Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3913. (Read 26711230 times)

I'm not aware of Ukrainian government (even silently or whatever) invading Russia, bombing their civilians, arresting their own citizens for protesting, banning all independent media, etc, so no, that's not where the main differences are.


It is. Two wrongs don't make a right. If you can't make a coherent argument why some typically bad thing (like a military invasion) is actually good without resorting to "but others do it too", then said thing is probably not good.

Hyperbole doesn't help either. Russia literally condemned for everything it does? No. Not Russia, Putin, and not for everything, just the bad things he does (like a military invasion), although being a totalitarian dickhead he tends to do a lot of bad things.

Explanation

 OPsec alert:
 Letonia occupies the same spacetime as Latvia but in Romania or Spanish... maybe Turkish.

edit: Greek

It's too late for that...0...1...2...bounce

@therationalroot
The HODL Model: #Bitcoin 's illiquid supply is outpacing supply issuance.
As illiquid supply rises, so do the market impacts of bitcoin's digital scarcity.

Short 🧵👇

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875223201042439?s=21


@therationalroot
The "HODL model hypothesis" is that bitcoin has crossed a historic inflection point where the asset's illiquid supply is outpacing the rate of new supply issuance. Future halvings with lower supply issuance will only exacerbate this divergence.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875232986353666?s=21


@therationalroot
Illiquid supply as a percentage of circulating supply will grow in a parabolic fashion as #Bitcoin 's digital scarcity drives investor behavior towards store of value as the dominant use case. As a result, illiquid supply will approach 80% of circulating supply by 2036.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875238220828672?s=21


@therationalroot
Liquid and highly-liquid supply will tighten as illiquid supply grows, leaving less bitcoin available on the market to acquire or trade.
New waves of demand that enter the market to acquire this declining available supply will then lead to exponential price increases.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875240494166017?s=21



@therationalroot
The HODL model predicts a conservative estimate of #Bitcoin 's available supply following the growth curve we saw above. Since illiquid supply share nears a low at the inflection point, a logical consequence would be for bitcoin's price to follow an inverse S-curve.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875242369011715?s=21


@therationalroot
The 'HODL Price Model' leverages the HODL Model's inflection & end point to create an an asymmetric s-curve following the projections of illiquid supply.

https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875247024701441?s=21


@therationalroot
Unlike a log-curve with a continuous decreasing slope, the HODL price model has an increasing slope from the inflection point onwards.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875249662849025?s=21


@therationalroot
With tighter liquid and highly-liquid supply, we see high increases in price at the beginning of bitcoin’s lifetime and then moderate price increases near the third halving’s inflection point. As available supply tightens again, we should expect higher price increases to follow.
https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1500875251399331845?s=21







Interesting analysis, bit of bullishness & HOPIUM for us. We’re going to need to be very patient, the price will explode some time after the next halvening. North of $300,000 in 2025 at some point imo. Prepare yourselves for a bear market until 2024 though, buy with all you have near & under $30,000. Bottom will be within 12 months, something like $25,000.


NFA
DYOR

Explanation

Bitcoin obituary in 3... 2... 1...
Happy dip-hunting, brothers 

I recall an old saying that went something like: You never take two clocks with you when you travel, you either take one or three.

Nice to see tax money put to good use

A very debatable statement I will abstain from expressing my opinion about.  There are good arguments for both sides and I can simply not call the United States or Europe innocent either.  I keep hearing that Russia is the ONLY aggressor and this is definitely biased.

I have specifically highlighted this part of your answer and removed the rest.  The remaining part of your message is the reason I will abstain from expressing my opinion about your reply.  I will only have two things to comment.  The way I see it is, the difference between what Putin has done and what Ukraine and their supportive countries have done is that one of them does things directly with immediately felt effects while the other seems to do the same things in a more silent, indirect, suppressive manner that makes them look innocent and like a savior to the rest of the world.

I get what you mean about Whataboutism, but does this really apply to what I have said?  My examples have been from the same war.  I gave multiple examples about the way Russia's actions are seen versus when Ukraine does the same.  It is literally Russia being condemned for everything they do but when the United States or any European country does it, it is cheered and supported.  Is this really Whataboutism?

