Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 49. (Read 26502799 times)

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Most likely the person has many wallets and sold from some other wallets before.
In other words-no big deal.

My guess: whoever moved this owns a lot more and sold some before. Never sell everything.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

ORIGINAL POST:
Transaction doesn't exist! The FUD begins!

CORRECTED POST:
ALERT: Transaction DOES EXIST!

https://mempool.space/tx/983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae

For some reason it didn't appear on mempool.space.. and i noticed there wasn't any comments about it not existing... So i queried my Bitcoin Node and there is was confirmed!

bitcoin-cli getrawtransaction 983311045cf0bbf09b9469ed9699585194285494d048a96058e9dd444b33b7ae
020000007507f03266a3c08263fb15dd7b17ece8a87756353519a66d01....68ed5d92f560bf0f9 32302c5eea0287b8470d00

Never Trust, Always Verify

I thought that Wiwo was referring to the bloodbath on the way up from $69k to $93k, and he was kind of suggesting that the bloodbath might be over or needing a break, which I have my doubts about whether that is really a reasonable presumption.


Even though you seem to believe that you are giving somewhat conservative selling scenarios, you do seem to continuously consider the cash that you can get out of your BTC at various points, and so surely you end up employing even more cash focused harvesting in your own ongoing BTC management strategies, and you end up missing out on loads and loads of compounding value of the BTC over the years.

In other words, way small profits can come out of the BTC in order that over several years, the value that is held in BTC compound way more as compared with if you are continuously overly harvesting various profits and claiming that you are hanging onto sufficient BTC when you aren't. 

It seems to me that if guys consider ways of being way more conservative in their harvesting of dollar profits out of their BTC (perhaps even including you right now), they likely have way better odds of having way more BTC (and compounded profits) to work with later down the road after a cycle or two rather than just thinking year by year and some of the dumbass tax-focused ideas in short terms.


Sometimes (or perhaps frequently in bitcoin) guys need to consider value in terms of compounding rather than simple valuations, and so sometimes with our overall BTC holdings, we have to let some time run and perhaps a halving or  two or something like that rather than fucking around with one or two calendar years or trying to play short-term BTC waves.. so maybe even a guy who spends a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin might want to allow one more cycle to just sit on his investment and largely let it compound, before he starts to fuck around very much with employing various selling formulas.

I am actually not really opposed too much to selling formulas, even if they are employed fairly early on in a guy's bitcoin journey, yet the earlier days of fucking around with selling should largely be token amounts and mostly emphasizing holding overwhelmingly large portions of the BTC.. and.. then perhaps later on after another cycle or so, then maybe a guy can start to become more adventurous with selling larger portions of his BTC stash. to the extent that he even needs to.. since maybe he is able to live well within his budget (or even a much higher standard budget) by spending only 2% to 5% of his stash per year). 


If we have not over invested in bitcoin^**, then we should either be able to tolerate down draws in bitcoin or we just buy more BTC during such down draws.... quite a bit of volatility is already known and inevitable in bitcoin and there are ways to already set ourselves up in advance so that we are financially and psychologically prepared for various down draws, even extreme ones.

**By the way, over invested and over accumulating are different concepts... it is possible to overaccumulate but still not be over invested.


We already know that bitcoin makes BIG moves, and it just seems a bit overly anxious to be wanting to take big chunks of profits out of bitcoin merely because it made a 4x-ish move.

In the end, guys can do what they want, yet it seems to me that there is a time element to long term investing which likely involves not fucking around trying to play waves, but hey whatever guys are going to do what they are going to do.. and surely if a guy had been investing into bitcoin for 4-ish years and continuously investing, then he might have various cost basis in his BTC, and he still has 4-10 years timeline from his latest buys, so I see no reason to get all worked up about wanting to sell and/or take profits... even if a guy has just gotten through most of his accumulation stage... because in those cases, he still is going to likely have purchases that were even made in the last year or two.

