Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5007. (Read 26608419 times)

Or not.

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I've heard of the death cross before, but what's a golden cross? Sounds yummy

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Chart buddy interrupt

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Great analysis +5WO merits (Fillipone has been too generous last month, Filippone cannot handle his merits stash and he’s out of merits for next week).

Regarding PlanB, his charts have nothing to do with adoptions. They are competing observed price with a protocol induced-intrinsic feature of Bitcoin: Stock to flow.

All I know about stock to flow is here:

Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

Regarding PlanB himself… when he now says, “like clockwork” hasn’t to be meant literally, as price is quite off, by historical means, from model price: terrible buying opportunity or model next to breaking?

Oh boy, my spider sense tell me it’s the former!

july 2021 - failed✖ 

merited and applauded, always spot on my friend

It's true though. 4 is supposed to be the number of death. The Chinese among us will confirm it (I'm not Chinese myself, but have Chinese friends who've told me so). Interestingly, you will notice that Asian products often skip "4" in a series of models. For example, in the digital camera market, there was the Canon PowerShot G1, G2, G3, then the G5. There was no G4... Is Canon's leadership superstitious? I don't think so, they're too smart to be, but some of their dumb customers may well be, hence the avoidance of "4". For the same reason, there is often no "Room 13" or "13th Floor" in hotels. It's the same reason why the politicians and military leaders always go to church in public, and strictly follow religious protocols, although they may actually be atheists. They just want to keep the flock happy.

If you ask me, the above mentality is totally stupid, and can even partly explain the anti-vax craze, but I won't go there. To each their own. Life goes on, science/technology advances, some adapt, survive and prosper, others get stuck in their old ways, wear their tin-foil hats and watch Fox News and Alex Jones. Come to think of it, it's a wonderful, self-adapting process, which ultimately promotes the survival of the fittest. There is no need for governments to force anything to anyone. I oppose compulsory vaccinations. Just allow everyone to freely decide what to do, and let the viruses themselves do the hard work.

$55k is better than $44k for sure. And it certainly is a matter of "when" rather than "if". And an UPpity is more likely too, from where we currently stand. And I can also agree that $44k and $55k could in fact be so close to each other that attaining one could quickly lead to the other and the next double digit in the sequence, until there is a need for a third digit, and, before we know it, the counter is reset to $111k. My antennae pick a triple-$k digit price in 2022, which would be awesome and could lead to some major priority shuffling among many of us.

"When", not "if". Those who get it will survive and prosper, those who don't will be left behind and stay poor until they die.

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It's crazy how people were waiting for 20k BTC when it dropped to 28, now they are buying at 40. Sick!

Here are links for the same article and you could probably find some details here:

Advertise on google

Google new crypto policy

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The current situation reminds me so much of the spring of 2017. Then the leading exchange Bitfinex had problems with the banks and the fiat withdrawals were suspended for 3 months. The users converted usdt to BTC and reversed the trend from negative to positive. Because of that they didn't convert back to fiat and the price went from below 1K up to nearly 3K. Now the leading exchange Binance has similar issues, although withdrawals are not banned. But nontheless the users prefer to convert usdt to BTC and leave the exchange because of the coming derivate suspension and because of the fiat limits/fees and difficulties related to usdt wallets. And since the trend has changed, they won't convet back to usd or usdt on other exchanges immediately. This may turn to be a major boost for this bull run, since it is not caused only by the whales but from millions of users around the world.

Another factor for the current bull run is that many peeps  sold at  30K with the intention to buy at 20K and even lower. Now they see this plan didn't work so they have no choice but to buy higher.

And of course the mass adoption explosion is also an important factor. The number of BTC users has doubled in the last 6 months, adding 2 mil per day new users. According to 2 surveys I've read, the percentage of users has increased from 1% to 2% worldwide only in the last 6 months. The previous doubling needed 10 months. And we are still far far away from the real mass adoption above 80%, which will happen in the coming years. The same exact numbers apply for the institution adoption. So, as good the current situation might be, we can expect much higher prices in the next 5-10 years. The only problem which can delay this increase with up to one cycle is the large scale derivate manipulation, which we've seen in 2018-2020 and the last 2 months. Wall Street shorting companies are certainly the biggest enemy of any asset. But they can't handle the BTC 24/7/365 trading and the limited supply. So at some point their shorts will be liquidated no matter how hard they dump on the spot market. The price tends to return to the fair levels corresponding to the mass adoption with bull cycles which blow away the shorters. We see how fast the options to get BTCs are miltiplying. This leads to an increasing rate, so I would expect reaching the 80% level much sooner than we think. And if the current fair price should be around 50K-100K, then it should be 40x higher - 2-4mil. Of course, this is just an opium, there will be many FUDs and bans along the way. But still it is good to be prepared somehow if we know in general what is going to happen sometime in the near future.

Edit. This prediction corresponds to PlanB, which as far as I know is based mainly on the adoption levels.

#bitcoin July closing price $41,490 ... it bounced from the lows, like clockwork

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1421725631365238785

You only need to hold btc or stack sats and make yourself more strong and others don't stand any odds to win against it.