Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4285. (Read 26714044 times)

Seems to be a similar point that I was trying to make in my post (and yeah, you beat me to it Loycebot), but actual real world examples showing the variance.
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but that is dca for a year with zero hold after the year.

if you dca 5 a day in 2011 turning the 265 into 407 a year later in 2011 and just hodl till now you would have over 4 usd million worth of BTC.

$407 in 2012 march 21 was how many btc ? about 81 btc so 81 x 50k = 4 million +

so dca and hold  for 1 year has not always worked as a profit for that 1 year so what.

how about dca for 3 years hold the coin

so
2011 to 2014 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2012 to 2015 795 in and what out at end of 3 years
2013 to 2016
2014 to 2017
2015 to 2018
2016 to 2019
2017 to 2020
2018 to 2021

any of those 3 would be really fucking good 

on second thought maybe march 21 2017 to march 21 2020   could be weak

I agree that both BTC portfolio management and considering how to individually tailor goes beyond mere HODLing - even if HODLing might comprise a decently-sized role.. and of course, if there is a desire to create, maintain and build generational wealth, there seems to be some kind of need for guidance beyond asserting that it took "a few years" to get to such place... . even though many of us likely can recognize and appreciate that bitcoin has the ability to accelerate both wealth accumulation/generation and also both getting to fuck you status and beyond, too.



Regarding your point about peeps getting sick of you.... oh gawd... 

Regarding your point about a kind of profundity that might exist from the disappearance of the 4-year cycle.. seems that the theory has been batted around a quite a bit.. so it is not exactly new to weigh one perspective versus another perspective.

Regarding your point about peeps trying to time the market including presuming that the 4-year cycle has ended.. yes, we see that kind of behavior all the time, too... including peeps selling around previous ATH and including people following a variety of nonsense theories (or spins on theories) that cause them to sell too much too soon.

Is there something deeper going on or some angle that is uniquely of your spinnenings?

 

 


For sure, fair point that there are so many ways to take advantage of people wanting to short-cut the process in terms of getting rich quicker.. but then not so much knowing that they are being played.. and sometimes even realizing that they are being played but that they will be able to get in and out of the investment, make a quick buck, and not end up being the one left holding the bags of crap.... some folks who get left holding the bags had already been left holding the bags in the past, but figure that this time they are going to be able to play it better.. and maybe sometimes it ends up working for them.  Perhaps?


Seems to be a similar point that I was trying to make in my post (and yeah, you beat me to it Loycebot), but actual real world examples showing the variance.

Ford has a better idea
all electric cabs

https://www.foxnews.com/auto/electric-ford-mustang-mach-e-built-hacks

Cinquanta!

Explanation

The Wachowski brothers decided to become the Wachowski sisters.

 

 cinquanta!

You make it sound enjoyable compared with what I have seen.

Yeah I decided to try a yubikey. I don't need it right away buy amazon had them and I have some gift cards on the z so wtfn?

Have to say thank god I had the microsoft auth.

Oh still trying to get the number parted back to me.

and still tracking down each and every account that used that number.

I do not think I am in bad shape with much wealth at risk at the moment.

It could have been a very shitty christmas for me.

oh tracfone said a huge amount of illegal porting happened this december so they are backed up fixing it.

Surely that picture is not depicting bitcoins.. perhaps satoshis or some unit that is smaller than a bitcoin, no?



Many Plebs do not have lump sums to invest, so sure there may well be advantages to lump sum, if you have it, but even if you have $12k, you might not want to invest the whole $12k all at once.. and of course, there's quite a bit of discretion in that.. even though we know that DCA can be a very powerful anytime get started strategy.. Lump sum is also not without its drawbacks, even if you have it as an option... One thing that is good about options is actually having them.. so in that regard, many of us can appreciate that if we have created options for our lil selfies (whether referring to our chosen investment in bitcoin or other things that we may have done in our lives to expand the kinds of resources that we are able to access in the event that we want to).

You can run Microsoft/auth on any system, including an airgapped one. The auth keys can be backed up separately from your btc private keys or exchange passwords/keys. Seems almost equivalent to me.

I am confident it was my post earlier today … https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58798796

I think I will as they would likely be more durable than a phone using microsoft/auth

I don't get the reference.
I thought the duct taped banana refers to this:

 
https://www.gq.com/story/suddenly-the-koons-is-this-100k-banana

https://twitter.com/TechDev_52/status/1474122346231472130

Also, many of the charts that I see about bitcoin is that you are not necessarily guaranteed any return, and sure there is discussion of the kinds of returns that you might get in a year in that infographic and even showing 355% returns for a year.. which seems quite well in the realm of wishful-thinking hopium.. .

Perhaps you might get returns of 355% after 4-10 years.. but even expecting that level of return even in 4-10 years seems to contain too much wishful-thinking hopium.. and even worse if you are expecting those kinds of returns in less than 4-10 years.

I would suggest 10% to 20% annual returns (CAGR - Capital Annual Growth Rate) after being into bitcoin 4-10 years would be somewhat reasonable.. while also realizing that level 10% to 20% is not guaranteed, either.. and also understanding that you could end up getting higher results than the 10 to 20% level.. perhaps?  perhaps?  

A large number of us who have been in bitcoin for a decent amount of time.. just say through a whole cycle of 4 years and maybe even in the ballpark of 4-10 years (and erring on the side of accumulation and HODL), and did not screw too many things up along the way have actually gotten CAGRs that vary anywhere between 30% and 150%.. Of course it is going to be harder to achieve those higher numbers even if you do everything right.  

I have recently created a spreadsheet in which I attempt to give myself some kind of approximation of my personal CAGR in connection with my bitcoin related investing activities, which is based on a bit more than an 8-year investment timeline and seems that my CAGR seems to be right in the ballpark of 60%... which I consider to be pretty damned good... yet there could well be guys who are able to show CAGRs higher than me within the 30% and 150% range.  I do have some screw ups in there.. by the way.

Let me go out on a limb with a "downity before uppity"


Not that we need too, but I think we may be getting double crossed.

This beautiful pumplet with healthy volume could be followed by a sharp dump "casually" happening on the mother of all option expiries on the last day of 2021, which happens to be a Friday.
Meanwhile, covid data about the omicron blah blah, new lockdowns blah blah, economy going to the dogs blah blah, you know it all already (at least if you've been following the WO for any length of time beyond a few months.)

OMG disaster! Global economy will never recover! Corn is dumping! So doom, much cry! It was a bull trap! Sell sell sell! The last panic for the (very few) remaining weak hands.

Early 2022: the inevitable has been delayed multiple tiimes and cannot be postponed anymore. The sweet moonshot hugs the true hodlers left "holding the bag".



-Standard SOMA disclaimer-

Explanation

...and pretty looking volume too