And, sure whatever, guys can do what they like, yet when they are playing around trying to time waves, they likely are undermining their own situation and also taking away a lot of the historical compounding power of bitcoin that likely is not going to be ending anytime soon, even if the levels of compounding of BTC are likely not going to be as extreme as they had been in the earliest of years, yet none of us can turn back the clocks either, so we have to work with what we got and whatever bitcoin we were able to accumulate at various price levels during our BTC accumulation journey.


You have not learned, yet, that bitcoin is not a shitcoin?  Holy shit Philip.  You been here more than 12 years and you don't know nuttin?

 


You are not being totally unreasonable, but there still is a time element and there is also a size element, so it seems to be me that you are tending to sell way too much too soon in small timelines.. but whatever, hopefully guys do not get overly anxious in regards to how they manage their BTC holdings whether they are still building them or maybe they are maintaining them.. and even when they get into liquidation, they should be at a state that they can just employ relatively modest withdrawal strategies and spend from their other sources of income prior to spending their bitcoin...but yeah surely bitcoin does allow for a stepping up of living standards especially if it is allowed to compound for a while.


I know someone who did this against my advice around $1,500 in 2017, and sure the person still had several coins and was taking profits several times and at various price points, and there surely are ways to do it and to overly withdraw and still end up with decent amounts of BTC, and bitcoin can be fairly forgiving in some of those kinds of cases, yet sometimes the overwithdrawal does end up catching up to the person.. which ended up being the case with such person that I know.. there is only so much that any of us can do to help a person from themselves.


Exactly. .that is another problem.. since if you followed the rule of investing no more than you can afford to lose, then why the fuck you so worried about getting your principle out? 

It seems to me that there should be other ways of managing those kinds of concerns about your principle being locked up. 

From my own experiences, after a while your BTC stash becomes so many magnitudes larger than your initial investment that it almost becomes like pocket change to take it out.. at some later point..


Exactly.. when you got in and you have been buying BTC nearly like a degenerate and locking in your BTC costs, you already know that you are investing within your budget, so the mere fact that your holdings are 3x or 4x up seems like pretty dumbass inabilities to defer gratification and attempts to play the wave rather than just sticking with your original plan and letting it ride another cycle or so.

Yeah, of course people can do whatever they like and even dumb shit, and I am glad that you are not letting Philip's short term scaredness detouring you from the value of staying the course...which sure many of us get nervous and it can take a decently long time for our BTC holdings to really blossom... and it is not guaranteed to blossom either, so that is why when we were investing, we were not investing with money that we either needed or that we could not afford to lose in terms of going down to zero if that might end up happening.


Even though any asset can go to zero, including bitcoin, comparing what you should do in regards to shitcoins versus what you should do in regards to your bitcoin seem like quite different kinds of fundamentals and there should be some attempts to understand bitcoin fairly well for anyone who has already been in bitcoin for several years to able to figure out that bitcoin is not the same as shitcoins and the reason we invest confidently in bitcoin over long periods might relate to that we are not able to invest confidently in any shitcoins... but some folks seem to continue to mix and convolute bitcoin and shitcoin investment thesis, which truly seems to be a sign of muddled thinking.

MSTR is at 2.84X NAV.
Wow...MSaylor keeps convincing people to give him money (in form of a stock premium ) to buy more and more bitcoin. I wonder when this gravy train would slow down.
Bought a very small MSTZ position today. Will use it as a "sensor" for MSTR "mania".
If premium would start collapsing-then i would buy more as a hedge.
Bitcoin has to triple in a short order to justify current MSTR price.
Not selling btc, though.
EDIT: two-three old s-t coins are in the lead in the last few days....mamma mia!
I feel that it is OK to have 1% in those "bastards"
To me they are cash sources...instead of btc, which is precious.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

sounds unlikely...maybe just want to buy a mansion plus a big yacht 

Yep.. it can be quite difficult to know whether we had a true step-up from $69k-ish to $89k-ish until we get to see it play out and if the step up can be sustained, even though we know that there can be extended periods in which the BTC price is being held down way longer than it should be or can be (like trying to hold a beachball under water and various waves are coming in).. We have seen these kinds of step-ups in bitcoin plenty of times, and even though we can kind of attempt to infer that buying support is there, we really cannot know until the ups and downs get tested out.... and yeah, we've been talking about "supply shock" for years, and personally, I think that there is some kind of truth to supply shock ideas, yet at the same time, many times we wonder with a bit of awe:  "why aren't the corn prices going up?" 

