I tried to keep this reply to you short, it's not though
the length and energy you put into your replies appears to be a good emotional indicator for your underlying confidence in my opinion, also quite helpful.
Sometimes I overly go on the aggressive because I notice some kind of dig that might need to be addressed. Other times, I might not get aggressive, even if someone might have intended something as a kind of "dig." I am not sure if I want to provide any examples, but sometimes a person will insult in a certain kind of angle that just comes off as so desperate that it is humorous, and it ONLY needs to be responded to in a humerous way rather than really taking it seriously. I just thought of a decent example... several members used to go after my avatar quite a bit, and seemingly in serious ways trying to get under my skin, and really it should be quite difficult to let those kinds of attacks get to you.. My avatar has been less of a topic in recent times, and probably the hat, glasses and the recently added laser eyes kind of obscures it, anyhow.
Maybe it would be a Wordy Aggression Indicator instead then, one whereby the ignorance and arrogance of others effects your emotional state in different ways based on your underlying level of confidence
Hahaha I remember a friend pointing me to a chart like this that were spreading like a virus among newbies it seems, the $30-65K crowd basically. There were also quite a few varieties if not mistaken. Personally I wasn't paying much attention, instead staying away from the short-term noise, instead focusing on the 50% discount opportunities around this time.
Actually, you are correct that there can be some humor in the fact that certain kinds of price theory themes seem to come up at similar times... so sure there might be some questions regarding how much weight to give them.. and another aspect is that some people do give some weight to public sentiments (even if they might be wrong) they sometimes can drive price, especially on the margins.. or to exacerbate an already existing condition.
It correlates with the Fear & Greed Index I find. Extreme Greed and suddenly $1m BTC predictions (this year) appear possible out of nowhere. Extreme Fear and the bear market is here apparently. The more extreme and more irrational people become.
For sure I factor in public sentiment, in order to counter-trade against it. It only generally effects short-term emotional trading, not the longer term picture in my opinion.
So, initially, I was just seeking clarification including my assertion that it's not too likely that we are in 2018... . but instead of explaining himself, goldkingcoiner went into combative mode including wiffle waffling all over the place and even changing his position... and even waffling more when the BTC price went against his nonsense.
Oh, one of those analysis types. Good to know
I had not remembered seeing that kind of flip-floppiness coming from him before, so I was a bit surprised.. and so that back and forth could have been an aberration, perhaps?
Almost certainly. Ideally, if you ever hear me flip-flopping theories when the price and time-frame hasn't really changed, then it'd be an aberration as well I imagine.
Only very rarely do I change my opinion, because there's some analysis/factor I had overlooked. But if it's become regular, then clearly it'd be a problem.
Otherwise I stay away from any predictions or projections unless I've checked through all my indicators, or enough of them line up for me.
Being wrong 20-30% of the time with my positions doesn't effect me. I've learnt from previous mistakes of over-leveraging, to the point of under-leveraging, and now I've found the statistical balance for maximum gains that I am able to achieve.
Yep, even though I don't use leverage I do understand the concept, and I understand how the orders could be structured in ways that they are in the ball park of profitable no matter what (but they are leaning more towards one direction or another depending upon your analysis of likely price direction).
To be fair I mainly stick with leveraging my Bitcoin for altcoins, I guess I should simply call it "trading", but for me I feel I am leveraging my Bitcoin as the goal is more Satoshis.
I otherwise avoid shorting during bull markets (as it's usually quite dumb thing to do), and feel longing is too much of a greedy gamble when I am already 95% long.
Makes no sense if I am longing altcoins with bitcoin I know, but one of those "each to their own" and "whatever works for you" type scenarios.
To each their own.. I would not be able to personally play that kind of style very well, but I could see that if I wanted to play that game, then I could take 20% or more of my total bitcoin portfolio value and start to fuck around with it without hardly giving any shits (because there are already so many profits in there), and in that regard, I could completely categorize that money as already just taking from profits.. By the way, without getting into too many accounting details, there are ways that I could categorize my whole damned bitcoin portfolio as profits, and just start fucking round with all of it because I have decided to categorize it as such.
