Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4368. (Read 26711605 times)

Go for 51K 🚀

Explanation

As it seems, CSW evangelists are calling it a win, because the jury did not decide against his claims to be Satoshi (nor did they in favor), but they act like "you see, he IS satoshi".
Cobra's comment on twitter was "So coins gonna be moved?"
To me, it is saying a lot. Of course, (Satoshi's) coins will not be moved.

It's not about if CSW is right or wrong with his claims, it's about evangelism. And comedy, depending on which side one stands  

Heck Yeah Just got a notification from coinbase and here I am to enjoy with you guys.

LFG. Body needs 60s

50's back, baby!

thank you for your service

It is if it’s just saved you 24.9 billion. Still think he’s full of shit though

We never left.

boom. bulls are back

Haha, this is what the scumbags call a win ?

Explanation

As 50k returns to give us a little kiss i also notice that in the Faketoshi trial:

Defense win on all claims except conversion. Jury awards $100 million to W&K Info Defense on that count. No punitive damages.

I do not know what this means.  But the BSV folks are spinning it as a win. 

I think what this means is they found for the PLAINTIFFS in the amount of 100 million dollars?

I guess this why the shittiest of the shitcoins is rallying

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/craig-wright-wins-dispute-over-50-billion-in-bitcoin-but-identity-of-bitcoin-s-founder-still-unproven/ar-AARxnvO

The battle for $50k rages on. Wouldn't be surprised if we'd break this resistance today. 

Absolutely, in the short-term I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 Week MA tested again anytime this week, or otherwise the 200 Day MA around $46.5K, given that it hasn't been re-tested yet since the initial crash and recovery. To me price "just" looks long-term bullish (as it always did), and is now at long-term support, so without wanting to short/sell at this long-term support, I find it hard to focus too much on the short-term bearish factors. It's the sort of sideways trading that's the usual set-up for further lows, but this ignores the exception of when this happens at strong support. Price could wick down to $40K in an intra-day scale for example, but as long as price closes back above it's key support levels on a Daily & Weekly time-frames, then it will only make price action look more bullish with further confirmation of buying pressure at support.

It's not like the lack of confluence at higher levels when price was also long-term bullish but otherwise short-term bearish making lower lows and a long way away from long-term support, while otherwise being relatively uncertain on a mid-term scale. It's confusing stuff, hard to be that sure what the outcome could be, even if it indicates a correction could happen which it eventually did. Whereas here the the mid to long-term (Daily/Weekly) is screaming bullish against the short-term bearish factors. Makes much more sense to me. But I realise for others this is time to be concerned, I get that.

The reason for the extreme fear is pretty clear, just like previously at $30K or $40K support, if price were to go much lower, then all hell "could" break loose. At a minimum, closing below $40K would more of less confirm the end of the uptrend, and while not really confirming a bear market, it'd indicate consolidation at a minimum. Maybe another year for example, since $30-$70K has been nearly a year already.

To me that's not of much concern, the idea of remaining within the same range price has effectively been in for 12 months, without a parabolic top and after confirming a recovery, but I can't speak for any investors or traders from the past year who think that $20K or $10K could end up getting re-tested, after getting in around $40K, simply because price has twice got rejected from $64K+. Each to their own I guess  


Not surprised   I think it price were to go significanty lower, like sub $46.2K, then we would have seen it already. Despite the lack of quick recovery, there are more weak hands to flush out for stronger ones, about 10-month worth minimum, so it's not surpsing this may take a little longer than expected or usual, and until then a tight trading range will develop... above an accumulation zone non-ironically.

Explanation

A few hours ago, I had seen a reference to this survey in fillippone's thread, and I did not realize that the claim was in reference to all Americans... and fuck do I have to actually go look at the survey summary rather than just asserting that it is bullshit?

No way that 26% of adult Americans own bitcoin - even if the ownership threshold were to happen to be as low as $10 (0.0002 BTC) worth of BTC... and I am not sure if we could concede that some threshold of less than $50 (0.001 BTC) worth of BTC ownership would actually constitute (anything beyond ant dust) meaningful and substantial BTC ownership...

