Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4290. (Read 26713938 times)

Look what you did, he was going up above 49 and you blocked that...

Explanation

Debating to block buddies 3 bagger or not.

I guess I go for the block wtfn?

Explanation

Explanation

I thought that I sufficiently explained myself regarding both stocktoflow and planB...so we may well be talking past each other to a certain extent - and I still think that you are the one who continues to fail/refuse to appreciate what the stocktoflow model is based on and what it is saying.. .and you just seem to want to get caught up in personalities and even attributing way too high of probabilities to even what either stocktoflow or planB is saying. Even if several times you make decent points, it's almost as if you are quibbling for the mere sake of it.

In the end, everyone here (you, me and PlanB) seems to agree that there continues to be a lot of decently strong UPwards price pressures on BTC.. so who gives any ratt's asses how closely such future performance might end up conforming with BTC price models that might be better at showing what happened rather than what is going to happen... In the end, people are going to make choices regarding whether to get into bitcoin and how to strategize their getting in in terms of how fast they might try to get in based on their circumstances.

Guys like you, me and even PlanB are likely already sufficiently in, so maybe we are moreso inclined to consider the extent to which we might allow our views about future BTC price actions to influence if we sell any BTC now or if we wait for higher prices (in the event such higher prices happen as we expect)... so in the end, are there much if any material differences in which we might see the BTC price going.. and seem to me that you are getting irritated because you believe that PlanB attributes more certainty to UPpity than it deserves..so newbies are getting lured into BTC under such false pretenses, and I assert that you are likely exaggerating the extent to which newbies are being mislead, and maybe even you are continuously contradicting yourself because you have already said several times that you do not give any shits about newbies.  So what is it that you give a shit about?  Yeah, it's easy as fuck to criticize models and attribute bad motives to PlanB, but really is that helping anyone to more clearly attempt to think through these matters that in any event remain probability based for all of us. whether we assign higher or lower probability levels to certain happenings?  Yeah, numerous times, I have already criticized PlanB for his supposed "bottom" assignments.. .. and also on numerous occasions, I have also asserted that stocktoflow ideas already existed in BTC before PlanB.. but I still find his laying out the data and even talking about the various rationales behind applying stock to flow to bitcoin remains very helpful depictions and framings of facts and logic.. that lend very good insight to where bitcoin is likely to be going even if the model might be a wee bit off in regards to some of the specifics....

So, again, what good does it do to get so caught up in the weeds of the specifics and to complain about misleading information out there.. I just find it less than helpful that you are continuously seeming to be so worked up about PlanB's model misleading people.. which seems to have little purpose behind it.. and hey what do I know?  are we beating this horse to death?

From hypnogram for "Bitcoin Mania". Hidden prediction revealed by AI?



I also asked it for a bored gorilla and got one for free

Ahh just too stressed

SMS/text 2fa = shit

my bad.


and yes microsoft/auth = save the day.  it is on a cell that I do not share the number with anyone.

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1473739902475018243

Sometimes there can be some aspects of luck in terms of whether something that you did or failed to do had allowed for enough breaches in order for the hacker(s) to find access to some of your coins.

For my early 2017 hackening, I recall that I had some coins on a blockchain.com wallet, and if you recall in 2013-ish blockchain.com would send you an e-mail recovery for your account and I believe that they recommended to remove that recovery to off-line, and for some reason I had created two different blockchain.com wallets, and I had been pretty sure that my funds had been removed from the wallets - and I was also a bit nervous about even attempting to access the account until I had access to my phone number back because I did not want to cause a situation in which I ended up either locking myself out of the wallets or that I ended up giving up a kind of secret in case the hackers were able to get into one of my accounts again.

So on a bit of a side note, I am pretty sure that my phone number had gotten jeopardized, and then I got it locked a few times, and then the hackers were able to get it unlocked again a few times, and so when I went to regain access to my phone number, my phone company had wanted to verify that I took a variety of safety measures first.. which I did and then I got my phone number back..

So getting back to my blockchain.com (.info) account, I was able to access my account, and I had gotten lucky that I had moved my backup seed into my archives, so the ONLY wallet that the hackers could have gotten would have been the second account/wallet that I had created, which did not have any balance of coins therein.  I felt that I got lucky on that one because even blochain.com (info) had a weak way of sending your backup over e-mail.. which could have been jeopardized and maybe even the creator might not have realized where the weakness had been.  Needless to say, after I had gotten back access to that blockchain.com wallet with all the coins therein, I figured out some better storage means for those coins.. and surely I had ended up learning quite a bit that I should have already known prior to the hack but for some reason I was not inspired to learn (maybe even scared to make certain changes or moves or to attempt to practice with back-up methods) until after i had been hacked and several of the vulnerabilities had become more clearly recognizable and some of the vulnerable areas were not even complicated fixes that likely increased security x100 based on some fairly basic changes.