The 20% for sure is what I actively trade with these days, used to be 5-10% (capped at 10%), but then I went and played the
NFT game, realizing that f I could successfully trade alts for satoshis I should have a go with another 10% in what for now is the fastest growing "asset" class. The risk reward told me I had to do so, it told me 1% allocation, so I decided to effectively put 10x leverage on that
Now it's worth around 15% of my portfolio, so no regrets so far either.
For sure it'll all crash 90%+ against Bitcoin when the bear market comes, so 99%+ against fiat I imagine, worse than altcoins and the rest I imagine. But for now it's what I'm learning to specialize in, alts appear worthless for profits by comparison.
I however don't "fuck around" in the sense of "not giving a shit". I care a lot about maintaining profit as well as making it, and am incredibly aggressive with my strategy in order to achieve this. Over 80% of my portfolio is now profit, so I don't have the luxury of pissing away my profits, as I'd simply lose most of my wealth! I also made the mistake of re-investing my profits into alts in 2018 and sending half of my portfolio to rekt city, so ain't doing that again
In any event, I just cannot see myself changing my style, yet perhaps if I was 1) younger, 2) looking for an adventure in life or 3) having some desires to learn some new skills with a decent amount of capital, I could likely cause my fuck you potential stash of 0.21 BTC to go to zero.. hahahahaha.
I am not going to do it.. just having thought-experiment fun, here.
I don't think you should either. Everyone should do what they're comfortable with an (ideally) what works for them
We are all unique and different, with alternative strategies and emotional states.
Simply because it felt right, an emotional confidence booster. I wanted to pay half price on taxes, knowing that I could take the hit if I would be wrong. It wouldn't be so much of a "hit", much more likely taking profits at an inferior price, which would feel a bit degrading but needs must etc.
That reminds me. About 3 months ago (right around the time of the May crash), I recall talking with one of my cousins about various shitcoins that I happen to still have from 2016-ish/2017, and in some sense I was trying to poo-poo the value of those stupid shitcoins and that I did not care about them because they were worthless to me, but as I was describing them, I could tell that I probably was saying too much, and I was NOT even trying to be bragging - because each piece of shitcoin that I had been describing as being unimportant to me had value in my wallet of several times of all his shitcoin investments put together that he was making a BIG deal about, and he seem to have some envy about the shitcoins that I held and how profitable that they were, and I kept telling him that I considered each and everyone of those shitcoins to be worthless while his eyes were glazing over with envy both in terms of the quantity of value and the quantity of profits (in terms of dollars) that each of them had. as I was describing them.. and I said that I give no shits about those shitcoins... which was true... and still remains true because I have not really touched them and I did a quick look at them, and they seem to have retained their dollar value from late May to present.. and I still don't care about them.
I had pretty similar a few months ago when Bitcoin was topping out. My mate said he wished he had bought Monero, or invested all his money in Ethereum instead as was outperforming Bitcoin at the time
I told him I wished I didn't own XMR, as was still down 50% on that trade, even if it looked like it had further to run against Bitcoin. Being up 4x against fiat when otherwise should be up 8x is not good.
In the end this became another indicator for me, once friends wish they had speculated more on alts, it's time to take profits
Same friend who got bitcoins back in 2015 and sold at $2K, so acts as a useful indicator as well (I don't tell him this).
The vast majority of normies are quite advantaged by DCA when they pursue it. The vast majority cannot beat DCA returns, especially in bitcoin.
Couldn't agree more. Even when you do outperform DCA, it usually isn't by ythat much either, unless you're an expert on derivative exchanges (I am not).
Although ideally I would like to be going into my 5th year and when the bear market comes, otherwise I'll have to manually stack sats hehe.
Let's use uie-pooie as a specific example, and just to have somewhat round numbers, we will use 4 years as your investment timeline. Of course, the longer the better, but I cannot recall if you had earlier dates that you could proclaim that you quasi-seriously started looking into bitcoin, so 4 years and 2017.. seem to be as good of a time as any.. just to provide us some ballpark ideas regarding performance that you could have gotten with DCA-ing and not fucking around .. the whole time..
$100 per week would have cost you about $21k invested, you would have accumulated nearly 2.54 BTC, and so you would have had a return of nearly 5x. Sure that is not very exciting. You likely need more time in the market, but hopefully you have at least 5x returns at this point..
