EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4112. (Read 26711453 times)
January 26, 2022, 02:34:16 PM
Low time frame charts getting bouncy jumpy
EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
EDIT: Stopped watching. Looks too fragile to me. Some drama ahead?
January 26, 2022, 02:33:20 PM
BREAKING: The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged for now.
Rumor: 25 basis points each of the next two dates starting March.
So do we buy the rumor or sell the news? Oh yeah. I don't do either of those... I hold the waves.
Rumor: 25 basis points each of the next two dates starting March.
So do we buy the rumor or sell the news? Oh yeah. I don't do either of those... I hold the waves.
January 26, 2022, 02:10:13 PM
What caused this? I thought it was still some time left for the Fed meeting 
Edit: Welp, that felt like a shitcoin going 100% down in minutes lmao.
Edit: Welp, that felt like a shitcoin going 100% down in minutes lmao.
January 26, 2022, 02:01:24 PM
January 26, 2022, 01:49:04 PM
Y'all ready for this???
It's gonna get crazy... FAST... in my humble opinion.
I bet the IMF is PISSED. Because they know what's coming. The game theory part of the whole thing is about to kick in to the EXTREME.
It's gonna get crazy... FAST... in my humble opinion.
I bet the IMF is PISSED. Because they know what's coming. The game theory part of the whole thing is about to kick in to the EXTREME.
January 26, 2022, 01:48:57 PM
January 26, 2022, 01:44:34 PM
Good observation there...
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.
EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday.
EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.
EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday.
EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So
Thanks Mate! Also, thanks for the link lmao.. was looking for this.
Let's see how it goes.
January 26, 2022, 01:09:11 PM
January 26, 2022, 01:08:22 PM
I guess they don't mean the bank allows you to buy Bitcoin and send it to your own address, right? In that case, they're teaching their customers the wrong thing. Paypal did that already.
January 26, 2022, 01:07:52 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?
There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.
Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha
On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....
So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.
I think the first simple indicator we need to see to determine a top is in is a simple lower low. Which depending on your interpretation would be somewhere between 29313 and 30k.
I think, unfortunately this is DEFINITELY a non-zero chance scenario. :/ In fact... if we do not see a turnaround from where we are it's a fair certainty. I feel like this is the type of thing John Madden (RIP) would say. "For this team to win they are going to need to get the ball down the field, and score!".
Well in this case, for Bitcoin not to go further down, it needs to start going up!
Seems to me there are fundamentals that support the go-up scenario... and there are certain events, and some technical reasons we should be prepared for downity as you like to put it.
Either way I will be fine, though I admit, a third push to a new ATH would be a nifty new thing to happen "this cycle".
January 26, 2022, 01:01:34 PM
January 26, 2022, 01:01:26 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?
There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.
Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha
On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....
So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.
Sane reasoning there, J.
I am a poker player, so i always try to expect the unexpected, even if against the odds. Since Bitcoin didn't do this (tumbling because of bans and politics) before, this cycle, could as well be longer than those in the past. The odds that Bitcoin will persist are above 99,9% though, just because it's great and fits that narrow gap which fiat can't close, as it is.
January 26, 2022, 12:43:33 PM
Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?
There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.
Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha
On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....
So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.
January 26, 2022, 12:35:56 PM
Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.
Good observation there...
But have you also noticed that it tested the 200WMA in the past only when it crossed the 50WMA before it was peaking?
This is not the case with the last dip, but the mid-2021 dip almost was such a breach.
We'll sure find out.
EDIT: Waiting for that Fed statement, thought it was announced to happen yesterday.
EDIT2: One and a half hour to go... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90AwHT7h1So
January 26, 2022, 12:31:10 PM
Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.
I believe you are invoking Raja's prophesy.
January 26, 2022, 12:25:09 PM
By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said: "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture. I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.
One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.
One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.
hahaha i also sent this pic to someone and this was the reply :p
Yes.... Peeps can be quite easily distracted, and even triggered into the relation of various shitcoins to bitcoin, and I am not even going to deny that bitcoin does not have some relations to the various shitcoins - including that some of the public sentiment leads to actions and even the development of financial instruments/vehicles around shitcoins.... so in some sense there could be some ongoing drag upon bitcoin, but also we do see every once in a while such as early 2019 in which shitcoins get punished as fuck while bitcoin goes up.. even if there is a kind of temporary separation, those kinds of price dynamics do happen from time to time - and really don't want to call them too early.. even though currently shitcoins are getting beat up worse than bitcoin, but there could end up being a kind of market realization that some froth needs to be purged and bitcoin is not part of that froth... that would be the smart move of the market.. but the market is not always smart - whether we are talking about distraction into scamcoins, meme coins, ICOs, NFTs.. or whatever other quasi-valueless shitcoin project of the day .. that may well be eligible for a purge in the near term....... not sure if that will affect all of those easily distracted folks.. but surely some of them end up seeing the light when we get such purgenings of shitcoins/shitprojects with a simultaneous pumpening of king daddy.
January 26, 2022, 12:01:27 PM
Found something really interesting. Everytime BTC goes below 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.
Not saying it has to do this again but something to look at.
January 26, 2022, 12:01:24 PM
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