Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5355. (Read 26708363 times)

Explanation

Nice one ChartBuddy...

Had to merit you for that innovative demonstration of NON-bottedness.

 

(one bot to another... nanu nanu)...



Who knows for sure about all these amorphous thoughts about the motives of one nation versus another, even though there should have been a decent amount of attention gotten from national security concerns for any country who becomes way too dependent upon goods and services being controlled out of one jurisdiction... and who knows what kinds of shenanigans happen sometimes when there might have been inadequate attention to various supply chain issues and then questions regarding whether the supply chains are really in such vulnerable states or are they being manipulated in ways to appear that they are more vulnerable than they really are.


His earlier debt instruments had 5 years (which would be about 4.5 years from now), and this one seems to have something like 7 years to pay back, so it would be one thing if the BTC price dumps below $20k in the short term, but when the notes start getting close to coming due, then at that point, there would need to some concern if the BTC price were still below the purchase price, such as below $20k, but seems to me to be a pretty damned good bet that BTC prices will be above his average BTC purchase prices plus the interest on any of the debt instruments.  So accordingly, if he were to get his latest BTC in the lower $30ks- let's say between $30k and $35k, then I think that the odds are pretty good for either timeline that the BTC price will be well above $35k in both 4.5 years from now, and also 7 years from now.. and surely there should be enough time to make some adjustments, but if shit is just spiraling downwardly (what are the odds?), then surely the company could be in trouble.  Of course, we do not know the future, but does not seem to be a bad bet for a company like MSTR in terms of its already existing assets, cashflow and its likely continued cashflow and other ameliorating steps that it can take in the next 4.5 years to 7 years in connection with its debt instruments.

Explanation

the evening wall report


Bitcoin has bounced back towards $33kish after the last couple of sessions have been filled with heavy distribution. Significant volume towards the closing bell pushed the daily candle towards a red dragonfly formation with a support resistance zone establishing around $33.5k.

 
#dyor

4h



D

#stronghands

Always wondered that myself actually. I miss the mayor's colorful posts.
All my favorite wo bros seem to have gone bye bye.
Time marches on.
Damn I'm getting old.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ciq0wlhwUVw

gemini offers currently 7.4% on their pegged gemini dollar (GUSD) Earn thingie and 2.05% on the BTC version. a quick look mentions its DeFi based and you more or less assume the risk even though coinbase does vett the party used. so they say. you allocate some/all of your BTC/GUSD/whatever to Earn and let it do its thing. it can take a few days to pull it out however.

i tossed some into it to see what happens.

oh buddy here you come again.

would prefer to see you more often if we go back over 50k

Explanation

History is surely no guarantee of future performance, even though historically speaking, holding any bitcoin for any time in its history has been profitable (except for the past 4 months). In other words, our current price of $33.6k is higher than any historical bitcoin price, except for the past 4 month.

Regular individuals have investment funds that vary between $1k and $10 million, so .1% could still add up to decent quantity of allocation for those who are in the higher endowed arenas, and maybe there becomes quite a bit more justification for smaller level investors (let's say anyone below $100k) to be more tolerant of more aggressive percentages of their investment allocations in fewer asset classes - and fewer justifications to diversify beyond perhaps 10 asset classes probably even fewer asset classes, if your whole investment portfolio is less than something like $20k.

I look at my own investment history of maybe around 35 years, and I see the first 10 or more years as having a lot of what seems to be punching into the air and some difficulties in really building a decently sized investment portfolio.. - and maybe I can blame it on NOT receiving any kind of inheritance or financial help from rich acquaintances/family (maybe most people are on their own in that regard?), but there is almost a level of patheticness in the size of my investment portfolio in those first 10 years, even though I proclaimed to have been building it and building it during that time, but I also recall having hardly any diversity in my investment portfolio for well over 10 years because so frequently I felt that there would have been quite a bit of dilution to attempt to divide up my investment portfolio, but there were no kinds of investments that I held were so easy to get into and out of as bitcoin either  (so surely if shitcoins are actually nearly as easy as bitcoin to get into and out of, I am not going to even go there in terms of addressing that issue of newbies getting purged from even being able to build a meaningful base because so many shitcoins likely tempt so many newbies, young investors and those with little capital to put too much of their principle at risk, so they might never build principle that ever graduates their investment holdings to an above mediocre status in terms of value).


