I have my doubts that there is any necessity for me to respond to any of your particular pieces of analysis, since I am not really sure if you are saying anything with any level of conviction, except that maybe you consider the odds for having a downward correction are greater than they had been earlier because of a failure to break to the upside - yet you are not even saying that with any level of meaningful conviction or specifics - except that certain lower levels might happen - and surely, I am willing to stick with a bet that I had earlier stated, which is that the BTC price will likely not get lower than 20% higher than the 200-WMA.. and sure yeah there could be breakouts to the top or the bottom, and I had largely just been proclaiming $55k to $82k to be no man's land.. causing a certain increased level of probability that the breakout is going to be towards the top rather than the bottom, but it is not like certainty, so maybe slightly greater than 55% odds.. add 2.5% odds since we are generally in a bull market and add an additional 2.5% odds since we are in no man's land, but that still only gets us to 45/55 rather than 50/50 odds or something other than that, and so that might not even give us anything that is bettable.. even you did not come back to suggest some kind of potential bettable terms when we dropped below $60k the last time.. around April 29 that lasted ONLY slightly less than 3 days.
I mean I can hardly see any changes to the conditions from the mere fact that BTC prices have largely been bouncing around at the top of the range between about $60k and $70k for the past 3.5 months-ish and yeah there may or may not be further consolidation.. and it hardly matters except that I am a wee bit surprised that we are hanging out in no man's land for quite longer than I thought, but it is not even like the upward's inclinations of noman's land and/or the greater chances of less resistance give any certainties regarding what might end up happening, since we recognize and appreciate that less likely scenarios can end up playing out, and less likely scenarios end up playing out a lot of times, which make them hardly tradeable and hardly bettable, except maybe considering some of the extremes might become bettable, for example if you are going to want to bet me that the BTC price is going to get below 20% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, or if you want to bet me that BTC prices are not going to end up touching somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, or if you want to bet me that the high price for 2025 is not going to be higher than the high price for 2024. .and yeah I don't have great confidence in ay of these propositions, except that I would be willing to bet them in terms of their being greater than 50/50.. and even with that I understand that I might not end up winning the bet, even though they seem bettable from my perspective and it would be interesting if someone, like you, might be willing to take the opposite side of such potential bets..
Correct, at present with price range between $60K and $70K, I'm not particularly convinced about any considerable downside or upside for that matter, until the range is broken at least - which could take another few months at current pace. Even if I'm more 55/45 siding with downside. You're suggestion of a bet of not reaching 20% higher than the 200 WMA is an interesting one though, as at present that would be a correction to $43,090 (35909 x 1.2), as opposed to sub $40K, which is approximately the area I imagine support would be found given a deeper correction. Based on current linear trajectory, that would be around $40K for the MA within the next few months (*at current prices that is), which would mean reaching $48K at +20%. Although notably the trajectory is currently set to slow it's pace in approx 10 weeks as it starts to knock out $20K to 60K candles, this wouldn't take effect (*) until mid August. So overall, that'd be a lot fairer bet for me that the idea of sub $40K by the end of the year, quite clearly. I'm otherwise confident that price in 2024 will be higher than 2024, so no bet from me regarding that. But also, as referenced, until we're back down to $60K then I only really see further range-bound accumulation and distribution.
Overall my general theory is that
if $60K support is broken again, that $50K levels won't hold and we'll return to volume support / opening price around $40K, or otherwise around the 200 WMA if it catches up by then. I'd like to believe the theory that ETF buyers are strong hands, but given we've already seen outflows during bearish price movements (even if not very consistently), I suspect the floodgates of sellers will open below $60K. As even if you bought the ETF at $50K that's still a 25% return, which compared to most other ETFs, it's considerable. For BTC, it's obviously very little.
