Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4754. (Read 26609929 times)

Shill bidding at its finest, this is what those so-called investors do not understand, if I have a dollar and I were to exchange it with another person then we can still buy the same amount of goods regardless of the state of that dollar, with the only exception of those dollars that have some uniqueness to them which give them additional value, this is what we call fungibility and it is critical for any form of money, bitcoin included.

Non-fungible assets like comic books, works of art, wine or NFTs are not really interchangeable and each little detail counts towards their value, but this means their market is way smaller and manipulating it is easier, in fact right now a bubble is forming on vintage video games as well with some games selling for more than a million dollars, but it seems that everything is a scam, similar to what we are seeing in this market with NFTs.

Well, get your ass out of bed and update your WO communications into proper format, soldier!!!!!!!


 


I can hardly understand the laxness in these here parts in recent times (not like the good ole days).. and even defiance for that matter.. 

Maybe our being stuck in 5 digits for so long is contributing to such falterings?  I am fairly confident that Bitcoin (and NGU technology) fixes this.


Fair enough.  $46,800 as I type (and according to CB), so 10x-ish would be $468,000-ish

Another way of saying that is another 10x is possible for what seems to be the remainder of this cycle - which could be 4-12 months remaining (perhaps) or the 10x from here could come at the beginning of the next cycle.. presuming that we are still in cycles.. so in that regard, two to three years from now.. we could be starting the bullish part of the next cycle.



Seeming to be erroring quite a bit on the bearish side, Biodom... no?  Let's put 100x at $4,680,000 based on approximate current prices.

Think about the 2013 price peak, we had more than a 100x price appreciation for that cycle from below $10 to $1,163 in less than a year..

Think about the 2017 price peak, we had around 78x price appreciation from the 2015 base of $250-ish to
$19,666.

Think about our so far BTC price performance of this cycle.. so far.. from a base of about $4,200 in April 2019 to $64,895, so far... that is so far a price increase of around 15.5x.. but let's say that something like another  somewhat conservative price appreciation of 6x from here causes this peak to be about $280k.. (so that would be nearly 67x for the whole cycle)...

So then if we speculate that after our BTC price peak, we could end up having a correction and base jumping off price that brings us back into the $60k territory.. so surely it could be a stretch to get $4.68million from our next 4 year cycle (that would be 78x), but would it be a stretch to consider 2 cycles.. rather than your thinking about 2.5 cycles to 3 or 4 cycles?  Sure.. you could end up being correct in regards to the shrinking exponential price jumps that are going to be likely to play out in our future cycles. even going out as far as 4 cycles.  So perhaps, I am not disagreeing with you as much as I thought, even though I was considering your 100x from here in 10-15 years to be a wee bit on the bearish side.



Stocks do come off as inept comparisons to bitcoin, even though I understand that people make those kinds of comparisons that might show that not only is it possible, but bitcoin is potentially more bullish than a stock, too.

47 is back 

Explanation

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying OOM.. just I am not sure why you really even need to go down the pyramid scheme analogy path - because there are some built-in appropriatenesses in using that kind of a description of how people might become more convinced about bitcoin.

For sure, there is going to be some blind-word of mouth aspects regarding bitcoin's continued and ongoing adoption - and sure that word of mouth component coupled with the recognition of past profits gets some folks to either blindly go into bitcoin or to go in with those kinds of superficial ideas about helping the pump.

There may well even be a whole hell of a lot of us in this thread who do not really understand bitcoin very well and we are just here because of the NGU (number go up) technology, and I am not even proclaiming that everyone necessarily needs to understand bitcoin beyond the NGU aspects of it.

For sure, it is not even uncommon for a large number of folks to come into bitcoin, and really to know nothing beyond looking at the charts or some other superficial assessment.  I am not really proclaiming my lil selfie to be very much of an exception to the rule except that I was already coming to bitcoin in late 2013 while looking for a dollar hedge and a gold replacement..... but even if I might have had one aspect of what I was looking for that caused aspects of bitcoin to resonate with me, I had continuously been an advocate of continuing to study and to attempt to learn as I went.. in terms of trying to get better understandings of what bitcoin was and part of my attraction to participating regularly in this forum/thread - once I was referred to it.

I do appreciate how there could be various kinds of group think that could end up going from negative to positive and therefore cause a group of associated individuals, such as coworkers to transition and then ending up transitioning based on superficial (and perhaps even nonsense - get rich quick ideas that may or may not end up playing out to their favor), and sure of course, sometimes it might not even matter so much how some individuals get into something like bitcoin because there are some pretty damned strong fundamentals that are likely going to help to gravitate some of the earlier ignorant entrance to begin to recognize and appreciate Gresham's law type principles.. even if they might not be able to articulate that is exactly the sense that they are getting in regards to spending other monies prior to touching their bitcoin.. and then the more and more those Gresham's law principles become known within their consciousness and they might even state them to their co-workers, peers, friends and relatives, - causing some of the Gresham law-type principles to likely also become somewhat contagious too.. even if some of the folks cannot articulate exactly why they are choosing to spend their BTC last (amongst their various spending options) .. and maybe even figuring out ways to NOT spend their BTC until they have exhausted all their other spending options first.