So yeah, we also likely know that there are a variety of ways that the BTC supply can also be inflated, yet with the unique nature of the cornz, some of the manipulators can really end up on the wrong side of a trade if they try to prolong their attempts to overly inflate the BTC supply.. and yeah, a lot of those fucktwats are really good at such manipulations, yet at the same time, even some of them likely realize that there is ONLY so much bailout that they are going to be able to get if they end up overly blowing up their lil selfies due to not having anywhere close to the supply of corn they claim to have.


Does it make you scared? 

Hahahahahaha

I tried to link to the actual transaction, but I was not able to do it... so if anyone has a link that would be great.. probably helpful to other guys here too.

It is interesting to see so many old coins moving, and sometimes it can be a bit funny or strange to see the coins moving now, and personally if I were to hold such coins, I may well would have moved them earlier, just to make sure that I could still move them, but surely some of the older guys might not be worried about whether they can move the coins... . and then sometimes the coins could be split up in order to be put in some more comfortable sized amounts.

The transaction fee is a bit strange, but I am imagining that the transaction fee is so high since at minimum the total amount might be contained in 40 UTXOs?  Even though I am not really sure about that either - that is 2,000 BTC in the wallet / 50 per UTXO.  Admittedly, I am still not very knowledgable about some of these kinds of basic matters in regards to how older UTXOs were treated or were they able to be combined so there would have had only been 1 UTXO rather than a minimum of 40 in this particular case if we are presuming that the amount came straight from mining rewards from back then.


If you think about it, even with all of your lovely math, you said that you were losing on longs, so if you are proclaiming that your profits would be in BTC rather than in dollars, then truly if your BTC is going up, then you should be making profits... at least in the long run, and especially if you are not putting additional capital in, yet your BTC are continuing to go up, then you cannot be losing money, right?

When I got to my accumulation goal, which was something like 0.21 BTC (in order to be able to relate to newbies), so then when I got to 3x my accumulation goal of 0.63 BTC and above, then at that point I might try to presume that I am going to be able to stay above the 0.63BTC and to set goals around trying to stay above the 0.63 BTC and so my BTC never falls below that.  The goal may well change based on how the valuation changes, yet we are then valuating based on 200-WMA, then the value is continuously going up so then we might be able to make various sustainable withdrawal plans based on that, whether they are price based and/or time based... but yeah, there is a particular trick to reaching and exceeding our accumulation amount, but then being able to continue to withdraw from that amount with the dollar value presumptively going up faster than the withdrawal rate (including accounting for the debasement of the dollar).

So the ideas around building up your BTC stash are different from figuring out what to do once achieving and/or exceeding such goals, and surely I attempt to continuously talk with guys about building up their BTC stash, since an overwhelming majority of guys are still building their BTC stash, so your ideas of trading would not be off topic for me, and I frequently suggest that trading is not a good way to build up your BTC stash as you seem to suggest that trading can be good to build up your BTC stash, but even though you come out with various kinds of decently good sounding math, you still said that you really don't do too much of your trading stuff since you were finding that you were not really building up your BTC from those kinds of practices.

Of course, we likely realize that if you are mostly long leveraging bitcoin through those practices, yet most of bitcoins overall price movement is likely down, and then we get a lot fewer shorter periods of UP in which any of the shorts get busted the fuck out of their position over and over and over, which are fun times in bitcoin, even though way fewer days per year in bitcoin are recking shorts as compared to the number of days recking longs.. and at the same time, you better fucking be in bitcoin on the days that it unexpectedly does some kind of a step up.   

