Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4705. (Read 26608936 times)

Initially, I was going to suggest not to spend the $50 bucks - but hey, we should be trying to be "real" about these kinds of matters, and at some point it will be just great to pull that trigger.. It's not like your only BTC, even though it has some symbolic value... but jeez.. $180k does seem like a nice target price for that $50 sale.. and decent (though not guaranteed) abilities to exercise such option in this particular cycle, rather than having to wait for another cycle.

By the way, I have had some of my own BTC portfolio management issues in the past, and I have created a new goal to attempt to at least hold onto my 0.63BTC (which is three times our current newbie entry stacking goals) through this whole cycle, even if the BTC price goes up to $180k.. so that HODL stash would be $113,400 in value at that time... (not trying to count chickens before they hatch, but great, great.. feels good man.)


Ok.  You go first.

I will watch, and if it works for you, then I will do it next time.  maybe?

but probably not..especially since I already know what actually works.. hahahahaha.


You are coming off as quasi-incoherent UnDerDoG81 and perhaps a wee bit emotional... including your reference to "charity" organizations, whatever that means?  You talking about government organizations or some organizations that might be targeted by recent SEC actions?

You are selling half your BTC stash at our new ATH, presuming that we get there?  That's strange because if we get to new ATH in coming months, that would seem more like a HODL or even a buying opportunity rather than selling opportunity, not that I am an advocate of buying BTC on the way up, but reaching a new ATH in the coming months would likely be a bullish sign - in spite your various expressed skepticisms of current macro-considerations - or even potential ongoing and increasing hostilities directed towards bitcoin.

Regarding your comment of El Salvador and crypto, hard to know what you mean.  El Salvador legalized bitcoin, not crypto, even though there are a bunch of shitcoins going into that space to leech off of bitcoin's security blanket, and yeah if there are some institutional concerns about the actions of El Salvador, then there are likely to be some scramblings of institutions and governments in terms of figuring out how to deal with the matter, if they are going to be able to realistically deal with bitcoin (or crypto for that matter) in a way that brings them some comfort in spite issues of jurisdictional arbitrage and the fact that there is not a world government, even if some governments and institutions are more imposing and influential than others (at least for the moment), and if you really believe that the various institutional and government actions are going to hamper the upside potential of bitcoin for this upcoming price rise, then sure that is possible. 

Almost every historical BTC price pump has also included various kinds of doom and gloom concerns around bitcoin while it was pumping in opposition to such overall ongoing concerns then being expressed during each past exponential price growth (blow off top, if you want to call it) period.

So, sure something in the range of our current ATH could end up being our top for this cycle,

or we might top off somewhere before $100k.

or in the range of $100k to $200k,

or in the range of $200k to $400k,

or in the range of $400k to $800k,

or in the range of $800k to $1.5mil,

or supra $1.5 mil. 

I have given my placement of odds for these various topping out scenarios in some of my past posts including considering that the top could end up stretching out as far as the 3rd quarter 2022. 

And sure, for me selling 50% of your BTC stash at our current ATH, if we get there.. seems a wee bit pessimistic and short-sighted.. but hey, you do you, and you are the ONLY one to know how much overinvested in BTC that you might be, or if you believe that you are adequately prepared for possible UPpity scenarios that go beyond our current ATH, including if you believe selling 50% of your stash would be prudent and reasonable in terms of where bitcoin is at currently in this cycle and your own psychological and financial circumstances and giving some considerations of various possible upside ranges for this particular cycle (including that we might not even make it to our already ATH within this particular cycle which is far from a non-zero chance.. perhaps even as high as 40% to 50% that we would not even make it to our already ATH this cycle.. who knows for sure?). 

In essence none of us should be putting more weight than deserved to upside BTC price scenarios, and so we do have to consider our own allocations and even that skimming off too much could have negative ramifications as well as just letting the BTC ride whether it is just a kind of skimming for this cycle or through various continued cycles in spite of possible price corrections and even premature entrance into a bear market.. and I doubt that current news is really justifying those kinds of seemingly extra-bearish conclusions as you, UnDerDoG81, seem to be making and seemed to have been historically inclined to make.. even though you sometimes have presented ur lil selfie as a strong hand, but that surely has not been my recollection of your historical contemporaneous actions/statements.

"cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance may be evolving into threats to the financial system"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-equated-toxic-pre-crisis-192241795.html

Yeah, they kind of feel that way. The only reason to rent one of those is to keep other stuff you couldn't keep at home, like back up copies of other important documents. Photocopies of stuff like passports, agreements, stuff like that, where the reason you have those backup copies is in case your own house goes down in flames. Some people resort to fireproof home safes for that purpose.

Storage units also, but those cost more even for the smallest one.

Bank boxes typically are less than $100 per year, depending on size. Jewelry you don't use ... but again, maybe better at home. I can find Sentry branded fire-safe waterproof chests with lifetime warranty on amazon.

Perhaps some people buy Bitcoin because their star signs say they would be making money and some cultures might have superstitions like lucky investing times....The moon may have an effect on human psychology, which manifests itself physically. I see your point. But it's still not going to have a physical effect on small masses like humans the same way it does with huge body masses such as the ocean....