I will proclaim that your seeming ongoing inclination to consider bitcoin prices in terms of miner input costs seem to be putting limits on your own appreciation that bitcoin gives few if any shits about how much your lil miners cost.

I am not proclaiming such costs to be totally irrelevant to the various ups and downs of BTC's price movements - even though I would proclaim the more important aspects of bitcoin is to take into account the various BTC price models - and the mining component within the various models remains a relatively small part (even though it is a part - it does not wag the dog in any kind of meaningful way, except on the margins, at best).  if I need to re-iterate the currently valid BTC price prediction models or go into detail, let me know.. and surely it would be interesting if some of you regulars in this thread (including uie-pooie, phillip) attempt to account for how much of your little price theory - whether short term, medium term or long term might need to at least attempt to account for the various seemingly currently valid BTC price prediction models - rather than just spouting out something that seems to be either completely detached or giving way too much (or too little for that matter) to the other various components in the currently valid BTC price prediction models.

For bitcoin:
10X is attainable within relatively short time period (maybe 4 years or earlier as a spike)
100X is attainable over 10-15 years.

Overall, bitcoin looks like AAPL in Sep 2016 (coming off a peak and inching toward ATH).
AAPL did 5X the next 5 years. We could do much better.

This all true.

We can lead horses to water, but we can't make them drink at the fountain of Bitcoin.

They would rather drink at the shitcoin fountains, get poisoned, and die. Because greed and ignorance.

I am not disagreeing with anything that you are saying here, philip.. and I had heard (perhaps from a little birdie?) that some of the China miners are turning their gear back on, too.. sure maybe somewhat covertly or somewhat after some of the official pressure had died down a wee bit... but still some of the Chinese miners are coming back online.. whether they are official or have (wink and a nod) permission or not.


Fair enough.. You seem to have some decent spidey senses on some of these matters.. for sure...

Explanation

The dude tired AF….

HODLsleep highly recommended.

Have a good HODL friends.









Edit… or whiteout HIGHLY, then it would be a HAIKU

Now, I liked your "back of the envelope" calculations, I had to set up a proper Google Spreadsheet.
Of course, my results are a little bit different, but I might have messed some details:

How many "Valstagna Windows" equate to the most recent difficulty update?
Check here.

These steady 45-47 numbers are working along with gentle diff raises .

I feel there is a controlled dampening of price due to lack of chips.

Explanation

update:

proof of sh*tcoins, Solana is down, restart initiated 

... one of the reasons we love king Daddy! 

Part of the potential problems with some of the bcash shills is going to be the extent to which they might hedge or even sufficiently hedge - because at some point aspects of their investment are going to look very stupid, and  when rubber hits the road there could be considerable questions whether there was a sufficient balance in the portfolio to even wind down from having both had taken such a ludicrous position and then even smart people might end up taking one gamble upon another in considering that they have to "make up for" earlier mistakes that they made.

Surely. jbreher had seemed to have been a pretty decently prudent investor, but some of his stances on BSV could have ended up leading him into precarious finances and psychology.. so maybe at some point, unwinding some of his positions might have caused him to conclude to lessen his forum participation - in the vent that there might not have been other matters going on in terms of all of our limitations in our meat wagon - whether we want to believe it or not. 

Personally, I would prefer to attempt to make some kind of an announcement if my meat wagon might be failing me too much to be able to continue to participate herein.. but many of us.. including your truly frequently will consider that even if we are having some health related issues, the passage of time might allow us to improve in our abilities to be able to get back to where we kind of were before.. so sure hopefully, jbreher's health is decently well.. but I also know that he was (not really meaning to speak of him in the past tense.. even though he has not been posting here) no spring chicken.


FTFY


The tears part tends to be good for all of us HODLers (not talking royal, here.. #nohomo).. even if dippenings do tend to be a wee bit painful while going through with them.. though I am imagining the dippenings to be less and less painful with the passage of time - especially the longer into BTC, even if the relatively large scale dips are likely to continue for several more cycles.. that's my sense.

Explanation

I'm not in the situation to reply to all of this in detail, but i wrote in a way that kind of overexagerrated the apathy part.
Now, i do think some of them will change (in figures of the 20/80 rule). Some problem with groups (co-workers) is, they tend to internally agree and sympathize, so i don't expect the co-workers are able to change their common narratives on Bitcoin.
I think it works more like so: Co-worker A hears from more friends or relatives over time that they discovered, understood and had success with Bitcoin (or "crypto").
He then starts off with a little set-and-forget buy, switches to lump-sum or DCA later, makes the same mistakes most newbies made and becomes a #hodler.
When he is successful and educated enough, he will probably slip into AlcoHODL's role and talk about in the co-worker circle.
It really gets on like in a pyramid scheme, but we know that this comparison/term is bullshit, when it comes to Bitcoin, but at least can push more people to FOMO-in, which is the way PS's work. Atomic social systems, if you know what i mean...