Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4426. (Read 26710631 times)

oh gawd... 

You act like you are saying something new philip.

Currently gold is ONLY 10x higher market cap than bitcoin, even though bitcoin is likely around 1,000x better than gold in terms of current valuations. .. It is not easy to figure an exact number regarding how much better bitcoin is than gold, but your merely asserting that bitcoin is going to reach gold parity seems to be an understatement and including that you are accounting that gold is going to lose to bitcoin .. which maybe is not outrageous in itself but comes off as even less bullish than attempting to make the assessments in current values.. even though we know that the value of a lot of assets are going to change and some will simultaneously exists but likely hold their value in different ways, especially since bitcoin does seem to be a much more efficient storer of value for a lot of asset classes, and not just gold... I am not sure if I need to elaborate more.... just to question the more narrow point that you seemed to have had been making.

Sounds like a solid plan, well executed. Below is a small critique (from a different perspective).

1. It is more relevant for those who don't have other investments. With bitcoin still appreciating nicely, what's the point of selling an asset that appreciates 100% a year and gain an asset (RE) with rents at about 5-7% a year (plus some appreciation)? Of course, if it is a diversification move, than it is another story.
2. I don't really see a point of being retired at 35. In most cases, it does not end up well, but of course, there are exceptions.
3. Paying off the mortgage and spending cash that could gain more than mortgage (3% or even below) also sounds like a move that is typically not advisable. It is more secure this way, of course.

To conclude: nicely done, but you will need to think a bit more as to how employ the cash generated. Does UK have cap gains taxes?
If so, i hope that they are more modest than they are projected to be here soon.

EDIT: btw, check out the fatfire reddit for tips on wealth

Explanation

Your ongoing sales of BTC this calendar year seems to have been keeping the BTC prices down this calendar year.. you fuck.  hahahahahaha


I know that I like to razz you but having a plan to sell BTC in the way that you are asserting that you are selling seems that it could be a bit problematic for some folks... ...

I don't want to get in the way of any of your details too much, but let's just say that the BTC price stays flat and maybe even down to $46k until the end of the calendar year (of course the BTC price could even go lower than $46k, yet I believe that $46k is extremely low enough to make the point that I am wanting to make), so you seem to be suggesting that no matter what you are selling whatever BTC you had at the beginning of your sales that would add up to 25% no matter what before the end of the calendar year.

So in that flat or going down to $46k-ish hypothetical that I just described, we could end up finishing this  cycle in 2022 - which could end up being $100k plus and even up to $1.5million-ish per coin by the end of the cycle (even with doggie ass prices until the end of this calendar year), and in that situation, you had already sold your 25% max in accordance with your seemingly rigid plan.. so you would not be selling any more BTC for the remaining of the cycle if something like the actual upside of the cycle were to drag out into 2022?  

Part of my point is that a kind of calendar based selling of BTC seems too rigid and even potentially prejudicial, even though for sure you can do whatever you like... in terms of feeling MOAR better.. financially and psychologically.. not quite a mindrust.. but gosh rigidity can sometimes remind us of what panickers do, too.

My suggestion would be to have an allowance that would allow up to 25% (your current number) or even 20% that might be for sure for this calendar year and then another amount that would be staggered at various points up to $1.5 million, in the event that something like $1.5 million were to happen this cycle or in a kind of rapid way.  I am not even saying that $1.5 million has any kind of meaningful chance of happening, but I am saying to be prepared for potential outrageous upside scenarios, and if you structure the whole matter well, you should be better off with a kind of ongoing incrementalist strategy rather than such seeming calendar year based rigiditiy.. King daddy no is not on no schedule.. last time I checked (not that any of us can speak on behalf of king daddy).

What happens frequently when you ladder up your sales based on price rather than time, then you still might see that you still have ONLY sold an additional 5% or 10% of your stash all the way up to something like $1.5 million  (yeah for you it might be more than 10% but it surely would not be zero, right?)....

