Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4065. (Read 26712318 times)

Well said, cAPSLOCK.

In the NL we say: A shroud (lijkwade, a shroud for the dead) has no pockets.

It is indeed, like cAPSLOCK so uneconomically said, about finding a balance.

BTW I do have a separate BTC address for my daughter. 

Bring into your grave
Rosy sunsets, lambos
Don't bring your bitcoin


#haiku

I think this balance is so important.  I have thought a lot about what I will leave my kids.  And to be honest one thing I am afraid of is just handing them more money than they could ever spend, and possibly ruining their lives by doing so.

This is as compelling a reason to enjoy the fruits of my risk even when it might not be "the best time".  I have several times told the story of buying my wife an I a trip for an anniversary.  A week on an island cost an amount that would equal a really nice car TODAY.  And I expect that sometime in the next few years the expense will be a significant percentage of a house on that same island.

And my smart wife asked why we were going to do that.  My answer was simple.  We had lived through thick and thin with this stuff, and there are two basic outcomes if we spend a little now:

1.  Bitcoin goes up so much tat our trip will have cost a car or house worth of money in the not so distant future.  But this is a 'problem' we most certainly WANT to have!

2.  Something unexpected makes Bitcoin not work, and eventually what we have is worth very little... Well, we got a week in paradise out of it at least!

Win/Win.  And at least 'till now it's turning out to be #1.  And I do not regret it one bit.

We die.  And random ass shit can take us out. And a bunch of 256 bit number are not going to mean ANYTHING after we are gone.  And like I said, though I want to bless my kiddos I don't want to make life so easy they drown in it.

I *WILL* be buying my Lambo, or Ducati, or East TX ranch, or island house (it's that last one, by the way...), and it will be filled with the finest wine, and whisky, good food, and whatever accoutrements my wife wants.  And maybe one day Strawbs will come over and drink some of that whisky and look at the sunset.  Maybe others of you can come for a visit too!

And it's not going to be that far in the future either...  Many of us have been at this for over a decade.   There is NOTHING wrong with enjoying the spoils.  Just as there is nothing wrong with living simply and dying rich if you want to.  But I'll be doing the former.


*EDIT* The Dude said the same thing, but with much greater economy of words.

This is internet-diarrhea. At some point it will be wiped away, like the success of BSV 

*sigh*

This whole CSW back on twitter thing is horrible.  The BSV camp has been upping the volume on their silliness for some time now, and this is just taking it to the next level.

I know I should just ignore it.  But for some reason it's like passing a car wreck.  I can't help but look.

I almost can't believe I am actually glad for COPA.

SURPRISE; SURPRISE...

Antigen test before going to sleep turned out to be positive.
This time i took the test when my nose was running, as it did before a few times today. Additionally i harrumphed a few times and spit in a glass, put the nasal swab into that for a short moment, then went on with the analysis of the sample: Two euqally dense red lines after about half a minute.
So that's it. My ticket out of vaccination mandate for half a year after being tested negative again.

Will delay my scheduled photoshoots, however  

Explanation

We save BTC to be financial free…

Which is; providing us some tools which makes us happy….

Better to buy and use them cause whiteout knowing time is up and our body lays between the wooden planks…

The coffin is for everyone, one just needs to decide ending in one with a lot of BTC or with some BTC and lots of experiences….

I know my choice.

Naaaah  first time…

Those shots was a different story which ended well, luckily.

There is no pattern to me buying stuff that relates to the price of BTC. I know for you that would be the way to go about it, for me it's more about how life unfolds and what I like to do in that moment. As we all know you are much better at managing your stash then me and that's just the way it is. But on the other hand, I have a Lambo

Congrats!

Amusing activity/post ratio you got there.





Ahh, to be young again!
Hey, didn't you have this before?
I thought that was those hospital bed shots you dropped were?

Opposite with bitcoin, no?

I would argue and have argued that an ATH anywhere in 2022 could still be considered within a 4-year cycle way of framing the BTC price dynamics - even though technically it is not exact - and anyone expecting a price theory to follow exactness is overly caught up in likely to be meaningless technical details.  Let's see how such an ATH in 2022 plays out (if it does?) and if it were to continue past 2022 or peak out and have a large ass (such as in the ballpark of 60%+ correction) in 2022, 2023 or thereafter (if it does?), and then see what we are going to call it (or reframe it) after we have actual facts that flesh it out a bit... which is seeming way too early to say that we are going to call it a breaking of the 4-year cycle based on where we are at, currently, as I type this post.  

In other words, I will believe it when I see it.

In other words, I would like the facts to actually help me to understand and to dictate (frame) what we have, rather than a speculation of the facts that have not played out yet... and may well not even play out in any manner anticipated or they might end up just falling back into our previous framework.,. we don't know yet.