Let's take my nearly
8-year timeline as an example, then (with a December 1, 2013 starting date). $100 per week would have cost about $40k invested, and an accumulation of nearly 46 BTC, and my timeline should have nearly 51x returns. Surely those kinds of returns are a wee bit more exciting, right? Hard to beat those kinds of returns, no?
Again, for sure. I'd argue it's only if you go more or less full-time into trading in a way that works for you. For most I imagine that'll take 2-3 years to accomplish this level of skill, expertise and successful strategy.
Personally I just checked my 4 year returns (so investment - profits = cost) % increase to holdings, and currently it's at 876%, in comparison to DCA which would have been 477.74%.
Unless you have most of your wealth invested, to me it's clear it's not worth the time or effort trying to outperform dollar cost averaging.
You also have to re-invest most of your profits to achieve this in my opinion, which is obviously a very high level of risk.
Likewise I prefer as much time as possible to accumulate, even if acutely aware when time is running out. The bull market bores me to be honest! I found it a lot more interesting when prices dropped 50% and there's actually some thought provoking analysis rather than the rocket ships and moon memes. But sure, I'm a bit weird like that, as for me it's not about the money: It's about learning and doing the best I can in life.
Maybe you might still consider me to be a little bit goofy and torn because even though I felt that I had enough of a stake by late 2014, I still continued to accumulate through 2015.. and maybe I did not really start to truly consider myself to more largely evolved into a kind of maintenance state until early 2017.. but part of the problem is that none of the stages of accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation are 100% in isolation because there can be combination of tactics even if dominantly I felt that I had already established a "good enough" stake in late 2014... but I still fucked around.
2017 sounds like a perfect time to get into maintenance if averaging in from 2014, as this also means you would also have had 3 years experience in the market in order to do so successfully I imagine.
I didn't trim at all during 2018-2020. Just bought dips and DCA'd leading into the halving
How can I learn when price is just on a steady uptrend? Bores the fuck out of me to be honest. I don't trade against strength and I'm not trying to sell the top either.
Once If new ATH is made this year, I'll likely be taking a break from TA again
I understand that volatility is a friend of traders, but I though that volatility in both directions would be useful for traders.. but sure, whatever floats your boat in terms of if you believe (or have concluded) that you have DOWNity directional strengths.
For sure it's useful in both directions for traders (as well as necessary), but personally I don't go near leverage trading altcoins. Only shorting BTC/xUSD during bear market, recovery or distribution phases.
As I referenced, it's something I'll need to learn and get better at generally if I want to continue stacking sats in the way I prefer.
For now I'm ok simply taking profits in alts, too much work to be shorting them at the same time for me.
Gosh.. I don't even recall conjecturing in recent times about the odds that I believe that a new ATH will be reached this year. My conjecture would have to be less than 50%.. because I hate to be presumening too much.. a new ATH from here ($47,350) would be like a 40% price increase... A new ATH this year does remain of the most likely of scenarios, maybe at something like 39% odds... hahahahaha.. fuck I am a conservative twat, sometimes.
Just think about it.. I probably should not even say anything.. odds for downity and a new bottom 37% (but that does not mean that we do not recover.. so maybe getting stuck in downity would be less than 25%.. then maybe there are other scenarios that would add up to 36% that causes various forms of ups, downs and sideways in the BTC price and no new ATH to play out for this year.. and then the remaining odds of a new ATH happening in this year end up being something like 39%-ish..
This is probably why DCA works best for you if you're pretty split on lower lows or higher highs or simply sideways movements. It means you more of less benefit either way I assume.
Sure I am pulling these percentage approximations out of my ass but whatever, I hate to put too high of odds on getting automatically richie.. otherwise, then maybe that would justify my engaging in stupid behaviors that are not in line with reality odds of all the things that could happen that put a new ATH for this year to be amongst the most probable of scenarios, but still ONLY in the 39%-ish territory.. and then when I consider the matter in this way, I am more likely to be acting like a prudent investor rather than a gambling who assigns fantasy levels of certainty to the future that are not realistic and do not properly, prudently and adequately prepare lil selfie for both UPpity and Downity in both psychological and financial ways.
