I tried to keep this reply to you short, it's not though
Wordyman!!
Maybe it would be a Wordy Aggression Indicator instead then, one whereby the ignorance and arrogance of others effects your emotional state in different ways based on your underlying level of confidence
Yep.
It correlates with the Fear & Greed Index I find. Extreme Greed and suddenly $1m BTC predictions (this year) appear possible out of nowhere. Extreme Fear and the bear market is here apparently. The more extreme and more irrational people become.
For sure I factor in public sentiment, in order to counter-trade against it. It only generally effects short-term emotional trading, not the longer term picture in my opinion.
In the short run, sentiment could be something to play with momentum that it might create (or exacerbate), and then at some point, trade to the opposite..
Almost certainly. Ideally, if you ever hear me flip-flopping theories when the price and time-frame hasn't really changed, then it'd be an aberration as well I imagine.
Only very rarely do I change my opinion, because there's some analysis/factor I had overlooked. But if it's become regular, then clearly it'd be a problem.
Otherwise I stay away from any predictions or projections unless I've checked through all my indicators, or enough of them line up for me.
Probably all of us contradict ourselves from time to time... and sometimes do not explain how we arrived at a conclusion.. and sometimes people do not want to explain.. just pronounce what they see or even leave the conclusion blank.
To be fair I mainly stick with leveraging my Bitcoin for altcoins, I guess I should simply call it "trading", but for me I feel I am leveraging my Bitcoin as the goal is more Satoshis.
I otherwise avoid shorting during bull markets (as it's usually quite dumb thing to do), and feel longing is too much of a greedy gamble when I am already 95% long.
Makes no sense if I am longing altcoins with bitcoin I know, but one of those "each to their own" and "whatever works for you" type scenarios.
I can see why there might be some circumstances that you want to trade something that you believe that you see and others do not see it.. there can be some advantage to that... but then motives could be question if you talk about it after you made it but before it executes completely.. aka talking your book.
To each their own.. I would not be able to personally play that kind of style very well, but I could see that if I wanted to play that game, then I could take 20% or more of my total bitcoin portfolio value and start to fuck around with it without hardly giving any shits (because there are already so many profits in there), and in that regard, I could completely categorize that money as already just taking from profits.. By the way, without getting into too many accounting details, there are ways that I could categorize my whole damned bitcoin portfolio as profits, and just start fucking round with all of it because I have decided to categorize it as such.
The 20% for sure is what I actively trade with these days, used to be 5-10% (capped at 10%), but then I went and played the
NFT game, realizing that f I could successfully trade alts for satoshis I should have a go with another 10% in what for now is the fastest growing "asset" class. The risk reward told me I had to do so, it told me 1% allocation, so I decided to effectively put 10x leverage on that
Now it's worth around 15% of my portfolio, so no regrets so far either.
Sometimes those tactics will work, and sometimes they do not. Many of us know what is Martingale betting, but might not realize that we are doing it while in the process.. but even you said that you are willing to take the chance of betting the farm and losing it all..
For sure it'll all crash 90%+ against Bitcoin when the bear market comes, so 99%+ against fiat I imagine, worse than altcoins and the rest I imagine. But for now it's what I'm learning to specialize in, alts appear worthless for profits by comparison.
I however don't "fuck around" in the sense of "not giving a shit". I care a lot about maintaining profit as well as making it, and am incredibly aggressive with my strategy in order to achieve this. Over 80% of my portfolio is now profit, so I don't have the luxury of pissing away my profits, as I'd simply lose most of my wealth! I also made the mistake of re-investing my profits into alts in 2018 and sending half of my portfolio to rekt city, so ain't doing that again
Of course, some peeps will just continue to stack away some portion of their gains on a regular basis so the off limits can grow, yet the trading part could grow too, at least in theory. At least in theory both could be growing with the passage of time.
I don't think you should either. Everyone should do what they're comfortable with an (ideally) what works for them
We are all unique and different, with alternative strategies and emotional states.
no argument here
I had pretty similar a few months ago when Bitcoin was topping out. My mate said he wished he had bought Monero, or invested all his money in Ethereum instead as was outperforming Bitcoin at the time
I told him I wished I didn't own XMR, as was still down 50% on that trade, even if it looked like it had further to run against Bitcoin. Being up 4x against fiat when otherwise should be up 8x is not good.
In the end this became another indicator for me, once friends wish they had speculated more on alts, it's time to take profits
Same friend who got bitcoins back in 2015 and sold at $2K, so acts as a useful indicator as well (I don't tell him this).
