Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 507. (Read 26713551 times)

^^These time ranges were a little artificial.
Gold made a high in Sept 1980 at $843 (worth $1849 in dollar buying power in 2000 when gold was just $263.8 at the lows).
https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price-history
So...gold LOST 1- 263.8/1849=0.86=86% of it's buying power in those 20 years.

From 2000 to now...gold went from 263.8 to 2513; however, 263.8 in 2000 is equal to 480.81 now, so gold went up 5.23X in 24 years or 7.14% per year, inflation adjusted.
But, the kicker is this: $843 in 1980 is equal to $3371 in 2024.
https://www.saving.org/inflation/inflation.php?amount=843&year=1980&toYear=2024
Therefore, over the last 44 years even gold did not outperform inflation (did worse than inflation), albeit gold did better than inflation in the last 24 years.

Of course, bitcoin VASTLY outperformed both gold and inflation in the last 15 years.
That said, the likelier scenario would be for bitcoin to outperform gold going forward just because bitcoin is roughly 1/18-1/20 of the gold value aka relatively tiny.
However, this depends on inflation.
Many people thought that gold under-performed inflated dollar in 1980-2000 because of a large deflation flux caused by the rise of China/cheap manufacturing.
If AI would play a similar role going forward, we might switch from high inflation (currently) to an outright deflation (at least in the cost of goods).

Therefore, a long bear market in bitcoin (and gold) is possible, starting in a few years (2029-2030?), perhaps, but right now bitcoin is still too small for this to happen, imho.

PAVEL DUROV is free.
Bail set at 5 millions € and cannot leave french territory till the trial.

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Definitely inflation but for example store brands are 3-4 times cheaper than Heinz (which it owns).
A HUGE difference.
I avoid Heinz products these days. Just ridiculous.
£4 buys a good quality hand crafted tomato sauce at a local fair.
Not worth the mass produced red schlop that comes out of Warren Buffet's inflated ass.

First I am not a gold fan.

and as for eating lunch last 15 years.

lets look into 2009 to 2024 marketcaps

jan 2009 btc lets say 1,000 usd at less than 1 penny a coin
aug 2024 btc lets say 1,200,000,000,000 usd at 60,000 a coin

so 1000 to 1.2 trillion in ratio is great but in total value it gained 1.2 trillion

what was gold in jan 2009 822 price about  5.6 trillion with an estimated range of 4.3 trillion to 6.5 trillion


was was gold in august 2024 2519 price cap of 17.2 trillion with a estimated range of 13.6t to 20.4t


so yeah btc went up from a cap of 1000 usd to 1.2 trillion in 15 years.

and gold went up from 4.3 / 6.5 trillion to 13.6t/20.4t


so yeah price wise btc was a penny  and gold was 822 usd in 2009

and at 60,000 to 2,500 price wise btc whaled smoked crushed gold.

but total value gold gained far more maybe 9trillion to 1trillion.

and gold will not lose value if mining stops
while btc will lose value if mining stops.

So we can brag and love our btc .  and I hold a good amount of it. but don't think gold is losing in terms of market cap it is still gaining every year.

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There surely are some problems in your thinking Philip.  You seem to be wanting to tie too many parallels to things that you know, yet your conclusions seem to inadequately account for bitcoin's paradigm-shifting properties.

Yeah, there are likely powers that be who are going to try to contain and control bitcoin, and sure they might have moments of seeming success, and even some of the characteristics  of stable coins seems to be transitioning into CBDC lites.. with various kinds of increasing government controls, and maybe even some back doors.. considering tether..and some of the taming going on with Binance and its various products. 

Bitcoin seems to complex to try to completely pigeonhole, and of course, bitcoin shares some properties with gold, even though bitcoin is around 1000x or more better than gold, so we should be attempting to account for that too..

And yeah various financial products attempt to dilute bitcoin's supply, and I am not even going to claim to know about all the various ways that coins are both faked and that the faking may or may not be able to have some short-term success versus just continuing to experience various kinds of dancing and blowing up (maybe even behind the scenes) from time to time.

Even with all the attempts at analyzing bitcoin from a variety of parameters and attempts at changing frameworks, we don't really have any evidence that bitcoin has even fallen outside of the 4 year fractal pattern, so that even if the slopes of the exponential growth periods might feel or seem to be increasingly less and less exponential and more gradual, the powers of ongoing adoption, Metcalfe principles and network effect continue to dominate even if some folks might try to put bitcoin into some other framework, which the gold one is additionally offensive since gold is largely ongoingly demonetizing (including that gold was continuing to go through such demonetizing throughout the period that you pointed out 90s, 00s through present) as bitcoin is monetizing, and sure maybe some folks consider that gold is going to remonetize, that just does not seem to be gold's fate, especially when accounting for bitcoin having had been eating gold's lunch in the past 15-ish years, and likely continuing to do so for the next 50-200 years, even while there may continue to be uncertainties in the movement during periods that we are caught within such movements (and hopefully we are mostly holding and accumulating bitcoin rather than taking other actions to deplete our holdings).

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OT:

Ok, so Berkshire Hathaway's stock nearly tripled (2.7X !!) since the bottom of 2020, while the major economies of the world crumbled and saw massive layoffs, pullbacks, and out-of-control inflation.

In just 4 years.

Holy fk, that's HUGE.

By any definition, that is textbook runaway hyperinflation.

If from here their stock doubles or (god forbid) triples again by 2028, massive hyperinflation will all but be confirmed.

People should be worried, but apparently they're too busy filming TikTok twerking and silly dances.  

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buddy you suck

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Maybe.

 I tell you this BTC seems to be stuck in a track and it is getting to look like the 1989 to 2005 gold track

year--- low--- high

1989---358---417
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004--373---455

2005--411---537
2006--520---725
2007--608---841
2008--692---1,023


gold tracked in a slot for over 15 years and breakout started in 2005

  Is btc going to track like this 30-70k for a dozen years.  
 The only thing pointing against this is mining just adds gear and grows like mad.
REAL btc Coins don't grow like mad anymore, but fake coins grow a lot.

It feels like BTC is tied into a slot

i hear the fishing is awesome

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We will go up in about 6 hours, when Nvidia posts +- 10% up on target earnings.

Probably back to 64K I guess.

So stupid.