I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%).
I, too, a few months back suggested that the halvings are getting less and less relevant. Of course I didn't have this insight myself - it's something I read during the 2017 bull run. I got picked by a few fellow WOers, and there was a little discussion - quite civilized actually, no flame wars. After all that, however, I'm still not sure how "relevant" the last halving is going to be.
Some seem to think this bull is over, and we won't go parabolic this time. Could be, yes. But I think we should see at least a few indicators (RSI for one) point to overbought territory before the fat lady sings.
Can you edumacate yours truly, and perhaps some others in dees here parts regarding how you might consider RSI to be relevant to dee honey badger?
Maybe you could paint some potential scenarios or something?
I don't consider RSI to be terribly relevant to the honey badger herself, but it is a decent descriptor of buyer vs. seller behavior. Such behavior could indeed be considered relevant to the least resistance price trajectory for honey badger like creatures - although they are known not to give a fuck (or a ratt's ass, as someone used to say).
I'm not proposing new models or trying to improve old ones - but I can offer a rephrasening.
Even if we don't go parabolic before this bull ends - so, no blow off top, no breathtaking 4x-5x - I think we are not done yet. If we were, we would at least see an excess of eager buyers chopping wood and putting it on the fire that inflates the balloon. So the RSI should go up - meaning too many buyers too quick - if the bull is really done with. RSI is nowhere near alartmingly high levels. So let's wait the end of this month and let's see what happens after options expiry, Thanksgiving, and Black Friday.
Since I don't really feel higher levels of being edumacated prior to your postening, I will give you an E for edumacating efforts and leave it at that.
By the way, I do accept that each 4-year fractal could end up playing out differently than previous 4-year fractals, so for sure, if we might not consider our 7-month-ish run from $10k-ish to $65k-ish to have had been too much too fast, so then our May/June/July correction that ended up adding up to 56% might have been enough of steam removal to allow for continued UPpity - and sure we mayor may not be able to get another 4-5x out of this bad boy for this particular cycle or this particular UPpity run - to the extent that 4 year fractals still exist - and surely I am of the sense that we cannot proclaim the early death of the 4-year fractal until we actually see it dead.... and sufficiently dead to be sincerely dead as pointed out by a credible coroner.
Furthermore, each of us know that there is no "must" or "have to do" in terms of where bitcoin goes in this cycle, and we have experienced similar kinds of trepidations (unknowingness) in the past in regards to how much is the price going to go UP and when is the UP going to be over. So even if we might concede that something like 16x BTC price appreciation has already happened for this cycle (from $4,200 to $69k), we could also recognize that the amount of BTC price appreciation would surely appear a dwarf as compared with our 2013 cycle that was more than 100x and our 2017 cycle that was at least 75x, so given our macro backdrop, a lot of us sense that the top of this cycle is not likely over and sure it could drag out for 1, 2 or 3 quarters beyond our expectations, and sure if some kind of long and drug out bear period were to happen between a further top then we might question what is going in terms of the actual cycles and maybe even needs to reconsider how to look at where we are at (based on where we have been) and where we might be going... Personally, I am not giving up.. and maybe the next three quarters might be criticaltm? perhaps?
@JJG
jeez...asking for a source for an extended passage in the age of google, etc. Really? With your typical OCD-like attention to details and incessant quotations?
Almost as soon as I 'declared' you a humanoid, you put me back in a "they pull me back in" situation.
People typically don't want to convince anyone that they are people by being prone to something contradictory to their displayed "ego".
Bad upgrade?
Sad.
jeez...asking for a source for an extended passage in the age of google, etc. Really? With your typical OCD-like attention to details and incessant quotations?
Almost as soon as I 'declared' you a humanoid, you put me back in a "they pull me back in" situation.
People typically don't want to convince anyone that they are people by being prone to something contradictory to their displayed "ego".
Bad upgrade?
Sad.
I am glad that you still have feelings for me. Try NOT to get too attached because even if I had not been responding to a few of your most recent weird statements, I can still appreciate that I had been on the cusp a few times......
Any experienced forum member should realize and appreciate that best practice is to cite sources, especially when in the form of text and the words could be misunderstood to be theirs (that could potentially be deemed as plagiarism if it is not just a failure/refusal to cite).