Why is it so strange that you like to post your consumption pictures at times in which it is quite ambiguous about cashing out any BTC...

I am not striving to hate on your consumption.. but just seems to be a weird pattern of yours... .,. remember at $600/700 in late 2016, when you were doing the same thing?  and you also did it at a kind of weird time in terms of when you got your Tesla, no?  or maybe that time was more normal during the early 2021 run up to to $64,895, no? For sure, you are not the ONLY one.. but still comes off as strange with weird mixed messages for this here cat.

Explanation

Gentlemen,

I've reached full Lambo, at least to my personal taste. My Lambo does 0-100 in 3.0s on average, and has an average top speed of 275 km/h. I like how it has all the advantages of a 2-cilinder internal combustion engine, as well as all of the advantages of a dual motor electric vehicle.



Thank you Bitcoin.

And thank you to some shitcoins

Most people i know had three days of mild sickness.
But please _Dude_, relax a couple of days, it's still a novel virus.

EDIT: I had mild headache  over the day and now too, little coughy in the beginning, now scratchy throat and running on half power.
Had two Antigen tests, both negative. Checked all tests for sensitivity to Omicron, the PEI lab lists all four that we got between 20% and 50%  
Son (contact person) has same symptoms but a little milder, negative AG test.
Today he told me, with Omicron, every pupil of his classroom that was PCR tested postive (once a week) was tested negative on AG rapids every day.
Looks like a plot for a imaginary book "How to (not) stop a pandemic"  

My wife does PCR three times a week, so if she gets tested positive after the next two rounds she will spit it for me if my PCR returns negative (above a threshold of 30). I'm curious. Next chance is the kindergarten nanny of our youngest one, she reported her positive PCR test today to all the parents.

3... 2... 1... Omicron!  

New camera Body should arrive Monday, should be sensitive enough for nice starry nightsky pictures as soon as i got over the sickness.
I bet i'll post one of them here 
Enjoying the BTC price action, it's time for a break of the ole 4 year cycle and a new ATH mid 2022, don't you agree? Well, some of you at least 

I've often heard the granularity argument but have never really bought it. The question is whether you really need that kind of granularity and, if you do, are fractions really that much of a hardship? For comfort zones, 20 degrees in F is about 10 degrees in C so arguably (weakly but it's countering a weak argument anyway), C wins out there because we use a 10 aligned counting system. Fahrenheit doesn't really hang off of anything. 0 is temperatures most humans don't experience on any kind of regular basis and 100 is kinda near human body temperature but not so a hard 'F' there too.

As with yourself, I'm not seriously arguing but Fahrenheit is pretty indefensible other than from an inertia stance (which is a decent enough reason in my book). Celsius isn't really much better though (though water is pretty important so it has that but when you get to science, you'll be using K more often than not).

Ultimately guys have to figure out their own comfort levels with the BTC accumulation strategies that they deploy, but over the years, I have had so many guys trying to pigeonhole me into their framework in which they want to be right about the preferred strategy is to attempt to time the market and buy on dips, even if you are DCA'ing you should not be doing it on an ongoing basis, and I just have difficulties appreciating those kinds of strategies, especially for newbies.  Of course, the longer that you have been in bitcoin, then presumably you have been able to accumulate a bit of a stash, so then in those cases there could be some advantages in trying to be more strategic with your buys, but part of the problem is presuming that the BTC price is going to go down - and actually if we look at bitcoin's historical price charts, we will likely be able to identify that on a daily basis bitcoin has tendencies to go down more than it goes up, but when it ends up going up, there are like less than 20 days in any particular year that you had better have had been in bitcoin on those days because you get punished for not being in....so for me, part of the lesson remains always having a decent amount of stake in BTC that prepares you for UP, even if you might well want to attempt to be strategic regarding buying on dips... So in that regard, for me, on a general basis the primary strategy should be DCA and the secondary strategy of buying on dips can be there to supplement such DCA strategy.



That's even more important for newbies to bitcoin... yet even people who have been in bitcoin a long time end up committing the same mistakes of trying to be too strategic in holding off with too much of their fiat stash that they allow to accumulate rather than buying BTC regularly with it.

Instead of taking the newbie as our hypothetical, let's take the person who has already been in bitcoin for a couple of years.  Surely there is going to be quite a bit of discretion regarding how to manage the bitcoin portfolio after already being in bitcoin for a couple of years, but a couple of years still might not have been enough time to really get very close to fuck you status, even if coming into bitcoin with an already existing portfolio of investments and a decent amount of cashflow to be able to dedicate towards investing into BTC.

