Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4934. (Read 26608364 times)

Explanation

Amount of Bitcoins you need to become a millionaire:

2010: 2000000 BTC
2015: 4000 BTC
2020: 85.61 BTC
Today: 22.72 BTC
2025: 5 BTC

Fill those 5 BTC bag and wait just more 4 years.
Do not believe on me, believe on the stats.

Have a good day ahead.  

Ooooow already between now and 20y thats fast…. 

https://twitter.com/sophiamzaller/status/1425841088791781381?s=21

I think it might do 10x by 2041, or $10m. No maths, just gut feel. (and laser eyes)

Nope, looks good to me. Haven't checked the math (better things to do with my time), but looks about right to me 
Sticking with a long-term MA as support is a smart move. Everything else in between in simply noise.
Still think $1m can be hit sooner than 2041, but conservative analysis I like  

ELI5

The Dude = ready

Golden cross likely to happen tomorrow.



@RyanRozbiani
The last time BTC golden crossed we went from 9,500 to 64,900. Are we about to golden cross again? #BTC
https://twitter.com/ryanrozbiani/status/1425667328935702529?s=21




I’ll take another 7 x price increase from here before New Year

proof of stab algo?  meh sheeple

I made up a saying years ago I wanted to put on bumper stickers.

We don't need Freedom of religion, We need Freedom FROM religion!

Shed is in the spot>




Too hot to fuck with inside shots. I will do some later.

Ok....  Here it is. By popular demand:

First of all some underlying presumptions that can be individually tweaked is that $2 million is entry level fuck you status, and that in order to prepare for inevitable ongoing BTC volatility, we try to consider the value of our wealth (that is kept in bitcoin) based on reasonable (but still potentially extreme) BTC bottom prices.

Since I am presuming that currently we are in a bull market and BTC price are actually nearly 3x above the 208-week moving average (208-week moving average is about $14,500 as I type - and current price is $44k-ish), I am using the 104-week moving average as our BTC price starting point, and then projecting a 20% per year price increase in the 208-week moving average (and sure 20% per year is conceded to be fairly aggressive in terms of the increase per year and may need to be accounted for in the event that the 208-week moving average ends up underperforming those kinds of tentative BTC price bottom appreciation expectations)..  

Based on our current 3x price above the 208-week moving average..including that we are likely currently in a bull market for anywhere between 5 months to 16 months longer, I am also presuming that at some point (perhaps within 6 to 12 months) the 208-week moving average will catch up to the current projection in the chart, even though I had started the projection from a wee bit above the 104-week moving average (starting at $22k and the 108-week moving average is about $21,300... as I type this post)

Even though I like to use the 208-week moving average as the anticipated overall low BTC price points in all markets, I am currently considering the 104-week moving average to be a decent tentative accurate guide to the BTC bottom price when we are in bull markets (if it is possible to reasonably assess when we might be in bull markets - including the tentative conclusion that now we are within such a bull market).

Note.. I removed some of the dates/prices in the middle of the below chart for ease of management/formatting (and then dates that remained in the chart were including 4-year and 10-year increments).

Start $                               StartDate                        % gain /time                   Time (every 6 months)                    Goal
$22,000.00                          8/12/21                         10.00%                            182.6 (days)                                       $2,000,000
            
   Date                                    BTC bottom Price               gain/time                               BTC#/Goal
                                             (Extreme=not likely)
   8/12/21                               $22,000.00                        $2,200.00                              90.90909091
   2/10/22                               $24,200.00                        $2,420.00                             82.64462810
   8/12/22                               $26,620.00                        $2,662.00                             75.13148009
   2/10/23                               $29,282.00                        $2,928.20                             68.30134554
   8/12/23                               $32,210.20                        $3,221.02                             62.09213231
   2/11/24                               $35,431.22                        $3,543.12                             56.44739301
   8/11/24                               $38,974.34                        $3,897.43                             51.31581182
   2/10/25                               $42,871.78                        $4,287.18                             46.65073802
   8/11/25                               $47,158.95                        $4,715.90                             42.40976184
   [edited out 2026-2028]
   2/10/29                               $91,899.46                        $9,189.95                             21.76291358
   8/11/29                               $101,089.41                        $10,108.94                             19.78446689
   2/10/30                               $111,198.35                        $11,119.83                             17.98587899
   8/11/30                               $122,318.18                        $12,231.82                             16.35079908
   2/10/31                               $134,550.00                        $13,455.00                             14.86436280
   8/12/31                               $148,005.00                        $14,800.50                             13.51305709
   2/10/32                               $162,805.50                        $16,280.55                             12.28459736
   8/11/32                               $179,086.05                        $17,908.60                             11.16781578
   2/9/33                               $196,994.65                        $19,699.47                             10.15255980
   8/11/33                               $216,694.12                        $21,669.41                             9.22959982
       [edited out 2034-2036]
   2/9/37                               $422,275.53                        $42,227.55                             4.73624407
   8/11/37                               $464,503.09                        $46,450.31                             4.30567643
      [edited out 2038-2040]
   2/9/41                               $905,185.11                        $90,518.51                             2.20949282
   8/11/41                               $995,703.62                        $99,570.36                             2.00862983
    [edited out 2042-2044]
   2/9/45                               $1,940,344.68                        $194,034.47                             1.03074470
   8/10/45                               $2,134,379.14                        $213,437.91                             0.93704064

Any questions?  Did I miss some obvious problematic areas?  Sure maybe presuming 20% per year appreciation in the 208-week moving average is relatively safe, but perhaps in later years (after 2033 or so), maybe it would be more safer to reduce the 20% per year appreciation projection.. perhaps?  perhaps?

I answered you directly regarding the lack of resistance maybe not being so clear-cut as you might have thought  


Hope that answers your curiosity. Price is otherwise beginning to test my local pocket of "triple support confluence" on the 4hr, so nothing to panic about...




Respect

Explanation

If you trade:

LONG BTC; Current Price: $44208

Thank me later.  

If I'm not mistaken, JayJuanGee uses something like the 200 week moving average for his estimate. So by the time Bitcoin reaches that, peaks could be much higher.

10 years to 148K/btc??? since when did you become so bearish?

10 months now.. i can see that as a fairly reasonable guess (SOMA analysis mode of course)

It's never a straight line.

Explanation