Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4919. (Read 26608904 times)

Explanation

Question is: given the shortage of BTC on the exchanges, granted that more than half of UTXO movements happen outside of CEXes (OTC trades for the big ones), considering the pandemic is not over and all that comes around it....
100K this year or next year?
That's the question.

Naaah.. we love ya Jay!  

#nohomo

Explanation

I seem to be losing "fans" left and right.

Then you are easily confused, Jay.

Yeah those MIT folks are smart, they knew that.

Well, I like cat videos, so there is that.

Damn it Jay, you didn't have to agree with me on this point.

You don't say.

I'd say after like your first 500 words of blah blah blah...most folks on this thread.....

I deny that those are all my words in that post.  

Deny

Deny

Deny.

#that's all

$ wc -w ./temp-jjg.txt
8873

Sorry, approaching 9 thousand words in one post? Life's too short. Back to /ignore. You often have interesting things to say. 

Explanation

Whatevers.... we did be get MOAR richie, even if we might have been questioning if we be stuck when at $10k 11 months ago.. ..

And, then we also might have been really questioning if we be stuck below $4k (especially in late 2018 and early 2019).. but then May 2019.. kind of showed those of us who were paying attention that we not be stuck in DOWNity... did anyone here fail refuse to recognize that as a kind of confirmation of the bull market had happened around May 2019 when we crossed well above $6,500 and were on our way to $13,880 in the coming 6 weeks, even if we had not known it at the time..

Did we even consider that our lovely dovey lil bull market has been playing out (aka happening) for about 2.5 years.. so far (and as I type this post). and such bull market does not seem to be over yet... does it? does it?  Anyone?

Do we get another 4 months of UPpity or quasi-UPpity out of this bad boy.. or maybe there is another 10 to 12 months for the top of this particular cycle to be reached?  Whatcha think?  Whatcha gonna do?

You are going to be hard-pressed to have singenings that include me complaining about where we are at, where we have been, or where we seem to be going.


Just looks like Pokemon to me.


I hate when that happens.  Throws me off, for sure.


No one can really object to wearing hats.  Now, watching cat videos would be another story.


Surely.. not a pleasant experience.


Something sounds familiar (and comfortable) about that.

I am thinkening about who would not want to read (and talk when fit-in-able) about lillie fiend?  Answer me that.

I have woods an axe and a wood stove in the addition so I pretty much have all the bases covered with my generator in the shed that will power the house with a switch. I like to have overlapping systems, its served me well during grid failures. I also have a small windmill for the last 10 years that I've been to lazy to install.
I still haven't picked up any solar for some illogical reason.

Ohh yeah there was that one time I almost burned the place down with the generator. Gas can failures while filling a running generator can be a a bitch.

pLoT tWiSt...

homer, siraz, and jay are actually 3 different manifestations of an advanced AI bot released to the wild by
MIT nerds, designed to mess with the wob community, by making them wear hats, listen to terrible homemade SoundCloud tracks,
and subjecting them to walls of droning text about the uppity and downitys of bitcoin with lots of words that end with "enings"...

Explanation

Sometimes I feel as if I am just making shit up, and I have no grounding.  I have been especially beaten up by some technical analysis guys on this point for proclaiming that I am not grounded enough or that I am not in a position to meaningfully criticize some of their technical analysis because I don't adequately understand what the fuck they are saying (and surely there is some truth in some of those criticisms).


hahahahahaha   One of the great things about that, is that he is not faking it (at least as far as I can tell)


I'm not even sure.  Sometimes, I just am already inclined to say something on a topic or the post of another person just causes me to consider another angle that might need to be pointed out.



You are right.. Tone and appearance of genuineness can change the response.

Sometimes I overly go on the aggressive because I notice some kind of dig that might need to be addressed.  Other times, I might not get aggressive, even if someone might have intended something as a kind of "dig."  I am not sure if I want to provide any examples, but sometimes a person will insult in a certain kind of angle that just comes off as so desperate that it is humorous, and it ONLY needs to be responded to in a humerous way rather than really taking it seriously.  I just thought of a decent example... several members used to go after my avatar quite a bit, and seemingly in serious ways trying to get under my skin, and really it should be quite difficult to let those kinds of attacks get to you.. My avatar has been less of a topic in recent times, and probably the hat, glasses and the recently added laser eyes kind of obscures it, anyhow.  



Some of us are people.  