Definitely!  I am just fed up with not even being ALLOWED to see and hear what Russia says while being forcefully fed anti Russian propaganda.  Immediately discarding an argument and calling it bull shit is one thing I do not do, so I read information from both sides of the story.  I rather listen to every one and see what ultimately makes sense the most.  But shutting down anything pro Russia or even neutral opinions while glorifying everything Ukraine does and calling it censorship and totalitarianism when the opposite happens seems fishy to me.

Seems like I totally missed doing so.  So much informational overload I did not even know where to start from.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

Reported to the Politburo.

Explanation

Time is relative, so every watch is completely irrelative unless measured from a frame of reference.

Indeed....
However, there is no way for one to determine when it is correct, unless one has a working clock next to it, in which case, surely the stopped clock is not only useless, but also irrelevant....Perhaps?

I honestly didn't. Its like comparing BTC prices. Both sides can pick a random timeframes for price of BTC to show gains/losses to fit their narratives. If we oversimplify things and just blame the side that started bombing, then NATO bombing of Kosovo without approval of the UN Security Council doesn't sound too good, and sets precedent

I had been internally debating whether to send you more than one merit for your well thought out post - and part of my dilemma involved your not even mentioning bitcoin, therein... and for sure, there were several spots in which you could have mentioned it.. .  Could you not just slip it in there.. just for funzies?   Would have been nice to know how bitcoin potentially were to fit within all of that eloquent rantening.  Call me a whiner, if you must... 


Link or it didn't happen.


Hahhaha

Remember that short period of negative prices?  Surprised even the most pundit of pundits to both see oil prices (futures I believe) go negative, but also to recognize that physical assets can have quite concrete costs, especially if the financial vehicle is actually including the requirement that whatever is purchased has to be delivered as well... even if the purchaser were to have a big yard and a swimming pool, it may well not have been large enough to "take delivery."


This.

I like to encourage newbies too... but (big butt) just seems wrong when there is both sloppiness in the placement of quotes within the post (no quote in the beginning) and sloppiness in the showing where this quote took place.. sure, likely it came from a tweet, but why should we (the reader) have to go searching for it?... I am not always holding newbies to higher standards, either... but sometimes we might feel more ambiguity coming from a newbie account because we have not seen too many previous posts from such account.

You've fallen into the trap of false equivalence.

Putin's regime attacked an independent country, lied about "military exercises" / no intention to attack Ukraine / "special operation" / not targeting civilians; threatened with nuclear weapons; persecutes, beats up, arrests people for merely saying "no to war", and that's just off the top of my head for the last couple of weeks.

Ukrainian government possibly lied about their losses in the war.

Same thing?

Surely some kremlintroll will be around soon to tell me that some Ukrainian lied about something else too. Also the US invaded countries. Et cetera. Whataboutism is a favorite tool of Soviet propaganda, very easy to use and quite effective on a mass scale.

Then there is this whole "average Russians" thing. I don't know who's telling you to hate them but you shouldn't. Average Russians are victims of the regime too.

I do believe that many people are using the simple moving average which is usually just referred to as MA and sometimes referred to as SMA... and of course, it may well not matter so much which one you are using as long as you attempt to clarify which one it is.. because I believe that by default people are likely to presume that you are referring to the regular moving average MA or SMA unless you specify otherwise.

I doubt that your earlier assertion that causes the EMA to have more weight given to recency makes it objectively better than the MA.. but it does cause it to perhaps be better for certain kinds of purposes.. and likely no matter which one you use, you are likely to get used to it and build your comparison and contrasts around such usage, so in that sense, you start to customize your analysis with the use of such.

Like Toxic mentioned, he tends to use the MA, but is not opposed to using the EMA from time to time, and I suppose if there is a kind of flip-flopping that happens, then there may well be more need to clarify when you are using one or another and why you are doing so - even though people get away with throwing out predictions (analysis) with all kinds of vagueness.. and no one says anything... even though deeper assessment might establish a decent amount of the analysis as gobbledy-gook - especially if it is mot sufficiently explained.  Don't get me wrong.. I am not completely apposed to gobbledy-gook, especially if there might be some non-deceptive humor involved.


Fair point....

You see.. even a stopped clock can be correct from time to time - a couple times a day to be more precise.

Explanation