I just did a quickie look at my round about laddering up sales projections outline up to $1.5 million (my outline currently goes up to $6 million) and I see that I would have only sold about 15% of my current stash as it now stands in total all the way up to that $1.5 million-ish price, even if the BTC price were to go shooting straight up from here (of course my current BTC sell orders ONLY currently go up to $150k-ish), and when the price versus amount of sales versus value of holdings for each is plotted out like that, even with the selling of 15% of the total quantity of BTC as compared to the quantity of BTC holdings currently in possession, the total dollar value of the remaining BTC portion is still growing multiple times faster than the amount being sold, so there is no real prejudicing in any kind of way... because the value of the BTC holdings would have gone up something like 22x - even with a 15% shaving off.. It is hard to find any kind of prejudicing from that kind of a layout, and it allows for ongoing personally tailored incrementalisms to feel good financially (with options) and psychologically (coming from the development of more options).

Sure, maybe your approach already accounts for various potentially higher BTC prices that could happen in this cycle?  but your description of stopping any kinds of sales no matter what at the end of this calendar year seems to be too much caught up on time deadlines rather than really attempting to grapple with practicality for ongoingly making sure that you are good in regards to various possible subsequent BTC behaviors.. including extracting some profits in the event that BTC prices go shooting up to high levels and then does not return to those high levels for 10 years or longer or ever for that matter.  

What I am saying is that even with a relatively modest and continuing selling of BTC in incremental ways at various points up the ladder that depend on BTC price rather than time is a way preferred method, even if you may well be shaving off decent amounts this year no matter what (including your decision to shave off up to 25% no matter what this calendar year).  Accordingly, there are still ways to get extra cash at various points along the way (Up), if that were to be needed, preferred, or just prudent preparations for the future that is far from certain no matter how comfy many of us might end up finding ourselves in terms of various allocations and reallocations that we have been making along the way, too.

Ok.  enough of my getting into your business.. yet surely, we are talking about this kind of topic in a public thread, so ideas of prudence, practicality and preparations are for others too who may also be in similar situations of deciding when to shave off, how much to shave off and under what circumstances.

Oh for sure 😀 though I always thought a more accurate translation was Lots Of Trouble Usually Simple and cheap …

It certainly went wrong a lot but it was always cheap to fix, compared with my Porsche … that went wrong rarely but when it did it was always a massive bill!

Marcus is correct.

You more than likely have a short, possibly the element burned out and shorted.

If you replace those relays and fuses without finding the issue all you will get is another pile of melted relays and blown fuses.

Get someone that knows how to use a meter to shoot those lines.




Nobody fears electricity more than an electrician.



Could be a slow burn fuse as well, people will pop those in when they have an issue with fuses popping rather than finding the underlining cause.


As a side note I would just like to say that if I had a purely electrical heating system I would absolutely have a backup.

I have only had to use my wood stove a few times over the decades but when I did it was a godsend.
* I burned the kitchen table and seats once during a snow storm with friends all around the stove.

ThErE iS nO INflATioN, iTs oNlY TEmPoRarY

Explanation

Yes.... but I was hung up on your assertion of "a year at most."  When i see such a specific statement in regards to time, I read it literally as having a start date at the time of the post and an end date one year later, which would be November 23, 2022... so getting to $100k at the end of that timeline surely seems to  either be some kind of new model, some BIG variation of existing models or just sloppy in terms of did you really mean "a year at most?"

Another thing is getting to supra $100k or the alternative prediction of figuring out what is going to be the top for this cycle.   I doubt also that you would be proclaiming that $100k would be the top - even if it were to come as late as November 2022  (is that even possible?).

Personally I doubt that any kind of delay into 2022 in respect to getting to supra $100k is anything bold enough to write home about, so my quibble is your getting into the second quarter or beyond for something as mediocre as $100k - without explaining MOAR better how you may have gotten there.

Another thing you seem to be treating some of the price prediction models a wee bit loosey goosey... so surely when we talk about some kind of small deviation from calendar year 2021 but then drag way out past the end of 2021 into the end of 2022, that just seems a step way too far for me in terms of attempting to either be rigorous in thinking or to really treat our currently valid and credible models with some kind of deference for the underlying data that support them ..and that does not mean that you have to kiss any PlanB rings or lick any guru deemed butt holes (yeah I went there.... not good for opsec for any purported guru or guru wanna be to be exposing such bodily parts to us mere plebs... hahahahahaha).