It can sometimes take a real long time for matters to play out.. and then maybe concessions that a strategy can be tweaked.. so sometimes you cannot really blame another for sticking with a position, even if you may have already said it is a losing strategy.. they still want to play it out and it could take years.
The vast majority of normies are quite advantaged by DCA when they pursue it. The vast majority cannot beat DCA returns, especially in bitcoin.
Couldn't agree more. Even when you do outperform DCA, it usually isn't by ythat much either, unless you're an expert on derivative exchanges (I am not).
Although ideally I would like to be going into my 5th year and when the bear market comes, otherwise I'll have to manually stack sats hehe.
Some peeps do realize that they have been spinning their wheels after a certain point, but sometimes you can still get benefits out of alternative approaches and practices, even if they are way more work and the profits levels end up being very similar.
Again, for sure. I'd argue it's only if you go more or less full-time into trading in a way that works for you. For most I imagine that'll take 2-3 years to accomplish this level of skill, expertise and successful strategy.
Personally I just checked my 4 year returns (so investment - profits = cost) % increase to holdings, and currently it's at 876%, in comparison to DCA which would have been 477.74%.
Fair enough.. good to account for the comparison points.
Unless you have most of your wealth invested, to me it's clear it's not worth the time or effort trying to outperform dollar cost averaging.
You also have to re-invest most of your profits to achieve this in my opinion, which is obviously a very high level of risk.
I would imagine that the most successful traders will start with smaller amounts and work their way up and then tweak their strategies as they go, including how much of their portfolio they allocate to long term holdings (and to which assets/currencies) and how much to trading.
2017 sounds like a perfect time to get into maintenance if averaging in from 2014, as this also means you would also have had 3 years experience in the market in order to do so successfully I imagine.
I didn't trim at all during 2018-2020. Just bought dips and DCA'd leading into the halving
Of course part of my point was not exactly where the BTC market was, but where I was in terms of starting out with already having had accumulated an investment portfolio over 25 years prior to getting into BTC.. so that affected me and my approach.. but then couple those facts with where the market was at and where it appeared to be going affected decisions about how to proceed and at what point to stop or to change strategies or to consider having enough allocated... but still keep buying even though I felt that I had enough.
I did find that once I felt that I had enough, I was less inclined to FOMO.. but I was NOT completely immuned from FOMOing. It takes a while to get to those positions, and having more than 25 years of investing already.. did help.. and so some newbies try to compare themselves to that, and sure they might not need 25 years to ge there, but they might not be able to get there in less than 10 years, even if they think that they are there. they are not.. but they might not realize until later that they were not sufficiently stacked and staked for UPpity.. .. so there can be questions regarding how much is being worked with and how it is allocated and whether it should be reallocated based on individual circumstances that justify differing answers dependent on the person and his/her circumstances.
For sure it's useful in both directions for traders (as well as necessary), but personally I don't go near leverage trading altcoins. Only shorting BTC/xUSD during bear market, recovery or distribution phases.
As I referenced, it's something I'll need to learn and get better at generally if I want to continue stacking sats in the way I prefer.
For now I'm ok simply taking profits in alts, too much work to be shorting them at the same time for me.
Of course, the more complicated the approach, the more ways it could go wrong, too.
This is probably why DCA works best for you if you're pretty split on lower lows or higher highs or simply sideways movements. It means you more of less benefit either way I assume.
I think that is what I am trying to do, too.... I am setting up my orders in such a way that attempts to match my don't give a shit level.
In fairness, I put high odds on being able to make enough money to buy a house within a 4-year time frame (ie get rich relatively quick from minimal investment), rather than get a mortgage and play the long game.
Everyone thought I was mad (they usually do though), but so far I'm on target for that
Doesn't mean this is going to work, and I'll have to increase my wealth preservation towards the end of this milestone.
Of course, balancing / leveraging of use of debt can be helpful too.. so you do not necessarily need to buy a house with cash if you are using the cash in other potentially more profitable ways.
Fair point. In my mind not making a new ATH this year means we go into a bear market earlier, or are already in one without realizing it yet, which as you know I don't believe. I'm not really considering a sideways consolidation period that take up a long time, but for sure it's more than possible and I should keep my mind open to that. It'd actually be the healthiest way to break the 4 year cycle without triggering a catastrophe as well.