In early 2020, this hypothetical person already decided to get into bitcoin, but was not exactly 100% gungho about bitcoin, so initially when getting into bitcoin, this person was considering just putting 1% of his/her investment portfolio into bitcoin and to establish a proportional DCA'ing into bitcoin that allowed for continued investment into traditional investments and BTC at the same time.

So let's say this hypothetical person had $200k in investments, and also this person had a cashflow that allowed for the setting aside of an additional $1k per month into investments and on average 2 per year comes across an additional $2k per year that can be put into investments.

A really conservative BTC approach causes such person to reallocate 1% into bitcoin, and thereafter maybe DCA with 5% of new cashflow into bitcoin... not totally whimpy.. but not overly aggressive either.

Start of reallocation in January 2020

$198k traditional investments    $2k  Bitcoin (0.25 BTC at $8k)

Investment over 1st year  = $14k  ($1k x 12 & $2k x 2)

Invested amount after 1st year (between January  2020 and January 2021)

Traditional investments              BTC
 $13.3k  (95% * $14k)            $700 (0.07777 BTC at $9k)

After first year

Traditional investment 10% appreciation        


$198k + $13.3k = $211.3k + $21.13 = $232.43k              


BTC at about ($30k, so around 3.5x appreciation)

0.25 BTC + 0.07777 BTC =  0.32777 BTC  = $9,833

Invested amount = $2,700


Our problem here does end up being a lack of aggressiveness in allocation towards bitcoin rather than the actual approach, and of course, we likely see that either front-loading the BTC investment likely pays off better or there may well need to be a passages of several cycles before really seeing the BTC investment payoff - which of course, I could go through various formulas to even show that someone who has been in bitcoin for less than one cycle (less than 4 years) likely will still need be stacking sats on a regular basis, and perhaps even more aggressively in the 10% to 25% arena rather than in the 1% to 5% arena and not getting so much caught up in terms of trying to time the market... even though there could be some dedication of just buying at various regular points and also saving some of the budget for buying on dips, too.



Exactly... and when we get to 8-10 years down the road there might not be really BIG differences in how much stress that you have created for yourself in terms of trying to time the market if you end up missing out.. and it might not matter very much whether in 2015/2016 you were able to buy 10 bitcoins with your $5k budget at an average of $500 each or you were able to actually get lucky (presuming that you could actually figure it out) and get 20 BTC at $250 with that same $5k....   And that is presuming that you could have even come up with $5k rather than DCA investing over several years, so in that regard, you may end up being way better off to have invested $30k over three or four years (let's say between 2015 and 2017) and got 30 BTC, even if those BTC ended up averaging you $1k each.


I supposed if you barely reached fuck you status, that is presuming that you are using a formula that more or less projects you to maintaining your current standards of living.. and maybe even you could have some upgrades just to be at entry level fuck you status.  So I am not sure how much higher than entry level fuck you status you would need to be in order to include the cost of keeping a Lambo in there.

I will go along with the seeming presumption that a Lambo is completely new to your lifestyle, and also go along with our presumption of a $2 million BTC accumulation level (using our 208-week moving average - presuming that either BTC is your only investment or that you are reaching $2 million by combining your various investments while still using the 208-week moving average for calculating the value of the BTC portion of your investment portfolio).

Do you really need very much more if you add a lifetime Lambo into your budget?  On average, a Lambo could cost anywhere
between $300k and $600k - and maybe average annual maintenance/storage/insurance might cost you less than 10%... so maybe $30k to $40k for maintenance?... Ok... maybe you would need to add an additional $500k to $1 million onto your overall budget.. just to have the cushion.. You cannot just be going around buying Lambos and expecting to maintain them without being able to afford them and make sure that such expense is not eating into your overall principle... so instead of needing 4x fuck you status, I believe you could still add a Lambo by merely amending your fuck you status up by 1.25x to 1.5x... of course, depending on some of the particulars.    

We could vary on our assessment of this kind of expense, and surely I am ball-parking the idea.  Several times, I have criticized some consumption practices of folks who buy goods/services that they really cannot afford...so surely a lambo is likely one of those things that you have to make sure that you have your various bases covered before entering into such contract... and at the same time, I surely would not want the perfect to become the enemy of the good.  We have seen some guys in this here thread asserting that they need like 10x - 20x higher levels of fuck you status just to maintain their standard of living because they are expecting to need to continue to increase their standard of living.. and it just seems a bit ridiculous to me to suggest that you are pricing yourself out of getting into fuck you status because of those kinds of considerations.. because surely if you are able to live within your means.. even when you are already in some level of fuck you status, you are going to be quite likely able to continue to increase your wealth (through passive means - and even the way that you manage your BTC investment and your other investments) - even while it might seem that you are  or not engaging in other kinds of active forms of productive work to generate cashflow or to pay for your expenses (health insurance remains a pretty BIG one for peeps - especially in the USA)...  


For sure.