Maybe that is why I like you so much, Oro.. even while disagreeing with your gold inclinations in terms of your considering yourself as lucky in so many regards, and personally I feel the same way about myself.  Many of us know that expression that luck is where preparation meets opportunity, so each of us likely had some preparations in terms of experiencing our various kinds of luck, so just being in a kind of right place at the right time meant that we had to have already been dabbling a bit in something related to bitcoin to be able to recognize a kind of opportunity that was available and also to be able to act upon it.

For me, I had been dabbling so much with various kinds of relatively inferior investments, and probably my tweaking around with those systems caused me to be in a position to find, notice and be receptive to getting involved in BTC by the time that I started buying in late 2013.

One funny angle remains that I can recall being quite enthusiastic about telling friends and acquaintances about bitcoin starting in late 2014 - but so many seemed to feel sorry for me during that time and probably even up until late 2016 for my having letting them know that my BTC holdings had been quite a bit in the red for a while during that time and even arguably into 2016, and then feeling sorry for me for having had spent so much time "playing around" with BTC including studying the matter and creating trading systems, and even when my BTC holdings began to become more profitable by the time early 2017 came, there were still some concerns expressed by others that I was not using my resources very well in terms of investing into BTC and NOT having a whole hell of a lot to show for it... so there is some luck with my continuing in a kind of BTC "stick-with-it-ness" during that period of time. .. although I will admit that I did start to get quite a bit more cocky about my BTC holdings and systems by the time mid-2016 came - even though my holdings could not really be argued to be much more than flat (at least they were not in the red anymore), and even though in BTC we had some pretty decent challenges in late 2016 starting from about August or so and lasting several months due to the 119k BTC that were supposedly hacked from Bitfinex and dropped the BTC price from the mid $700s down to $500 and then kind of got stuck in the lower $600s for a while before creeping back up in price, and I did continue to increase my bits of cockiness during that time as the BTC price was recovering from that Bitfinex purported "hackening" situation.. even though the road was not clear and deep on the inside I also considered myself as lucky to not get shaken in any kind of meaningful or material way.


I will leave you to your own calculations regarding that assessment of what you purport to be meaningful.      


Well, regarding HODLing more than the Average Joe, that's a pretty damned low bar.  #justsaying.

Regarding the HODLings of the average WO, we should speculate that those HODLings gotta be a whole hell of a lot higher on average than regular peeps or even forum members as a whole..

Average WO members should be more bitcoin emphasizing and less inclined towards shitcoins, so just forget about the shitcoin HODLings, and if we are just pondering over BTC HODLings, there is probably a pretty decent sized spread in HODLings.. maybe between zero and thousands, but the average is going to be way closer to lower levels.. and really hard to know.

Some of us have proclaimed that we are not even going to admit if we have reached the new entry level number of 0.21BTC.. and of course, working our way up from there should not be a bad thing.  so maybe following would be trying to reach 1 BTC, then 2BTC then 10BTC, then 21 BTC and so forth and so forth.. and surely it is even getting more difficult to reach 1 BTC, even though Mindrust did say that he had reached 10 BTC (in March 2020) right before he sold all of them, supposedly and also he said that he had bought back 1BTC during the fall out from that purported sale.

Many of us have asserted that 10 BTC would be a decent quantity to have, and we would not necessarily stop trying to build our stash if we were to be able to reach such a stash size, and so a lot of what we do might have to do where we at in regards to a lot of our individual factors.

Actually the goal of getting to 0.21 BTC is becoming may more reachable at current prices of $33,500, so that would be a wee bit more than $7k to get to that 0.21BTC level at current prices.



That does not really sound very unique.



That does not sound very unique, either.



I am not even sure if that was actually good investment advice.  I have heard variations of that rationale several times in order to justify why some peeps were failing/refusing to buy BTC - because they claim to NOT understand it.