In fairness, I put high odds on being able to make enough money to buy a house within a 4-year time frame (ie get rich relatively quick from minimal investment), rather than get a mortgage and play the long game.
Everyone thought I was mad (they usually do though), but so far I'm on target for that
Doesn't mean this is going to work, and I'll have to increase my wealth preservation towards the end of this milestone.
The idea that the 10 year bull market is over, and for sure a 20 year bear market could occur with high probability for me personally. But ultimately, I only put this down to a 5% chance. I'd go from uber bull to uber bear in a hurry basically.
In my humble bumble opinion, not getting a new ATH in this calendar year does not necessarily trigger that we are in a bear market, even if it may well take the bull market much longer than expected to play out. There are powerful forces that could keep this bad boy down for way longer than many of the HODLers would prefer, and may well even cause a decent amount of shakening of more weak hands. I am not very likely to change my strategy, even if it could take 18 more months to get to a new ATH.. sure an outlier scenario.. but I am pretty much o.k. and prepared financially and psychologically with "riding this pig wherever it takes me" (right billyjoelallen?)
Fair point. In my mind not making a new ATH this year means we go into a bear market earlier, or are already in one without realizing it yet, which as you know I don't believe. I'm not really considering a sideways consolidation period that take up a long time, but for sure it's more than possible and I should keep my mind open to that. It'd actually be the healthiest way to break the 4 year cycle without triggering a catastrophe as well.
Within this 8.3% chance, I'd put higher weight of a type of super cycle that breaks this trend, as after the third halving it's becoming a bit repetitive already. It does seem much less likely that Bitcoin's fourth cycle will follow the same time-frame as the previous three, as it'd simply be too easy. That said, I feel the change would be more likely during a bear market than end of bull market if a top is coming in over winter, exactly when time traders such as myself will likely be cashing out, anticipating another 80% drop like clockwork followed by 3 year long accumulation period. In reality, ideally these 4-year cycles do come to an end with upside benefit, as otherwise the potential for a 20 year long bear market becomes incredibly likely for me. I'd for sure be extrapolating what happened to Gold onto a Bitcoin chart, but for now there is clearly no need! Breaking this cycle in a bear market could be somewhat catastrophic however (panic could really set in if we don't bottom when time anticipates), hence hoping it will be broken during the bull market.
I take supercycle theories with a pretty damned large grain of salt.. and sure there are various scenarios that such supercycle theories could happen, and until they do, we have our already currently existing and seemingly valid BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption, and those are not broken, as far as I can tell. and supercycle is already kind of contained therein.. within the exponential s-curve adoption portion of the three-way combo... no need to get into specific sorcery status when the models already exist and I personally give few shits about specifics while riding this pig.
Yeh me too, huge dose of salt right now, until proven otherwise. Especially when there was more talk and theories of it when price was around $60K than there was at $30K
No doubt the theory will return with price reaching 6 figures
I'll only consider it when price doesn't eventually drop 75%...
For now my analysis is more confirmation of hodl stack remaining in tact, rather than averaging further in with fiat. Though that said I do scrape around for more altcoin profits when the time is right, or I want some fancy food
I surely get the lump sum investing thesis.
I love lump sums
Let's say that you had $20k extra dollars, and when the BTC price was at $10k, you decided to use half of it to buy bitcoin at $10k and then somewhere along the line you noticed that the price was going up.. so you just decided to wait it out, and the price gets to $65k and then crashes back down to $30k.. so at some point in the $30k to $40k price arena, you might decide to put your other $10k in.. or maybe $5k or maybe in the past 10 months, you got another $10k of extra cash, so then you have $20k... so you just put $10k in or you put the whole $20k in .. Guys are going to come to differing conclusions about how to play it and I would likely divide such stash into the three categories of 1) DCA, 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips... So, I am not even sure which method would play out better over time, but each of us pick a method that is comfortable for our own situation.
Yeh a strategy that is comfortable for the individual, as well as more successful than DCA - otherwise clearly there is no point buying dips and lump sum investing if you're doing it wrong!