Ok... I did a quickie look at the matter and it seems that I have identified the issue on the third page under "Survey Methodology":  There is a link to the survey in this post from earlier today.

>>>>
"An online survey of 1,000 U.S. consumers was conducted by
8 Acre Perspective between August 12, 2021, and August 20,
2021. All respondents were between the ages of 25 and 64,
and had primary or shared responsibility for household financial
decision-making. All respondents were involved in some form of
personal investing, with at least $10,000 in household investable
assets (excluding workplace retirement plans or real estate), and
at least $50,000 in household income."
<<<<

I do not mind extrapolating from a survey size of 1,000 participants.. I have no problem with that, but if you think about who Grayscale surveyed, they are not even close to surveying "all Americans" as the above referenced tweet summarizes (so maybe it is NOT Grayscale's fault but the summary's fault)...

To particularize, the surveyed persons have to have at least a $10k investment portfolio... excluding various 401ks (retirement plans) and real estate.... .. so then who the fuck would be left as supposed Americans eligible for the survey?   There may be a few of us who regularly participate in this thread who would be eligible to participate in such Grayscale survey, but Jesus did we not already see information that most Americans do not even have enough savings to cover $500 in expenses.. and there is plenty of other information out there that the ONLY investments that a vast majority of Americans have is either their 401k(retirement plan) or their own individual homes.. once you eliminate these people from being eligible to participate in the Grayscale survey then we are likely dealing with elites to be eligible to participate inm such survey to even have $10k of investments outside of the two categories of retirement plans and real estate..

Sure I know that $10k is not a lot for an investment portfolio threshold but still likely 80% to 90% of actual American adults are eliminated from even having that large of an investment portfolio outside of their home and retirement plan.. and so therefore from the survey we have a best-case scenario of 26% of the 20% of adult Americans that would have even been eligible to be in the Grayscale survey, which puts us right around 5% of all Americans who would be claiming to own some bitcoin (and is that bitcoin exposure?).. and that is best case scenario.. and I rest my case... even though I could probably make some more arguments.. but who wants to argue.. when the likely situation that involves how many people actually own bitcoin is obviously exaggerated right on the face of it (at least the tweet summary of what the Grayscale survey means).

I will add that many times several of us WO regulars have asserted that we suspect world-wide adoption of BTC to be likely quite a bit less than 1%, and for sure many of us likely realize that there still are pockets of BTC hoarders (and some of us might be hoarders too.. not saying that there is anything wrong with BTC hoarders.. but it brings down the likely distribution level of BTC amongst other normies) or maybe even we know about some circles in which we might find something in the level of 5% to 10% BTC adoption within some of those theoretical circles (maybe a group of software Engineers in Munich, Germany, expat surfers in El Salvador, college football players at UC Berkeley, or some other niche group) , but I doubt that we are going to find pockets much larger than 10% when we start going further out into the general population - except maybe if we might be focusing in on a potential Grayscale client group who have to already be into investing with a portfolio of at least $10k (outside of the value of their real estate investments and their retirement portfolios)..

Actually, I know some pretty well-off folks who seem to ONLY own real estate... and some other groups of people who happen to have retirement plans (but not too much ownership of any investments beyond that), and yeah, these normies are not diversified enough in their investments to even be qualified as a Grayscale survey participant..,. same is true for the 25 to 35 year olds who have not advanced to investing beyond their 401ks...  yeah, they graduated from college, landed a pretty good job, and they invest into a 401k.. and that's about it.. and if they have been aggressive with their 401ks, by the time they are 35, the rare ones may have accumulated somewhere in the $300k to $500k arena.... since we had also seen information that even folks approaching retirement in their 50s and 60s do not even tend to have more than $500k in such retirement plans, and sure maybe those folks who are starting to build equity in their retirement plans and real estate might start to feel some inclinations to diversify investing outside of their 401k or their personal homes, but maybe one of the first things that they might invest into would be to buy a home or a second home?