I don't disagree with anything you stated.
But...one thing people don't realize, is that the Fed/Treasury is no longer in the business of printing cheap money for the benefit and investment of the U.S. and it's citizens, or any other established country for that matter.
That time is loooong passed.
They now print money (trillions of $$$) purely for foreign investment and capital expansion. Bush Jr. used to call it "nation building". Whatever, it is is simply injecting huge capital into a foreign country whose middle class is finally on it's way up and up, with the hope of getting major returns on investment (and swindling all the Average Joes out of their hard-earned savings in the process).
It's the world's biggest grift.
The last one was China, but now that has run its course and has imploded. Spectacularly.
This is why everything sux right now, and the Fed had to raise rates.
They are currently in between stages of planning and investment, but still have a LOT of excess money lying around doing fuck all. Which is why you see all the interim churn, and mega free money subsidies (aka ESG/DEI/Woke agenda) going to Hollywood and media rn. And to Tech startups with shit ideas that will go nowhere. And also propping up the banks.
India will be the next country to receive mega $$$$ injection, mark my words. It'll be like China was 10-15 years ago, but with India instead.
That is when you will see Fed rates fall again. They will then be off to the races.