Damn right there was! I was around 90% confident we wouldn't drop >35%, I remember when we did and thinking "ah shit, oh well". I also remain 90% confident that we won't drop >50% again however
If you are saying drop 50% again from $47,300? At this particular time, I would give that about a 25% chance of happening in this calendar year, rather than a 10% chance.. but whatever... we are not too far apart on that one.
I meant from an ATH, as also the only other time this happened in BTC history was in 2012 and it didn't happen twice in that bull market either which is reassuring. Nor did it happen from a local swing high it's worth noting.
Happening from $47.3K down to $23.65K I wouldn't say has a 10% chance, maybe 20%, as in 2012 the wick to wick correction was closer to 60% anyway if not mistaken, it's all possible without being a bear market as well.
How is this even possible to remain this confident? Probability. With about a dozen pull-backs only ever reaching 35% within a bull market, with the exception of 2012, this was simple quick mafs.
Sure, that is how you roll and how you play your cards, and if it works for you, then so be it.. I am not saying it is necessarily a worse way of going about things, even though sometimes I am not really clear what you mean or how it might apply to a normie, but no problema if it has worked for you and seems to be continuing to work for you.
Yeh I don't think normal people should follow my strategy what so ever, I advise everyone and anyone who wants to know to put a small amount of money in.
Only after a few years of in depth research as well as experience should anyone try and outperform the market in my opinion.
That said I do have a friend who follow trades me and does quite well from it
As partially referenced: absolutely not. Took me years to learn and make it successful, years of studying chart patterns and probability, as well as calculating position sizing and risk/rewards. For me all my alts positioning comes from January-February, it's a once every 4 years opportunity, even
if does appear to come around twice within the bull market, but regardless I now consider it too high-risk to be re-positioning and feel I have more than enough exposure still despite the profit taking. I also technically don't "trade alts" I trade the season, alts are just how I expose myself from the change in Bitcoin to Altcoin seasons. I don't trade against the tide anymore, also too high risk for me.
That said, the profit taking strategy is very simplistic. Ideally wait for price to get above all Weekly MAs (short,mid,long) after being in a 4 year long downtrend, get confirmation of a bull cross on the Daily, make sure the target is 4x minimum. Sell half at 2x. Keep selling half at 2x. Rinse and repeat. Set all the limit sells in advance and generally ignore with limited maintenance. I only leave some shit to run when I've pulled at least 75% out of already (made profit). Even then, I'll sell any breakdowns that I see when the tide changes, as 10-20x is great, but 90-95% drops isn't as useful to me ;-) A lot of shit ends up back to entry price with a 50-75% drop anyway, so don't feel the need to re-position myself (or double down, fuck that).
I otherwise ignore all so-called fundamentals of altcoins. If the chart looks good I buy, if it looks like it's breaking down, I take profits. Completely emotionless and without a grain of sentiment basically. Never sell at a loss either.
Actually, it seems better for me to attempt to gravitate back towards 50/50 ideas in regards to short term BTC price directions - but again, surely my level of confidence is going to depend on the questions that are being asked in terms of if the $28,600 bottom is in or what are the chances that we break above $53k or what might be the other resistance points, because in some sense, if the BTC rice is allowed to get avove a certain threshold, such as $53k or something else, then it is going to be a whole hell of a lot more difficult for beartwats to actually keep the BTC price from making new ATHs.. and in that regard, you are probably of a similar mind as me in terms of the difficulties to stop the momentum once the BTC price gets above certain price points, but even then we might get into upper 60% territories in my mind, but you might start assigning way higher odds such as in the upper 90%s which I would consider to be gambling (or pie in the sky) rather than being realistic (with yourself).
Ah no, fear not. I'm nowhere near 90% on the immediate uptrend returning quite yet! I'd give it 66% at best that we don't make lower lows this year, while price is above the accumulation zone. I'm simply 95% of new ATH by end of year, not much else. I also agree above a vague $50-55K level being breached increases my %, previous support turned resistance as well as mid-level of log growth, and therefore I can't really be more than 70% confident of much until then.
You are starting to sound like me with some of those whimpy percentages that you are throwing out...
Ikr
Nice chatting with you again
Edit:I'll otherwise make it clear when I'm back to full-blown bull on all time-frames and therefore unlikely posting TA:
Credit: xhomerx10
Lovely hat.
Ikr
