You see, #hodl is in fact a lifestyle.
You either just fit in, adapt to it, or you stay out.
Now guess what your nocoiner friends/collegues/relatives are like...
Sorry to say that, but you really tried to help them, they didn't listen. Now that they are #HFSP, they have no chance but continue watching from the sideline in apathy.
That comes off as an improper framework.
You seem to be just reiterating the part that almost all of them believe, which is largely:
"bitcoin is like a stock and if it pumps, it can ONLY pump so much, so since bitcoin has already pumped 10x, 1,000x and 10,000x - depending on when beginning the base measurement - it is not capable of pumping more; therefore, I am too late."
That's not true. They are not too late.
It is true that bitcoin has pumped
It is true that bitcoin has pumped a lot
It is true that it would have been better getting in earlier
It is NOT true that bitcoin does not remain a great investment with a lot more upside potential
It is NOT true that nocoiners are too late
Surely, we can say HFSP (have fun staying poor) but some of those folks will still end up coming around and can still come around - even if BTC pumps another 1,000x from here (that would be $46.6 million per coin), the investment thesis for bitcoin will not disappear, even if it costs more per unit to get it.. whether merely satoshi's can be afforded that time, and our 0.21BTC or our 0.63BTC collections are looking quite sweet at those BTC price levels.
Actually, some people will come around by just creating some kind of account and starting to invest $10 per week... but yes.. it is a whole hell of a lot of work, just to get them to carry out what (to us) seems to be the bare bones basics.
If you want to change your life, you have to act. Waiting is a trap. Especially in regards to get into Bitcoin long term.
Exactly.. that's why some will likely act later.. they are not trapped forever in HFSP.. even though relatively speaking they are going to likely end up being less richie.. but whatever.. we can ONLY do so much to help these normie peeps.. If they are not ready.. they are not ready.. I am not going to walk them through every single step.. especially if they are making too much work for me out of the project. Of course, if they are showing interest.. and taking a wee bit of a humble pill, then yes, I will help them to set up an account or point them in a direction where they can learn more or even talk through a few of the matters that they might not want to read. but they learn by talking through the matter, but they have to take some actions rather than my having to drag them through each step... for example.. work on sending me a BTC address and then I can send you .00021BTC or something like that.. do something... do something... act excited about the info.. that's a start.
I'm not in the situation to reply to all of this in detail, but i wrote in a way that kind of overexagerrated the apathy part.
Now, i do think some of them will change (in figures of the 20/80 rule). Some problem with groups (co-workers) is, they tend to internally agree and sympathize, so i don't expect the co-workers are able to change their common narratives on Bitcoin.
I think it works more like so: Co-worker A hears from more friends or relatives over time that they discovered, understood and had success with Bitcoin (or "crypto").
He then starts off with a little set-and-forget buy, switches to lump-sum or DCA later, makes the same mistakes most newbies made and becomes a #hodler.
When he is successful and educated enough, he will probably slip into AlcoHODL's role and talk about in the co-worker circle.
It really gets on like in a pyramid scheme, but we know that this comparison/term is bullshit, when it comes to Bitcoin, but at least can push more people to FOMO-in, which is the way PS's work. Atomic social systems, if you know what i mean...
I don't disagree with anything that you are saying OOM.. just I am not sure why you really even need to go down the pyramid scheme analogy path - because there are some built-in appropriatenesses in using that kind of a description of how people might become more convinced about bitcoin.
For sure, there is going to be some blind-word of mouth aspects regarding bitcoin's continued and ongoing adoption - and sure that word of mouth component coupled with the recognition of past profits gets some folks to either blindly go into bitcoin or to go in with those kinds of superficial ideas about helping the pump.
There may well even be a whole hell of a lot of us in this thread who do not really understand bitcoin very well and we are just here because of the NGU (number go up) technology, and I am not even proclaiming that everyone necessarily needs to understand bitcoin beyond the NGU aspects of it.
For sure, it is not even uncommon for a large number of folks to come into bitcoin, and really to know nothing beyond looking at the charts or some other superficial assessment. I am not really proclaiming my lil selfie to be very much of an exception to the rule except that I was already coming to bitcoin in late 2013 while looking for a dollar hedge and a gold replacement..... but even if I might have had one aspect of what I was looking for that caused aspects of bitcoin to resonate with me, I had continuously been an advocate of continuing to study and to attempt to learn as I went.. in terms of trying to get better understandings of what bitcoin was and part of my attraction to participating regularly in this forum/thread - once I was referred to it.
I do appreciate how there could be various kinds of group think that could end up going from negative to positive and therefore cause a group of associated individuals, such as coworkers to transition and then ending up transitioning based on superficial (and perhaps even nonsense - get rich quick ideas that may or may not end up playing out to their favor), and sure of course, sometimes it might not even matter so much how some individuals get into something like bitcoin because there are some pretty damned strong fundamentals that are likely going to help to gravitate some of the earlier ignorant entrance to begin to recognize and appreciate Gresham's law type principles.. even if they might not be able to articulate that is exactly the sense that they are getting in regards to spending other monies prior to touching their bitcoin.. and then the more and more those Gresham's law principles become known within their consciousness and they might even state them to their co-workers, peers, friends and relatives, - causing some of the Gresham law-type principles to likely also become somewhat contagious too.. even if some of the folks cannot articulate exactly why they are choosing to spend their BTC last (amongst their various spending options) .. and maybe even figuring out ways to NOT spend their BTC until they have exhausted all their other spending options first.
The "pyramid scheme" was an attempt to raise understanding WHY nocoiners still see Bitcoin as such, while the actual happenings (history) of Bitcoin show that it's not really the case.
People tend to simplify (as do i in my argumentation more often than not). It's easier for them to remember the pyramid scheme narrative than educate themselves in Bitcoin, economy and sound money principles. Bringing in the "pyramd scheme argument" was a perfect move and the narrative grew successfully.
Now it's harder to get followers of the "pyramid scheme conspiracy" educated. A (temporary) win for the "fiat society", because people tend to stay with simple explanations and affirmations. Most people do hard to change their beliefs. Give a simple explanation for a complex question (on a complex subject) and the most dumbest guy/gal will "understand".
That is an important factor of AlcoHODL's collegues and relatives NOT really understanding Bitcoin, because they think they already do.
Second biggest factor: Trust.
Humans trust information more, the closer the relation is to the informer. We don't want to be alone, we don't want to decide alone, so we take over narratives from people we look up to, as well as from people we relate to on the "same height of sight" (as we tend to say in my country). While people like us (WO's) are likely seen as freaks by normie nocoiners, they tend to keep trust to information from other normie nocoiners, which form a bigger group they feel related to, while we may seem like mavericks.
In the background it's even more complicated, just wanted to highlight the simple aspects that stand out more.
To keep it short: Peeps either doing something or not, they are basically driven by fear or love. They fear (refuse) things they don't know, they love (accept) things they do know.
Strangely, my attention was always drawn to the unknown (which provided me fantastic experiences in the past and present, by the way).
EDIT: Fuck, missed to break CB triplet by a minute :/