Sometimes we can see where we think it is going, then it breaks that path. I surely am not wedded to any direction or any particular path forward, even if I assign higher probabilities to some scenarios versus other scenarios.
Yeh me too, huge dose of salt right now, until proven otherwise. Especially when there was more talk and theories of it when price was around $60K than there was at $30K
No doubt the theory will return with price reaching 6 figures
I'll only consider it when price doesn't eventually drop 75%...
We already had a 56% drop in a bull market, so I would speculate that a bear market is subjected to higher drops.
Just imagine if the price ended up going up to $1.5 million in this cycle, and there would be no surprise to have another 80% correction.. or even if the BTC price only did a whimpy $750k, a 80% correction only brings us back down to $150k.... You can call it a supercycle or whatever, but I still would say that something like that would be business as usual, just dealing with BIGGER numbers but similar percentages.. .. and sure maybe volatiltity would go down too so the UPs would not be as high and the LOWs would not be as low, but that is kind of an inevitable development too with a growing asset class, so I am not even sure if it is reasonable to refer to it as a supercycle, even if such an UP without very much down could happen, but in my thinking it is a big so what? I still have a lot of BTC no matter if it happens or not.
But surely there are some folks who might ONLY have 1 BTC or even 0.21BTC, and they are kind of hoping for BTC prices to go to $1.5 million or some kind of outrageous UPpity in this cycle.. and nI am not even suggesting that it might not happen, but just that it does not seem to be very healthy to put too many cards in that scenario.. that may or may not happen... and the odds to me seem to be that BTC is going to likely continue to have both a lot of overshooting in both directions and wars that contribute to the overshooting at least for quite a while in the future, and if such wars and overshooting do not happen, then that is fine, too... but seems like a less likely scenarios to have a lovey dovey btclandia world without wars and overshooting.
For now my analysis is more confirmation of hodl stack remaining in tact, rather than averaging further in with fiat. Though that said I do scrape around for more altcoin profits when the time is right, or I want some fancy food
I surely get the lump sum investing thesis.
I love lump sums
I am fine with it.. but it seems to be only part of the formula and can be more emphasized with some people and circumstances as compared with others.
Yeh a strategy that is comfortable for the individual, as well as more successful than DCA - otherwise clearly there is no point buying dips and lump sum investing if you're doing it wrong!
What do you mean by wrong? because people are going to develop systems.. I suppose wrong could be failing/refusing to think about what they are doing, including investing too much and then panicking, no?
Tailoring is good, and attempting to learn along the way is also good.. Almost no matter what some mistakes are likely to be made....
In my thinking acting rather than waiting is good... at least set up your plan that would likely include some acting.
Let's say if you have no coins at all, well you better buy some no matter the price... and then plan from there.. I do not agree with plans that just say wait, unless it is really clear that downity is coming and inevitable (but almost never is downity inevitable - except maybe while it is happening.. and even then it could stop or reverse at any moment)... it is almost never completely clear... so if you were to have $3k to invest but no coins at all, then invest $1k right away would likely be a good start and plan the other $2k for DCA and buying on dips.. and then go from there... in terms of tailoring and at least you are starting out with some stake "in the game.".. from the start, and yes, mistakes could be made because the BTC price might go down from the entry point, and I give no fucks about the price going down after an initial getting started investment, and hopefully you did not be t the whole farm on the initial investment, and fail/refuse to prepare for possible down.
In some sense, when you start to buy yo do not know which way the BTC price is going to go, and you ONLY find out with certainty that the BTC price is going down after it happens, but that should not stop you from investing and figuring out some further plans if you had not planned any details from the start.. we know that saying failing to plan is planning to fail, so some planning should be involved... rather than just going in blindly, even though there might be an initial quasi-blind gettin started investment amount... just to get started..
Of course, there should be some individual tweaking of any BTC accumulation strategy that may later evolve to maintenance or liquidation.. but it starts out with accumulation, but it is quite good to get started right away, and even if you decide only to buy $100 right away and to set your other $2,900 up with buying on dips and DCA, then that is a decision that you could decide to make as well.. but in my opinion it is good to get the fuck off zero as soon as possible. and then go from there. and yes, plenty of folks do not agree with me about that... and they believe that there is some kind of need to wait for a dip (that may or may not come), especially if such newbie that does not know shit except what mainstream media might be saying that there are good feelings that a dip is coming.... and yeah a dip is always coming, but it might not come.. and my point is we do not know, and when we come to BTC most of us already are 100% in fiat or fiat related investments, so it is not going to hurt much if anything to buy a wee bit of BTC right way and get your ass the fuck off of zero as soon as possible whether it is buying $100 or $1,000 while you are thinking about the next move(s) about what to do (if anything ) after that.