Actually, you are correct that there can be some humor in the fact that certain kinds of price theory themes seem to come up at similar times... so sure there might be some questions regarding how much weight to give them.. and another aspect is that some people do give some weight to public sentiments (even if they might be wrong) they sometimes can drive price, especially on the margins.. or to exacerbate an already existing condition.


For sure.. I would not proclaim that sometimes opportunities are just screaming for persons in a position to jump in at the right time (and could be bitcoin or some random shitcoin.. but sure, about 97.5% of the time I don't play around with shitcoins, even I might feel some decent confidence in an opportunity.. but I cannot say that I have never dabbled a wee bit.. just for funzies.. but frequently my head hurts to even think about matters like shitcoins, even if there seems to be some kind of funzies opportunity that could stack some sats or potentially send some kind of ideological message.


It can be fun to share ideas with folks, even if you might not be on the same page.. and for sure, sometimes the information does not sink in or they keep talking about blah blah blah .. which seems irrelevant, but hard to get the ideas out of their head, even if seeming to have had provided slam dunk evidence and arguments against.


I had not remembered seeing that kind of flip-floppiness coming from him before, so I was a bit surprised.. and so that back and forth could have been an aberration, perhaps?


You are right.. you have probably explained yourself previously on these kinds of points.

I can kind of relate.  For example, I consider that I really am ONLY opening and closing longs, but I try to set my longs in such a way that I don't give hardly any shits which way the BTC price goes, so even if the bullishness or bearishness of the short-to-medium bitcoin price dynamics changes, my orders do not tend to change until they start to seem like they are starting to get kind of far removed from my overall feeling of the situation.. so every once in a while I will go in there and totally restructure everything to make me feel more better overall... but in the whole scheme of things, it will not be a whole hell of a lot of a difference, and sometimes I can just go in and change a few orders on one side or another, and I am back into emotionally neutral territory.



Yep, even though I don't use leverage I do understand the concept, and I understand how the orders could be structured in ways that they are in the ball park of profitable no matter what (but they are leaning more towards one direction or another depending upon your analysis of likely price direction).


I put quite a bit of value in capital preservation, so the idea of losing great amounts of capital does not rub me very well.


To each their own.. I would not be able to personally play that kind of style very well, but I could see that if I wanted to play that game, then I could take 20% or more of my total bitcoin portfolio value and start to fuck around with it without hardly giving any shits (because there are already so many profits in there), and in that regard, I could completely categorize that money as already just taking from profits..   By the way, without getting into too many accounting details, there are ways that I could categorize my whole damned bitcoin portfolio as profits, and just start fucking round with all of it because I have decided to categorize it as such.

In any event, I just cannot see myself changing my style, yet perhaps if I was 1) younger, 2) looking for an adventure in life or 3) having some desires to learn some new skills with a decent amount of capital, I could likely cause my fuck you potential stash of 0.21 BTC to go to zero.. hahahahaha.  

I am not going to do it.. just having thought-experiment fun, here.  


Sometimes it could pay off to take some chances.  I am NOT going to say that I never do.  

That reminds me.  About 3 months ago (right around the time of the May crash), I recall talking with one of my cousins about various shitcoins that I happen to still have from 2016-ish/2017, and in some sense I was trying to poo-poo the value of those stupid shitcoins and that I did not care about them because they were worthless to me, but as I was describing them, I could tell that I probably was saying too much, and I was NOT even trying to be bragging - because each piece of shitcoin that I had been describing as being unimportant to me had value in my wallet of several times of all his shitcoin investments put together that he was making a BIG deal about, and he seem to have some envy about the shitcoins that I held and how profitable that they were, and I kept telling him that I considered each and everyone of those shitcoins to be worthless while his eyes were glazing over with envy both in terms of the quantity of value and the quantity of profits (in terms of dollars) that each of them had. as I was describing them.. and I said that I give no shits about those shitcoins... which was true... and still remains true because I have not really touched them and I did a quick look at them, and they seem to have retained their dollar value from late May to present.. and I still don't care about them.


Of course, level of certainty is something that moves, but if it is largely 50/50 for me, and just gravitating towards one side or another, then I am not fucking around with the slight changes, even if I had already said that my confidence about the bottom of $28,600 being "in" to currently be at about 63%, there is not a whole hell of a lot that I need to or want to change based on going from 50/50 three weeks ago and now up to in the ballpark of 63% currently.  

