ballparked those numbers.
as for phil with the skill thats for me to know.
1) I am going to suggest that the fact that you ballpark/rounded your numbers likely helps to establish that the whole uppity and downity is mostly a kind of "don't wake me up zone," even though surely sometimes there could be some buy and/or sell orders that might have had been triggered**.. but not enough BTC price moves to get too Citeeeee.
**Just to clarify: I am not suggesting trading of dee cornz, and I am also not suggesting sell orders for the purpose of accumulating more BTC. For anyone who considers himself to be in the process of accumulating more BTC, then it seems to me that such persons should be mostly, if not exclusively, involved in buying dee cornz and not selling dee cornz, especially since selling dee cornz is not a good way to accumulate more cornz.
2) Somewhat a "secret skill" about which only you (and perhaps AlcoHoDL) seem to know.
Ok. no problem
For now, I will act like I did not see anything, unless you guys continue referring to such presumptive "skill."
Almost 9000 BTC bought through the ETFs yesterday.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
Well. From the perspective of this here cat, even though we still seem to largely be in the middle of "don't wake me up zone," you better snap out of it - not that there is anything to really know for the moment beyond price of dee cornz seems to be "going UPpity" - at least for the moment.
Almost 9000 BTC bought through the ETFs yesterday.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
well maybe the big swings today are the effect you are looking for.Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
Oh yeah.. "effects" I forgot to respond to that.
There could be a "supply shock" in the room with us right now, as I type this post.
Perhaps?
October 15, 2024, 02:01:15 PM
October 15, 2024, 01:59:52 PM
its all in the details yes?
a closer look at short fib attenuation
dyor
4h
D
stronghands
a closer look at short fib attenuation
dyor
4h
D
stronghands
October 15, 2024, 01:13:27 PM
the noon wall report
dyor
i always wished to live in interesting times....it surely has been hope all of you are doing as good as can be and are staying safe out there i am doing great with new chapters in life opening and old doors closing softly climbing out of my shell and taking a good look around might take a bit to get back up to speed so much going on i am uncertain of where and what to discuss
i guess that has never stopped me before, so...here we go with a quick snapshot
bitcoin price seems to be turning the corner with a large swing low observed
attenuating short fibs bottling a large bull flag with a continuation of upwards volatility expected as November approaches
steady on lads
D
stronghands
dyor
i always wished to live in interesting times....it surely has been hope all of you are doing as good as can be and are staying safe out there i am doing great with new chapters in life opening and old doors closing softly climbing out of my shell and taking a good look around might take a bit to get back up to speed so much going on i am uncertain of where and what to discuss
i guess that has never stopped me before, so...here we go with a quick snapshot
bitcoin price seems to be turning the corner with a large swing low observed
attenuating short fibs bottling a large bull flag with a continuation of upwards volatility expected as November approaches
steady on lads
D
stronghands
October 15, 2024, 01:01:18 PM
October 15, 2024, 12:53:32 PM
A nice price action... 
Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.
Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).
Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.
Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.
Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).
Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.
I appreciate most of your post, but still:
1) no link for the Ben Cowen charts? You must be slacking. You expect us to have to Google search for that charts / presentation that you could have had easily provided?
2) Why are we talking about 2028? don't we have to go one cycle at a time? Wouldn't you consider that we are still in the midst of a cycle? So you are suggeting that from here we get something in the ballpark of 3-3.5x (which yeah is $180k to $230k-ish) and then we correct back down to some place (maybe $70-$90k or perhaps we don't break back below $100k, yet that would be difficult to believe if we ONLY get up to upper $100ks or lower $200ks.. or maybe some other place? and then after we spend a bit of time consolidating in the sub $100ks and perhaps evenin the supra $100ks (but lower end), then we make another run for UPpity that would bring us up into the $360k to $500k price territory by 2028-ish? Maybe 2029? Those are somewhat bearish scenarios that seem to presume the disappearance of blow off tops, and surely we seem to have had experienced a somewhat stifled blow off top in 2021, yet does that really justify the disappearance of blow off tops in bitcoinlandia?