Do any of us understand it?  Sure we try to reach some balance in terms of not overdoing it, but some people use such rationales in order to NOT invest at all or to invest too whimpily.


Can't fight you on that one.


This is a nice place to share and steal ideas to incorporate as your own.. and it can take a while to learn or to be receptive to learning.

It's quite funny how much certain Warren Buffet principles have infiltrated into my own investment approach, but still I have been buying bitcoin and he never did get into bitcoin (at least so far and he is almost old enough to be dead, so I would not expect him to see much if any value in buying into BTC right now, even though he does seem to be a kind of guy that will be investing until he keels over.. while eating at McDonalds).... hahahaha..   Another thing about Warren Buffet is that he stays active in terms of investing and staying involved in the decisions of his investment group, and personally, I am thinking that I am not really interested to do anything like that, although I do have a project that I am still considering.. that would probably create more work on me... so maybe the fact that my theoretical project might cause more work no me, might cause me to NOT do it, even though there is some kind of desire for me to create something that allows me to potentially channel my coins (or put them to work) even beyond my death.... so not necessarily easy to create systems that can possibly be passed on and continue to live beyond the inspiration of the one who created it (in my case, somewhat hypothetically at this point).

There has been a more recent discussion about BlockFi.

Saylor proposes that no Bitcoin hodler will ever need to sell. They can just get a loan at 4% annual interest on their bitcoin holdings which is better than inflation while you still have your underlying bitcoins for when you pay off the fiat loan (which is likely worth a lot more).

Makes sense. Still risky though. He says to only take a loan and put it into something that will likely gain in value more than the interest rate.

M. Saylor move...wow, but they are SENIOR notes and HIGH YIELD (aka "junk") at 6.125% interest.
6.125% interest on 500mil is 30.625 mil yearly interest. MSTR has only 81 mil EBITDA.
Basically, it is an "all in" kind of move.
Senior bondholders are in a pole position to get everything the company holds in a hypothetical case of a company going bankrupt...for example by not being able to service it's debts.

Next earnings report will be not good:
"The Tysons Corner, Virginia-based company said in a filing Monday that it’s taking a roughly $284.5 million charge during its next earnings report due to losses related to fluctuations in the price of the digital asset. That amounts to more than the company’s cumulative earnings since 2011."

Hopefully, WS would treat it as one-off.
This is potentially dangerous for the long term company survival, UNLESS he has some ace up his sleeve, and maybe he has, at least i hope so.

I was listening to an episode of "What Bitcoin Did" while out running the other day and noted that BlockFi is one of its sponsors (they offer fiat loans to borrowers with btc as collateral and also interest-bearing bitcoin accounts). I thought there had been some discussion on these hallowed pages about BlockFi in the past, or perhaps it was something similar, but a quick search came up with only the above discussion.  Which led me to have a few questions...

1. keeping in mind the obvious mantra of 'not your keys, not your coins' and considering the risk of such DeFi groups going under, I was wondering what WOers think of putting a small percentage of your coins into such an interest bearing account?

2. does Elwar think BlockFi or similar entities are now more reliable now that three years have passed?

3. wtf happened to Rosewater Foundation?

I'm far from convinced but it would be nice to get my coins working for me (in terms of increasing their number) instead of just sitting there looking good (and increasing in fiat terms but not in number). But the thought of not having my coins' keys sends me into a cold sweat....

Just got home from my second printing attempt, tweeked the settings and added a raft, this time it seems to have worked, cleaned it but was to tired to snip the supports and cure it, will do that tomorrow.





Good night guys and bots.

I want money, The Flying Lizards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVuSYUNAekc

Explanation

1.6billion is surprising, and good to see, I wonder when all those Bitcoin ETF approval dates are.

Saylor is putting himself in a hell of a position here still I think. If the price does dump below 20k he will have to be in trouble.

Explanation

GigaChad has spoken




https://t.co/qEhHtJS69Q
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1402368427952640000?s=21

He sold?

EDIT: Wojak will have a hard time. 

Explanation