Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4369. (Read 26711605 times)

Explanation

Explanation

According to onchain data "new" buyers tend more to panic selling than hodlers. (...)
But 66% is not bad.

“According to @Grayscale's latest survey:

- 26% of adult Americans own Bitcoin
- 55% bought Bitcoin in the last 12 months
- 66% of new Bitcoin buyers are hodling it”


https://twitter.com/blockworks_/status/1467860864166506498?s=21

Good point, this reminds me of my previous theory of when Bitcoin goes parabolic again. We saw this in 2017 from $5K to $20K when shitcoins got wrecked, in the sense of generally losing 75%+ of their BTC value, even if the $ value remained relatively stagnant until the end of the year, as BTC dominance bounced from 50% to 70%. I was expecting this back in October when shitcoins started correcting against BTC and we saw new ATH, but since then they have recovered back to their 60% market dominance. It's also why I started to become sceptical of maintaining new ATH in mod October, as BTC dominance got rejected from it's mulit-year downtrend, so wasn't looking promising. In hindsight, I was being a bit too optimistic given the strong downtrend, but I still think it will happen sooner rather than later.

I'm hoping that Bitcoin finally get's it's bounce from 40% back to around 60%, in order to return a decent 20% of the overall market back to Bitcoin, and take back the majority for the first time since April. I'm aware this cycle has so far been very different from the last, and resembles more like 2013, but I still think shitcoins are in for a considerable wreckage prior to a market top, as this is what happened in the previous cycle. Even as much as 10% could be a catalyst I think, that would return $250 million value back to Bitcoin roughly, more than enough to push prices into a solid recovery, while shitcoins stagnate or correct against $. Ethereum doesn't even need to drop against BTC either it seems, now that dominance is apparently able to correlate, just the rest of the market would do for now.

Explanation

IMO, main part of retail money goes into shitcoins this cycle. Thanks to WSB movement, many participants of the new "investor army" are throwing life savings at shitcoins with 100x leverage. BTC is "too expensive" for them and "never will deliver returns like [shitcoin name here] will"...
That's maybe also why we still wait for retail money this late in the cycle. Many of them "investors" have to go broke, then the remaining ones might save their funds in BTC, crashing the altcoin market. This is also why i support the delayed BTC top idea.

What about Ethereum traders with +6.5% satoshis? I assume this would be at the top of the list, as was one of the few greens in the market that day. You correctly mention shitcoins declining much further that day, so I think it's only be fair & accurate to represent the change in market values overall. Emotions aside, it's pretty strange how ETH broke out to it's highest level since May 2018, while losing 15% of it's USD value. Never seen a significant ETH/BTC breakout during a BTCUSD crash, nor their dominance correlate in such a manner. Time's have changed, even if nobody wants to hear that factor.


You mean around 10? I'm personally not expecting that, unless there are a few months of further correction to take place, like in May to July of this year.
In September 20 & 21 nicely picked out the bottom at $40K. For sure the beairsh wick has caused more fear, but doesn't mean we need lower fear.

Explanation

Thanks for all your best wishes!
Slept over almost the whole day. Back pain, joint pain, headache and fatigue went on, so i took some low dosed cortisone, which starts to kick in now.
On the negative i got slight fever and my wife also got headache and the shits now  



In utter spheres: Any news on CSW? (giggling)


EDIT:
https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1467900481267712000

But you see, the first letter of my name is capitalized!

As to the spring up we are all hoping for?

We sure aren't seeing much volume.  We are right back to pre spike/crash levels. 

Retail is NOT interested.

We need an OTC desk volume indicator.  One strange thing about Bitcoin is it is ultimately traceable but if a family office buys 1000 BTC from Coinbase's dark pool, AND Coinbase is the custodian.  How would anyone aside from Coinbase and the buyer know it had happened at all.  I could even see some situation in which this would be PREFERABLE to the buyer, although the world we are moving towards (Don't trust. Verify.) is going to want those ledger entries after enough shenanigans happen OFF ledger.

This is also the main reason why I have been grumping at all the idiot monero people acting like BCASHers yelling about how Bitcoin is broken because it is transparent.  I get the sentiment, but I also see Bitcoin's transparency as a feature, not a bug.  It will take time for a lot of people to realize this...

Don’t we still need to visit DED territory?

Explanation

then we need the typical WOer response to  -50%   ...   ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Fuck this fear&greed index! We've got the best furry llama indicator here on WO! 

Not bad. I'd just erase the "-40%" below the "shitcoin trader" text that'd make much more sense IMHO. 

Explanation

New Meme, Created by me: 

Explanation

Checking in on the "Fear & Greed" index for the Bitcoin ^{King Daddy} we have gone
from Greed to Extreme Fear so this indicator points to an upswing ~

The greed indicator coinciding with the run up ... and correction thereafter.