By the way, I had an uncle who I sent $10 of BTC in 2014, and then he bought $300 in 2016.. and then he sat on the amount until mid 2017, and then he sold all of it when BTC prices were around $3,500 (made some big money with nearly 6x profits) and he continues to be a no coiner.. because he failed/refused to continue to take a stake in it or to take much if any action besides one lump sum investing. Peeps are going to peep... and sometimes do dumb stuff.
Damn right there was! I was around 90% confident we wouldn't drop >35%, I remember when we did and thinking "ah shit, oh well". I also remain 90% confident that we won't drop >50% again however
If you are saying drop 50% again from $47,300? At this particular time, I would give that about a 25% chance of happening in this calendar year, rather than a 10% chance.. but whatever... we are not too far apart on that one.
I meant from an ATH, as also the only other time this happened in BTC history was in 2012 and it didn't happen twice in that bull market either which is reassuring. Nor did it happen from a local swing high it's worth noting.
Happening from $47.3K down to $23.65K I wouldn't say has a 10% chance, maybe 20%, as in 2012 the wick to wick correction was closer to 60% anyway if not mistaken, it's all possible without being a bear market as well.
Ok... we are seeing a lot of these various odds of UP or down fairly similarly.. not exactly the same, but pretty close to the same in the whole scheme of things.
Yeh I don't think normal people should follow my strategy what so ever, I advise everyone and anyone who wants to know to put a small amount of money in.
Only after a few years of in depth research as well as experience should anyone try and outperform the market in my opinion.
That said I do have a friend who follow trades me and does quite well from it
Of course, if someone is following your attempting to time the market strategy with small amounts, then such person can figure out if some variation of that style is comfortable for him/her or if s/he needs some other style that is more comfortable. .. and it could be some individually tailored variation of what you do that could evolve over time to be either more like what you do or to deviate into more of a a strategy that does not involve attempting to time the market.
For sure, you would not want someone just jumping in blindly in styles that attempt to time the market, and some people are more willing to attempt to learn than others, too.
I try to establish strategies that anyone can follow without really trying to time the market at all and just sucking up BTC no matter the price, but even with what I do, it still can take time for anyone to go through the whole process of figuring out his/her budget and then starting to accumulate bitcoin within goals that they create for themselves and tweaking along the way with the BTC accumulation strategies... and so as the earliest strategies might put more emphasis on DCA buying, but the lump sum buying and buying on dips can be involved from the start too, just depending on how much time the person would want to attempt to employ such BTC accumulation strategies rather than just blindly setting up DCA.. which also works white well for a lot of newbies.
As partially referenced: absolutely not. Took me years to learn and make it successful, years of studying chart patterns and probability, as well as calculating position sizing and risk/rewards. For me all my alts positioning comes from January-February, it's a once every 4 years opportunity, even
if does appear to come around twice within the bull market, but regardless I now consider it too high-risk to be re-positioning and feel I have more than enough exposure still despite the profit taking. I also technically don't "trade alts" I trade the season, alts are just how I expose myself from the change in Bitcoin to Altcoin seasons. I don't trade against the tide anymore, also too high risk for me.
Yes.. learning along the way.
That said, the profit taking strategy is very simplistic. Ideally wait for price to get above all Weekly MAs (short,mid,long) after being in a 4 year long downtrend, get confirmation of a bull cross on the Daily, make sure the target is 4x minimum. Sell half at 2x. Keep selling half at 2x. Rinse and repeat. Set all the limit sells in advance and generally ignore with limited maintenance. I only leave some shit to run when I've pulled at least 75% out of already (made profit). Even then, I'll sell any breakdowns that I see when the tide changes, as 10-20x is great, but 90-95% drops isn't as useful to me ;-) A lot of shit ends up back to entry price with a 50-75% drop anyway, so don't feel the need to re-position myself (or double down, fuck that).
I otherwise ignore all so-called fundamentals of altcoins. If the chart looks good I buy, if it looks like it's breaking down, I take profits. Completely emotionless and without a grain of sentiment basically. Never sell at a loss either.
None of this sounds bad, really.. just a wee bit more complicated than focusing on BTC and DCA, lump sum and buy on dips.