Sure maybe I can trade on that increased level of confidence in small ways such as going out and buying a steak dinner rather than eating chicken mcnuggets and also maybe I can get a wee bit more cocky, and sure there can be things that I can do on the margins, but I might not be making any kinds of major changes in what I am doing merely based on a move up in confidence from 50% to 63%.



I am more certain about describing something from the past than about what may or may not happen in the future.      But even describing the past might not be 100% if you don't know all the facts - and sure some might proclaim that the past is 100% regarding what actually happened, but your description, framing and how much weight to give to various causations may well be quite short of 100%.


The vast majority of normies are quite advantaged by DCA when they pursue it.  The vast majority cannot beat DCA returns, especially in bitcoin.

Let's use uie-pooie as a specific example, and just to have somewhat round numbers, we will use 4 years as your investment timeline.  Of course, the longer the better, but I cannot recall if you had earlier dates that you could proclaim that you quasi-seriously started looking into bitcoin, so 4 years and 2017.. seem to be as good of a time as any.. just to provide us some  ballpark ideas regarding performance that you could have gotten with DCA-ing and not fucking around .. the whole time..

$100 per week would have cost you about $21k invested, you would have accumulated nearly 2.54 BTC, and so you would have had a return of nearly 5x. Sure that is not very exciting.  You likely need more time in the market, but hopefully you have at least 5x returns at this point..

Let's take my nearly 8-year timeline as an example, then (with a December 1, 2013 starting date).  $100 per week would have cost about $40k invested, and an accumulation of nearly 46 BTC, and my timeline should have nearly 51x returns.   Surely those kinds of returns are a wee bit more exciting, right?  Hard to beat those kinds of returns, no?



I don't know.  There seem to be quite a few guys who are still in their BTC accumulation stages, and we have newbies coming to this forum and this thread all the time.  I am not criticizing guys for being in such a stage of BTC accumulation because it can take a real long time to either get close to fuck you status or to get to a point in which BTC accumulation is NOT as much central to the formula of what is being done.

By the way, I had already kind of considered myself in a kind of fuck you stage when I started in bitcoin.. not like a high level but kind of in a comfortable position with my various fiat investments and the cashflow being generated from such.  So in late 2013 when I got into bitcoin, I had initially just pursued a kind of getting a stake exposure, while I attempted to study the bitcoin matter, but by late 2014, I had established that my target stake was going to be 10% of my total investment portfolio, and that I had largely reached that stake by late 2014.

Maybe you might still consider me to be a little bit goofy and torn because even though I felt that I had enough of a stake by late 2014, I still continued to accumulate through 2015.. and maybe I did not really start to truly consider myself to more largely evolved into a kind of maintenance state until early 2017.. but part of the problem is that none of the stages of accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation are 100% in isolation because there can be combination of tactics even if dominantly I felt that I had already established a "good enough" stake in late 2014... but I still fucked around.


I understand that volatility is a friend of traders, but I though that volatility in both directions would be useful for traders.. but sure, whatever floats your boat in terms of if you believe (or have concluded) that you have DOWNity directional strengths.


Gosh.. I don't even recall conjecturing in recent times about the odds that I believe that a new ATH will be reached this year.  My conjecture would have to be less than 50%.. because I hate to be presumening too much.. a new ATH from here ($47,350) would be like a 40% price increase... A new ATH this year does remain of the most likely of scenarios, maybe at something like 39% odds...  hahahahaha.. fuck I am a conservative twat, sometimes.

Just think about it.. I probably should not even say anything.. odds for downity and a new bottom 37% (but that does not mean that we do not recover.. so maybe getting stuck in downity would be less than 25%.. then maybe there are other scenarios that would add up to 36% that causes various forms of ups, downs and sideways in the BTC price and no new ATH to play out for this year.. and then the remaining odds of a new ATH happening in this year end up being something like 39%-ish..

Sure I am pulling these percentage approximations out of my ass but whatever, I hate to put too high of odds on getting automatically richie.. otherwise, then maybe that would justify my engaging in stupid behaviors that are not in line with reality odds of all the things that could happen that put a new ATH for this year to be amongst the most probable of scenarios, but still ONLY in the 39%-ish territory.. and then when I consider the matter in this way, I am more likely to be acting like a prudent investor rather than a gambling who assigns fantasy levels of certainty to the future that are not realistic and do not properly, prudently and adequately prepare lil selfie for both UPpity and Downity in both psychological and financial ways.