Explanation

Don't do that. And read the fine print before you sign any agreement/contract. I was shocked to find out they in fact can't be held liable for any losses. So if the bank is robbed or in case of some inside job (keys stolen/copied by an employee) you're getting 0 (well possibly some fraction of your possessions if they're insured and you keep the receipts or some other proof of ownership. Otherwise you're screwed.  

So yes, if the 2017 date for your cousin shitcoinHoDL is early 2017 (which I would presume based on your 30x projection, which would be $42k/30 = $1,400 - and BTC prices would have been around $1,400 in early 2017), then 8.5x for DCA investing would be better than 3x for trading whether shitcoins or otherwise trading does not tend to be able to overall beat DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.  One aspect of presuming an ability to lump sum invest is to have the money available at the time that you first get in, but still many of us, remain concern about the reality that many normies do not necessarily have lump sums available at any given time and  also they can bolster their BTC allocation by using their future cashflows (while not necessarily wanting to take the risk of leveraging future cashflows in advance to lumpsum based on credit or something like that).  

For sure, many of us can also make mistakes along the way, so even if we do comparatively measure our actual returns with what would have been DCA returns, we might not want to kick ourselves too much if we underperform those returns or even to give our lil selfies too much credit merely because we may have been able to outperform the DCA returns.

One irony of my own particular situation is that I have happened to track the DCA returns pretty damned well (which would currently be within a ballpark of 52x profits), even though I had several pretty BIG losses due to dealing with exchanges, some transactions that I made with dishonest people who reneged on their end, a sim port attack and perhaps some other mistakes that I made.  I do consider that the averaging out of my various "mistakes" along the way happen to be less bad based on the decent amount of front-loading that I had done (which suggests some emphasis on lump sum rather than pure DCA) and also some of the buying on dips that I have done, which was largely related to my attempts at portfolio and risk management rather than striving to stack more sats, even though side benefits of stacking more sats did come through my employment of those kinds of risk management techniques - even if they might have some of their own structural flaws.  I consider whatever experimenting that I did with shitcoins and also some of my attempts at spontaneous trading of BTC that resulted in emotion-based mistakes to have had pretty damned minimal effects on lessening the value of my BTC holdings in the whole scheme of things.

I guess part of my point remains that if a guy figures out his own cashflow and various other personal financial and psychological circumstances, then he should be able to come pretty damned close to at least mirroring the performance of a DCA strategy - even if he might have been able to beat such strategy by investing early and just sitting on it, but I personally advocate a more active and ongoing strategy of continuing to buy BTC along the way rather than just lump sum investing which would also potentially include buying on dips (besides the core ongoing DCA strategy) and to stay involved to the extent that your time, skills and abilities permit.  And, sure of course, if you have either overallocated or reached fuck you status or something close to fuck you status, then there might not be as much of a need to continue with DCA, so at that point the strategy might just end up involving buying on dips and even eliminate the lump sum investing too.. except to the extent that some funds might merely be in reserve to buy on dips.

Regarding your cousin shitcoinHoDL's consideration that any of the bcash's are still a thing (whether talking about BCH or the quasi-more-delusional BSV) are any kind of meaningful thing shows that he may well be way too delusional to deal with, and maybe even to some extent, I don't even believe what I am saying here because I have several delusional twat relatives who hang onto the idea of Dogecoin going to either $.70 or even to $1 or more.. and some other dumb shit like Cardano, and I am not really going to completely give up on them, even if I might get annoyed as fuck when I am talking with them and I just need to take a break sometimes and just let matters play out for a couple more years or however long it might take to possibly revisit the matter - except to the extent that sometimes you may intend to NOT talk with these seemingly delusional twats (happen to be relatives) for a couple of years, but you know that you have pretty decent chances of running into them at various family gatherings.. and surely they might bring up the topic, even if you believe that it might be better to NOT talk about such topic.. but sometimes the topic might just end up coming up in spite your wishes, and you might not even be averse to discussing some of the matters again, even if you believe the relative is pretty far gone in their various presumptions and their analysis of factors that you conclude to be ONLY betting on upside without adequately accounting for downside - which yeah is a whole hell of a lot of gambling that some people seem unable to NOT do, even if they seem to know better, their actions kind of speak for themselves.

LOL @ Extreme Fear.

Nap time for me. Got a stupid early start to the day... Ugh...

Explanation

TIL gravity influences the price UP and cheap window shades send the price DOWN

got it

"So, according to the dates offered by ancient historians, it took 1,229 years to build Rome"

That's what is worrying me as well. If there will be really a new ATH in the next months, I will exit with 50% of my holdings. People still believe politicians and these fake "charity" organizations are their friends. I did not expect they come so early after crypto. But I guess El Salvador amped things up. I would not wonder if El Salvador did that on purpose to get the stone rolling.

Explanation

Crap, I just lost my bitcoin hidden in one of those buildings... Forget boating accidents, mine got blown away!

 Yes, I collaborated with proudhon on this one and while we agree on magnitude, we disagree on direction.

Trust the science!

Don't worry, the Chinese are solving the problem with Evergrande in the best possible way

Explanation