I do say screw em quite a lot, but I still believe that I am kind of a softie if someone is actually seriously inquiring into BTC, and maybe not even that seriously inquiring into BTC.  Frequently, I will try to help for a little while to get them to understand both the value proposition of BTC and the prudence of taking some significant and meaningful steps, even if it is just small steps to have a very small allocation of their networth (which is implicitly talking about their investment portfolio) into BTC. 

So surely if I am talking about bitcoin with almost anyone - once we get into such a topic - I will give them a few chances to say dumb shit, before I really give up... and just tell them that "they can do whatever the fuck they like.. I tried to help them to help themselves.."...and sometimes (maybe frequently it is the case) they seem resistant to recognize and appreciate the BTC value proposition.. including that my own personal financial/psychological situation is likely to continue to improve whether or NOT they take any actions to invest in bitcoin and/or to have likely odds of improving their lot because of such actions to invest in bitcoin.

I get your point and agree. But what if the hardware wallet has a whole bunch of predefined seeds, and one day are all swiped empty? What if the seed generation turns out to be not truly random?

(using an extended passphrase on top of the seed mostly solves this, and/or multisig)


Printing the BIP-39 words and draw them from a hat can't be messed with and is rather fool proof.

Explanation

Yes old school is the way to go. Makes zero sense rip up a note and give part of it someone else to look after. Defeats whole purpose of Bitcoin.
After some battle with a Chinese exchage years ago the issue was done with. Gold coins/bar do just fine without.
Dont have more as spendig money in my purse why would be more on a phone wallet.

Yeah I agree. There have been attempts in the past to try to make addresses easier to use, but they all had attack vectors and compromises.

Alas, I don't really see a good solution until banks start to allow btc to be stored in online accounts, with multi-level security protocols in place to make sure btc can't leave without adequate validation of the true account holder. Banks would also have to integrate something like Lightning rails in order to make transactions fast.

But of course even if they did this, it violates the whole "hold your own keys, be your own bank" original purpose of Bitcoin. Not like the masses would even care, though.

It's still 2FA; two-factor authentication. TOTP based specifically, not SMS based.

Careful what you wish for, lest you get the boot.

I want an NFT to a native American cave wall painting. Or to Neil Armstrong's boot print on the moon.

You misunderstood, J.

I did not say it would go sideways until mid-2024. I said that PlanB is saying that if the price were to stay in the lower bounds of his S2F model, that it would still be valid. And that if you look at the lower bounds of the $40-55k range on his chart, it extends out until mid-2024.

So ask yourself, what is HE saying then? But I guess we're the looney/out of touch ones, not him?


PlanB is who made the initial claims, and is now moving the goalposts. Why should you conform to his redefinition of success or failure of the S2F model along with him?

Now, do I personally think it'll stay in this price range all the way to mid 2024? Well of course not. I don't even think it'll stay here all the way through next year.

Bitcoin no does not do sideways.

So whether you or PlanB would be saying sideways until 2024 that sounds like a ridiculously unlikely scenario, and either of you would be looney or out of touch with reality to be saying it.

The last that I heard is that PlanB was expecting an average of $100k for this halvening period, and we are slightly less than half way through the period.. so surely it is interesting to see if such an average could be achieved.. and for sure if our price has already been quite lower than half of the median expected amount, then it would have a lot of price to make up for the second half of the period.. and still I would NOT be suggesting that those $100k median prices are impossible... even if they might seem like a stretch currently and even if maybe we were to end up getting a median price that ends up way lower than $100k.. even a median of something like $80k would probably not feel like a failure to a lot of us.. especially since anything close to reality based models are already known to be be guidelines rather than guaranteed.

And, by the way, fuck the noobs or anyone who would be so gullible to consider something like PlanB's model to be anything close to guaranteed, and fuck the attempts to ascribe that level of gullibility to a lot of us folks who believe that PlanB's model still remains amongst the best of the BTC price prediction models currently in existence.. even if there are likely anecdotal examples of some folks who ascribe way too high of levels of certainty to such models.. or thinking that such models need to meet the exact levels of averages that PlanB ascribed in order to NOT be failures...   

Oh.. I was just thinking that it could be that we end up having something like $50k average for this halvening period.. and surely at that point maybe aspects of PlanB's model might need to be reconsidered.. and so 50% performance from the expectations of the model might well be considered as a possible failure.. perhaps?  perhaps?  I personally am not even willing to consider a $50k average (if it were to occur) for this halvening period as a failure yet.. let's see how the second half of this halvening period plays out..   Surely, we do not seem to be in any kind of bad place in spit of so much of the doom and gloom and seemingly wishful thinkings about the supposed death of a model.. how many times does oh gawd have to be said on this topic?..... even though it still remains interesting to see where we have been, where we are at and where we might well be going into the coming quarters.. and surely stretching to the rest of this halvening period.

Edit:  I see that Gachapin makes some similar points as me, but still his framings are a bit different on some of the points, so I will just leave my above response "as originally drafted."