I think that bitcoin cycles are already largely diminished, therefore the price dynamics will follow a random trajectory with a trend up, but we are not going to get an average of 200% per year anymore (maybe 50-100%).
I, too, a few months back suggested that the halvings are getting less and less relevant. Of course I didn't have this insight myself - it's something I read during the 2017 bull run. I got picked by a few fellow WOers, and there was a little discussion - quite civilized actually, no flame wars. After all that, however, I'm still not sure how "relevant" the last halving is going to be.
Some seem to think this bull is over, and we won't go parabolic this time. Could be, yes. But I think we should see at least a few indicators (RSI for one) point to overbought territory before the fat lady sings.
Can you edumacate yours truly, and perhaps some others in dees here parts regarding how you might consider RSI to be relevant to dee honey badger?
Maybe you could paint some potential scenarios or something?
Note: I understand that my asking these questions borders on the invitation for you to roll your own BTC price prediction models in spite of our already having some pretty damned convincing, credible and currently valid models - but hey if you are able to weave your own models into the already existing and credible BTC price models then the more power to you. #nohomoNote 2: my attempt to have funzies with this particular topic should not be construed as either my actually overly-weighting of seeming currently valid BTC price prediction models or to negate my acceptance that no matter what there is going to be room for anything can happen scenarios to end up actually playing out in spite of the outlines of the most convincing of BTC price models so, this friday the monthly futures will expire, the price of bitcoin will go nowhere close to planb's prediction in this month. sad-panda.gif
If the events pass like you suggest vroom, then like any good scientist, PlanB is going to have to either go back to the drawing board or stop making such definitive statements in regards to what our savior king daddy is going to do within a given timeframe.
By the way, the end of the month comes in 7 days (pretty much exactly from the time of this post of mine), so from my calculations $98k would be about a 70% BTC price appreciation from our current price of $57,600-ish. Surely bitcoin can do those levels of price appreciation in that amount of time, but most frequently king daddy will tend to have a kind of ramping up of momentum prior to being able to perform that highly in that short of a period of time.. .. so hey, I am not claiming to be any kind of short-term expert except to just express a certain amount of skepticism in respect to such an outrageous breakout that might not be accompanied by a wee bit of ramping up of momentum first.