In my humble bumble opinion, not getting a new ATH in this calendar year does not necessarily trigger that we are in a bear market, even if it may well take the bull market much longer than expected to play out.  There are powerful forces that could keep this bad boy down for way longer than many of the HODLers would prefer, and may well even cause a decent amount of shakening of more weak hands.  I am not very likely to change my strategy, even if it could take 18 more months to get to a new ATH.. sure an outlier scenario.. but I am pretty much o.k. and prepared financially and psychologically with "riding this pig wherever it takes me" (right billyjoelallen?)



Sure .. good to be able to reassess.


I am glad that you feel that you are functioning at a decently high level.


I take supercycle theories with a pretty damned large grain of salt.. and sure there are various scenarios that such supercycle theories could happen, and until they do, we have our already currently existing and seemingly valid BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption, and those are not broken, as far as I can tell. and supercycle is already kind of contained therein.. within the exponential s-curve adoption portion of the three-way combo... no need to get into specific sorcery status when the models already exist and I personally give few shits about specifics while riding this pig.


Yes... you be crazy.



Bitcoin is not gold.



I am glad that you are keeping these matters in mind but not allowing them to change too much in what you are doing.


Fuck altcoins.. but whatever do what you do.


I surely get the lump sum investing thesis.

Let's say that you had $20k extra dollars, and when the BTC price was at $10k, you decided to use half of it to buy bitcoin at $10k and then somewhere along the line you noticed that the price was going up.. so you just decided to wait it out, and the price gets to $65k and then crashes back down to $30k.. so at some point in the $30k to $40k price arena, you might decide to put your other $10k in.. or maybe $5k or maybe in the past 10 months, you got another $10k of extra cash, so then you have $20k... so you just put $10k in or you put the whole $20k in .. Guys are going to come to differing conclusions about how to play it and I would likely divide such stash into the three categories of 1) DCA, 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips... So, I am not even sure which method would play out better over time, but each of us pick a method that is comfortable for our own situation.


If you are saying drop 50% again from $47,300?  At this particular time, I would give that about a 25% chance of happening in this calendar year, rather than a 10% chance.. but whatever...  we are not too far apart on that one.


Sure, that is how you roll and how you play your cards, and if it works for you, then so be it.. I am not saying it is necessarily a worse way of going about things, even though sometimes I am not really clear what you mean or how it might apply to a normie, but no problema if it has worked for you and seems to be continuing to work for you.


Do you believe that your method (level of lunacy) is easy to learn?  Asking for a friend?

 



We are all weird, once you get to know us.



Of course, there is some purposefull playing of these kinds of weak hands and lack of preparedness for either price direction.


For sure, you were likely a minority.. because a lot of peeps said that they had not expected anything like that.

Of course, the way my system works, I was buying all the way down from about $55k to about $29k.. but still not comfortable, even though I had buy orders down to about $15k.. but the level of how far my buy orders went down, too based on some projects that I had entered into.. so still waiting to tell that story since I am still moving around value for the past 3 months.. blah blah blah.


It always seems to be better to be ahead of the game, if you can.. so if you have decent levels of confidence then the price just will end up coming to you, and sure it could take a while to play out and I doubt that there won't need to be some shaking in confidence, but sure, you might have orders that largely stay in place or you just make some minor tweaks here and there or alternatively, you have to wait for once scenario to play out before you set up your orders for the following scenario, but still the price is coming to you so you are less emotional about the whole matter.


You are starting to sound like me with some of those whimpy percentages that you are throwing out...

 


Fair enough.



Lovely hat.  

... they also rely on electricity supply, about ~25% of the heat shifted is consumed in electricity for the best efficiency pumps.

... if it is mission critical to keep the heat flowing probably plan on back-up generation in case of main/grid electrical failure

A Geo one *will* work in lower temperatures as it draws heat from underground as opposed to air. Much better system to be honest.

Now that I think about it maybe I should replace my natural gas unit with a geothermal. I wonder if it's worth it. Hm......

Explanation

Yeah, efficiency drops off quickly the lower the temps but they have made serious gains in efficiency the last few years. My intent would be to replace the ac units and have it to augment the furnace. I haven't decided whether to get a geo one or not.

Depends on the freedom. You're free to wander out into the world and starve to death. You'll never be free from the laws of thermodynamics.