Are you really buying the mainstream media and/or perhaps the status quo financial pundits proclaiming that the various tools that they are putting into place - connected to bitcoin are going to be successful in terms of "taming" our lillie fiend? I am not opposed to the idea that such a thing could happen, yet I am not going to buy tame/stable as if it were a base case scenario and that blow off tops have disappeared (gone extinct) in this here asset class, which I remind you is not like any other asset class known to man, and likely is still in relatively early stages of adoption, which suggests that dee cornz is still a very immature asset class, even though from my perspective (for whatever that is worth?) you seem to be presuming some level of maturity within it.
Sure you might end up being correct, yet I would prefer you wipe that smugness off your face.. hahahahhahaha.. and get serious about dee cornz.
Look in the mirror at least 5 times per day, and repeat some kind of mantra: "I am going to stop being whimpy in regards to my bitcoin assessments and my bitcoin-related actions." Then try to do what you say and say what you do. You will thank me later. If you had not noticed, that is a protip.
...and who is being 'lazy' here, huh?
But....here it is: https://youtu.be/_aRjoXDneBw?t=52
"smugness off my face"...that's personal, lol
that said...it was funny..
I am not being anything about bitcoin, but just hodling and if that indicates some wimpiness, so be it.
Not going to be doing in-out (with bitcoin, haha).
Personally, I would be quite satisfied with btc at 200K.
In this sense, I am longing for $1 mil btc as anyone else might, but realize that I might not have enough time to observe btc reaching those hefty goals.
Hence the possible conundrum between wants and means.
October 15, 2024, 12:41:38 PM
Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
sometimes i just need to follow my own theoretical 'structures", lol:
MSTR is down from 210.42 to 197.16 (-6.4%) while bitcoin was up 6.8% (
)MSTZ (2X reverse eith) is up from 7.88 to 8.95 (+13.6%)
October 15, 2024, 12:04:01 PM
Almost 9000 BTC bought through the ETFs yesterday.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
well maybe the big swings today are the effect you are looking for.
Yesterday was an interesting day for the stock market. While it was open, it wasn’t a settlement day due to the holiday. That means a lot of strange things could have been occurring with Bitcoin that had to be settled after a longer than usual time. I believe that is the whipsaw action we saw earlier. Probably a one time event and doesn’t necessarily mean much, but it’s clear the price action is upwards…
October 15, 2024, 12:01:17 PM
October 15, 2024, 11:54:54 AM
October 15, 2024, 11:25:04 AM
Almost 9000 BTC bought through the ETFs yesterday.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
well maybe the big swings today are the effect you are looking for.
October 15, 2024, 11:18:32 AM
Almost 9000 BTC bought through the ETFs yesterday.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
Any effect on the price?
Most of the time I have no idea what is going on with this price action.
October 15, 2024, 11:01:16 AM
October 15, 2024, 10:32:13 AM
$67,439
Bears RIP.
Bears RIP.
did not age well did it?
in 3 hours
65k to 68k to 64k to 66k
pretty nice action.
note to jjg i rounded and ballparked those numbers.
as for phil with the skill thats for me to know.
October 15, 2024, 10:24:37 AM
from 65900 to 67900 and back to 65900 in 1 hour. well done rollercoaster bitcoin
And that's why I love bitcoin
It's a fucking ANIMAL
October 15, 2024, 10:17:21 AM
Bitcoin legend Hal Finney firing back at crypto critics, exactly 32 years ago
https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1846159762301263876
https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1846159762301263876
October 15, 2024, 10:01:18 AM
October 15, 2024, 09:43:16 AM
from 65900 to 67900 and back to 65900 in 1 hour. well done rollercoaster bitcoin
Relax, I'm recharging.
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