Anyhow, I think that part of my point is that once any of us reaches our accumulation (and really more than accumulation) level then we are likely more free to start to sell the extra that we got, but still I am not really talking about trading or further accumulation at that point, even though surely sometimes we can still end up maintaining our holdings by selling on the way up and buying on the way down, but not in order to accumulate more bitcoin, even though sometimes there can be a side effect of ending up getting more bitcoin when the BTC price dips.  In the overall scheme of things, prior to reaching overaccumulation status, I would not be suggesting those who have not reached such status to accumulate bitcoin through anything other than ongoing persistent and consistent buying..and surely not selling any coin until they have figured out that they have reached over accumulation status..

I get it, I understand risk mgmt, essentially your taking out what you put in. Everyone's risk profile is different tho, and they probably have different investments and sources of income and are managing those risks across lots of things. The bit that gets me tho with BTC is when you take out the initial investment your losing some of your compounding value. BTC timeline isn't that long but say we go back to the early days until now, that 30% reduction in your compounding value of buy say in 2009 is astronomical with BTC priced in @ 85k today vs the risk of losing that 100% of your initial investment should everything go to zero/

I honestly anticipated this issue(from past investing experience), and only invested what I would be ok with losing forever. It would suck to lose it but the risk/reward is much better than the hedge play to recoup on initial investment in my circumstances.

I under "this guys" circumstances, risk profile etc might be different and there is justification to doing what you think is best. But seriosly did you lose the 25k?

I do not believe that this person deliberately hodled for long. I can hardly imagine anyone being so strong to resist the temptation to move even a single satoshi, after witnessing such immense price swings over the years.

More likely, he lost access all this time and only recently managed to recover it. He must have absolutely shit his pants with joy.

Legend.
True Legend diamond hand.
Not moving my coins over such a long interval would make me nervous.
I think it is safe to move it occasionally, enabling segwit, consolidating UTXO, and doing privacy optimisations.

you have zero concept of risk magement.

the 10 to 9 coin move means zero risk of a loss and retain profit.

while 9 coins can still grow.

It also mean you can have  some enjoyment of your earning.

A lot depends on age and bloodbath avoidance.

which is the original post I quoted.

You are simply advocating 100% all in at risk of it all while I am advocating taking out 10% and ending the risk of no profit.

My way no matter what a profit was turned your way you simply are asking to be a victim of the blood bath

when you do not have to be.

I am happy you feel that way.


_______________________________________________________________________________ ______
But I watched a guy hold 500,000 shit coins that cost him 1,000 dollars  turn into 350,000 dollars and then fall to 30,000 dollars .

So my response is if he shaved off 50,000 coins at 35,000 usd he could laugh when the crash happened.

And in fact purchase back the 50,000 he shaved off.

All in advocacy means you just hodl and at some point selling 1 or 5 or 10%  makes some sense.

you still hodl the 90 or 95 or 99 percent you did not sell.

Okie might be missing something here but wouldn't "this guy" have 0.7 BTC + what ever he invested back in 25k + 2k.

Did "this guy" lose the 25k he put back in?


If "this guy" lost it, you would have been better off holding and the 1BTC would be worth 85k(based on your .7=60k math).

Verbal diarrhea arghhhh!

One the YT comments tho: " My condolences to the jury pool members who will undoubtably be forced to watch this video over and over again"

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Well take this guy I know he is  in at around 25k



Simple math. Take the case of " this guy "

He buys 1 btc at  the average of 25k from Nov 2022 to fall of 2023 it became  became 93k.

So Sell off .3 coins get 27k

 all cap gains is negated by dumping  mined coins in Oct 2022 and having a 51k loss carryover. so the entire

27k sale "this guy" keeps.

This means "this guy" has  27k cash. This guy invested 25k cash back in 2022 and " this guy"  still has .7 coins

If it all zeros out 'this guy"  is 2 grand ahead. So bloodbath in terms of BTC crash can't happen to "this guy"

and at the moment "this guy" has .7 coins worth about 60k along with 27k. And he had 25k in nov 2022

There won't be a blood bath for him in BTC.


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Also many on this thread have 10 or more coins (not me) at under 20k invested. Ie 20k became 930k

Some simply shaved a coin off.  they now have 93k (owe tax on it) after tax they may have 60k  and 9 coins

left  they do not worry about a blood bath.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Huge bloodbath? Back down to where it was a half a week ago?

You must be new around here.