Bah, smartass.    (Seriously, good find)
Good that I zoomed the picture before I accepted the bet  

You are right, A1 and A2 can be seen which are the coil contacts. On the plus side the controller will probably be fine, but on the negative side the heating element is eventually sinking way too much current and I would be a bit more concerned especially if no fuse blew.

You know what LOTUS stands for
Lots
Of
Trouble
Usually
Serious

Had an Elise myself and it had its fair share of problems too.

I'd put money those are the conducting contacts. The empty parallel set are for a double pole setup.

I wouldn't be surprised if the fuse blew in the past and someone shoved a nail in there or something. Though fuses do sometimes only protect eventually. If there's no fuse then yikes!

The original had giant worms too. The CGI is better on the new one for sure but it seems to lack some soul. Though I was never really a fan of the Lynch one, it did some interesting things. I'm currently re-reading the book and it's pretty good.

.

 I did a really good one with a 48 inch florescent bulb/tube. I replaced 3 on a 4 tube light went to do the 4th one all hot as it is easy to see the light is working. It was hot I was sweating. I had trouble fitting the 4th tube and getting it to light. So I was twisting it in and my left hand was close to the end near the socks and my right hand was close to the other socket. My hands were sweaty. I ran the power across my chest and felt it contract my heart.

Basically I paddled my chest/heart. About the worst way to shock yourself. Good electrical system in my heart or I would not be writing this as I type.  I no longer do any work on energized circuits.  Fool me once okay but not twice.

Relays fail often but that looks quite severe. I'd check for underlying issues before just replacing them.

Explanation

It looks like the coil connections show these burning/heat traces, that should not be as bad as when the conducting contacts look like that (when like this relay the pole/throw contact is rated at 30A@230V). That can happen when the coil gets too much voltage and the insulation between the coil wires burns out, hence reducing resistance and overheating until it's no more a coil but only a short with thin wires.
Though the negative side is, that power probably comes from a controller somewhere that decides when to power the furnace/heating element. It could well be that the controller itself setting those relays is damaged as well.

I assume your fuse blew from the incident when the relay burnt out like that, otherwise I would probably try to consult a professional electrician, if you just replace the relays then, things could go wrong in a much more bad way the second time, because burning wires in walls can really ruin your whole day.

Ofcourse thicker wires are always a good idea, though generally if the wiring is not too old and the fuse blew when the relay burnt out, the wiring should have enough spare capacity to not get damaged in any way. I agree with MoA here, if the wiring is not pre WWWII and the electrician who installed it is not a criminal twat and the fuse actually blew then there is no reason at all to be concerned about the wiring (at least not more than any other day).

And yeah, if you are not feeling confident changing the relays and switching the thing back on (meaning having an explanation on what went wrong in the first place), get the help of an electrician. With 230V or higher you often get only one single time to fuck things seriously up,
If you decide to go ahead anyway, do not just switch off the fuse that you think powers the furnace, measure that things have no more voltage before sticking your fingers in it. I mean it, a wrongly labelled fuse can kill you if you don't check. (i.e. Don't trust, verify!)

I have found in my life that I am pretty good in tolerating electric shocks but I got plenty of lucky occasions where some godness decided to warn me with flying sparks that I am about to touch a deadly powered contact, wire or whatever.

Be careful and good luck!

He could get one.

He also could see a few dozen YouTube videos and swap out the 3-5 wires and the relays.

It is hard to tell what's wrong since these heaters/furnaces are running a long time to get the house warm.

If it ran for 1990 to 2021.  and the gear was 100.0005% overloaded it will take years of run time and the gear will fail.

I mine a lot hundreds of units. Varied mixed gear. The gear can work fine and is loaded to %70 which should never fail due to over load.

But the voltage supplied from the street could drop to 204 or 200 volts rather than 230/240 this will stress all components and over load wires.

If he is  a 120 volt system he could have a voltage drop to 100 or 105 volts.

This will stress all parts wires relays etc.

And you get meltdown.

So if he replaces relays and alters wires from 18 gauge to 16 gauge. This would end over heating.

Of course could be some other unknown issue. So an electrical guy could be needed.

Explanation

Cool wires are always better. The cooler, the better. Superconductors like negative temperatures. But you're probably using copper. Silver is nice, but too expensive to use as wires except for special stuff like audio stuff.