It’s dead.
Death by covid. Bear market, sure. CNBC know what they're talking about, It's obvious.
I don't even get WHY markets dump because of the news.
What do you do with all the fiat after selling your assets?
Or is it more about "sell before everybody else is selling, to get in again after everybody has sold"?
Last weekly candle was well in the red. So I think this is just people selling because they think the expected dump might go deeper because of the covid news. Any hopes of last weeks candle being a bear trap are gone. The dump goes on.
Dump? What dump? This tiny -10% setback will disappear on a yearly (even monthly) graph dwarfed by the enormous multi-10k daily candles of December!
Don't mindrust it now, brethren... Agreed, I think we need to remain more conservative over utilising the phrase "doing a mindrust".
It's reserved for bear market bottoms, or otherwise post crashes, significant ones of at least 50%+. Dumping after a 22% correction from ATH is no where near this concept. Mindrust dumped at a 80% correction if not mistaken, from the $20K highs to the $4K lows. I'd argue that selling at $30K after a 50%+ correction would be doing a mindrust, even if not completely obvious at the time, but not at current prices.
Bare in mind that mindrust's dump came after Bitcoin moved from $4K to $14K and back down to $4K, it was a break-even sell. There was no money lost if not mistaken, only potential profit. One key lesson to learn from this experience is not just dumping at the lows as being a bad move, when price is oversold and at key long-term support, but not taking profits when price is up 3.5x is also an error if you feel over-invested.
While not defending mindrust for his manoeuvre, it's worth remembering he didn't lose any $ over this.
You seem to be correct dragonvslinux that any factual behind-the-scenes updates that we had received from mindrust had him proclaiming to have had been partially motivated to sell his whole around 10 BTC stash at around $4,500-ish during the March 2020 crashening was that he did not want his BTC holdings to go into the negative relative to the dollar. So for sure, he was way overinvested (and he admitted so) because he ended up panicking after a short-term quickie correction of 50%-ish that had occurred over the previous day or so, and he was also seeming to closely be following some stupid-ass Masterluc theories that argued that the BTC price had to correct back into the $1,500-ish price arena (which would have been around our previous 2013 top) or at minimum BTC prices had high chances of returning to sub $2,000 prices, even if it could take a few up and down waves to play out.
It also seemed like this panic-selling was not only based on his $ value going in the red, like it did for most accumulators of the past 4 years at that time, but also because price went below a crucial level he considered to be a point of no return for price. Despite heavy accumulation leading up to this price. I assume this was the 200 Week MA that had been broken, at the time on the Daily chart quite convincingly as well (by around 25% if not mistaken). I'm not going to pretend like I wasn't concerned for the price around this time, but instead was more doubtful about a recovery back to $20K being possible by the end of the year, as I had been earlier in the year, as opposed to the idea of price going lower. But alas, mindrust wasn't convinced that price would hold this level on a Weekly scale, and panic sold.
There is a kind of mindset that exists with people who get too preoccupied with their BTC dollar valuations and fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate bitcoins existence as a pristine asset class.. or even an emerging pristine asset class that should cause and justify ongoing buying at any price and just waiting it out, but instead there sometimes is way too much attempts to time tops and bottoms and then ending up psychologically causing their lil selfies to NOT build themselves into HODLers rather than whiners and bitcoin naysayers. Of course, Billy nocoiner is of a similar type and eXPHorizon and a few other nocoiner/or lowcoiner dweebs who we see posting their nonsense in this thread from time to time.
This mentality is also expected in any emerging asset class I imagine. Especially for those who have been invested for less time, and something that I can imagine doesn't effect you what so ever, but this $ value consideration is very relevant to most holders. Especially those in the past 2-3 years I'd assume. Knowing that you have DCA'd since 2013, I'd assume you've remained up for the past 6+ years. Whereas others who are newer to the market will likely first fluctuate between being up & down against their $ investment, thus much more difficult to ignore. Despite each individual being able to look at the same decade long history of Bitcoin's price movement, it's clearly a lot easier to acknowledge BTC as "pristine asset class" as you put it when your investment is UP, as opposed to when it's not.
Personally I was also happy to see my average DCA in 2019/2020 be in the red, as it motivated and inspired me to accumulate more. Much more so when it would be in the green. But this is because I always had a long-term vision than most new-ish-comers to the market, as well as a lot more conviction in making Bitcoin my primary reserve asset, unlike others who simply wanted to dabble or have some exposure to avoid missing out. Others who simply threw in X amount of fiat at $5K or $10K, generally remained skeptical throughout the entire bear market until price finally got back to $20K. No doubt many of them sold half their stash at this level, in order to only be invested with the house, in order to have less risk in an asset they didn't fully believe in. A lot of this is based on what you perceive Bitcoin to be, whether it's a speculative investment or a reserve asset.
Next week is important isn’t it. I feel like if we don’t start going up by the end of next week then the bull could be over. I’m prepared either way, obviously heavily leaning to wanting up but there are positives to both. Let’s see what happens.
Whoaza, LFC.
You are really caught up in this calendar year nonsense.
Whatever...
You do you.
I am going to remain skeptical regarding bitcoin having to conform to some kind of a calendar year schedule....
I'm also not tied to the doctrine of the calendar, despite so far not seeing the 4 year cycle broken, and considering it to remain relevant today. Until proven otherwise.
This is also because I'm anticipating a top in January/February, definitely not December, given the cycle has generally been 49 months as opposed to 48 months (4 years). One small factor that many have overlooked. A lot can happen in 3 months, as we saw from October-December in 2017 when price increased by 300%. Even a top at $70K in three months wouldn't invalidate the idea of a 4 year cycle for me either, it would only further reinforce it, but likely with much less downside than previous years, if there is a lack of parabolic blow off top. Maybe -65 or -70% rather than -80%, but that's just me. That said, I consider the logarithmic growth targeting $150K to be a lot more relevant than the S2F model, even if there is no time constraint, simply because statistically I understand it much better.
Furthermore many have been confused by Plan B's floor model it seems (completely misunderstood it), which isn't based on stock to flow, but his own understand of it. His $98K by November is merely pulling a number out of hat based on his own interpretation of the market, like many speculators have done so. S2F merely anticipates $83K being a fair price for Bitcoin by 2024, or $122K by 2024 depending on which upgraded version you look at. On average, a target of $100K by 2024, NOT 2021. He has also made it clear that price not reaching $98K by the end of the month, which now looks considerably less likely, doesn't mean that his S2F model is invalidated, but that his floor model is broken. They are independent models after all.
