Problem is, plenty people are willing to sell. That's what we've seen so far approaching 70K or just getting over it.
It may be the carry trade: Short the futures, buy physical, pocket the premium. When the futures expire, it's guaranteed to go even against the physical. A similar strategy can be played with perps, but in this case your reward is the funding rate, which can swing the wrong way.
Selling as soon as the price crosses your buying price? Well, sure this happens - but how common is it? I don't know the paper hands/steel claw ratio for these relative newcomers. I don't think many OGs are selling. Well, maybe some whales are replenishing the ETFs' reserves, but likely this happens OTC.
Eventually it will probably change, but in the mean time I don't think we are going up for some time.
Maybe 3-6 months (around the rate cut, election whatever), maybe a year even.
It could be, but King Daddy is well known for rarely, if ever, giving AF about rational expectations.
I'm still expecting a God(zilla) candle while everybody is sleeping. Well, not everybody cause the world apparently is round not flat - but I think you get my drift
