Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5350. (Read 26708837 times)

Explanation

Explanation

A massive 1% drop during a mind-boggling 20 minutes. There is simply no way Bitcoin ever recovers from such a devastating loss, certainly.

looking for some casascius coins ... would like to visit el salvador

For sure longer term bitcoiners are NOT as likely to get lured into the idea of having to earn interest or whatever other bullshit is being proposed, but surely there are a certain number of them who want to put their bitcoin to work by going through some of the lame ass industries who are largely writing contracts to their favor....

Sure if you are rich as fuck, like Saylor, you can set your own bitcoin leveraging terms and worth those terms to your advantage, so sometimes the comparisons of how someone with a lot of coins might use their coins and someone with a more modest number of coins might use their coins are not appropriate when people are wanting to get into nonsense contracts and the terms are both set by some other entity and they are not necessarily favorable terms or even clearly understood by the person wanting to "make some interest" on their BTC holdings.


For sure, these are tough balancing acts of whether you have enough coins and whether selling any of them is really going to hurt you in meaningful ways.

Sometimes I come to the conclusion that there is way too much pie in the sky proclamations from folks about never selling your bitcoin, and in some of my previous posts, I have provided scenarios in which BTC HODLers could end up meeting and exceeding their BTC accumulation goals so much that the most sensible thing seems to be to shave off some BTC here and there along the way rather than getting involved in some complicated arrangements that may well end up putting way too much risk upon the HODLers.

Of course, having a cushion would likely be helpful, and there are various ways to figure out if you have enough coins or if you really are in a position to be shaving off some coins.

Personally, I believe that there are a few problematic areas that coiners get into, and one of those problematic areas is to price the coins at the high price rather than seriously considering the bottom price as a guideline in terms of both fuck you status and including how many coins would be safe to shave off on a regular basis.   The top price is all fine and dandy, if you are planning to act upon it, but if you are in a kind of fuck you status of withdrawing coins on a regular basis, then you don't want to be overly withdrawing... so personally, I consider the 208-week moving average as a good guide terms of both whether reaching "fuck you" status and also even to place an upper limit on how many coins could be withdrawn on a regular basis.  Currently the 208-week moving average is just reaching $13k.

Let's say for example that your "fuck you" goal is $2million, and the recent price of $64,895 (30.82 BTC) and the current price of about $36k (55.55 BTC) had caused you to consider that you had exceeded your goal because either you hold more than 30.82 BTC in the upper price case or more than 55.55BTC in the current price scenario, so in that case you consider that you could be free to withdraw within your withdraw guidelines... based on your assessment that you need to reach $2million in value.

I personally believe that you are being somewhat irresponsible if you are not using the 208-week moving average or some other measurement that is similarly conservative (does not need to be as conservative as the 208-week moving average that I use).  So anyhow, the 208-week moving average says that you currently better have more than 153.85 BTC ($2million / $13k) to be making your "fuck you" withdrawals, and historically, I was o.k. with using 4% as the guideline for withdrawals, but I have personally moved my withdrawal numbers up to 12%, so long as the various minimum requirements of the 208-week moving average are otherwise met...   So as long as you already have more than 153.85 BTC then you could withdraw up to 12% per year.  

For sure, you can adjust these various criteria however you like in terms of your consideration of the matter, so of course, your fuck you number might be higher or lower than $2million, your way of evaluating whether you reached that minimum threshold might be different than mine as well (you might use the 104-week moving average, for example which is currently approaching $19k as I type) and your percentage of withdrawal might stick closer to the traditional 4% per year consideration that is usually assigned to these kinds of withdrawals - even though I have personally concluded that so long as I am using the 208-week moving average, I believe that bitcoin is going to continue to perform more bullishly than the 4% per year and closer to 12% per year with the using of the 208-week moving average as my  base price to measure from, which means that I expect the 208-week moving average to continue to go up at least 12% per year, and by using the 208-week moving average, and if it is appearing that we are getting close to BTC prices that are less than 12% higher than the 208-week moving average (which currently would be $14,560 - that is $13k x 1.12) and such BTC prices are getting sustained at less than 12% above the current 208-week moving average, then I can see that the 208-week moving average might not be able to meet or exceed the 12% per year price appreciation expectations that I have, and will be able to adjust my projected withdrawal rate downwardly below 12% or even to be more in line with more traditional assessments, but jesus fuck, look at the BTC price in recent times, currently we are about 2.77x above the 208-week moving average, and we reached a peak of about 5x above the 208 week moving average, and we spent the most of the past 4 months between 2.5x and 5x above the 208-week moving average which causes me considerable amount of confidence that BTC prices are going to continue to move up by at least 12% per year from the 208-week moving average into the coming future....

Sure, there is going to come a time in which BTC price crashes down to or even below the 208-week moving average, and so we will need to see what those numbers look like in the future in terms of considering future withdraw rates based on those then existing numbers.  I am currently anticipating that in the coming year or so, the 208-week moving average is going to end up moving to $20k or $30k, so when the extremes of the bear market crash comes in 2022, 2023 or 2024, we will have to see both where is the 208-week moving average at that time, and see whether the crash levels is coming close to the 208-week moving average.  Of course, that number is not set in stone regarding a BTC price floor, but it does seem to be a decently conservative way of considering where the floor is and how the floor is progressing with the passage of time.
 

Yes.. theoretically that is true, but how many coins would you be putting at risk, and do you really need to do that.  My personal opinion is if the ONLY way that you can reach fuck you status is by engaging in that kind of risky behavior with your coins, then you have not reached fuck you status yet and you need a few more coins so that you are not fucking around with that kind of bullshit.   Alternatively, if you are only using 10-20% of your stash for that then sure that might be sustainable by accounting for the fact that you could end up losing all of that 10% to 20% of your stash... .. but ultimately, you can probably see that I am not a fan of such contemplations, unless you are ONLY risking a small amount of your stash - preferably less than 10%.... but whatever, you gonna do what you gonna do.



I believe that is amongst the best of ways for the vast majority of normies.  Don't be overly complexifiening your management of your BTC stash.  

Of course, I understand that you may well not have enough coins based on today's BTC prices, and you do not want to wait one more cycle or whatever it would take for your coins to reach such a status.

There are likely ways that you are within a place where you are very close to being able to do it, but you just have to exercise very modest withdrawal levels for one more cycle, and then if you do not withdraw too many, then BTC may well have appreciated enough that you can really have a sustainable fuck you status at the standard of living that you want to have (or continue to have presumably that you are trying to maintain your current standard of living while living off your coins).



You gotta measure in terms of dollars because the dollar to BTC prices are not stable.  Of course, you can project through the years regarding how many BTC you want to have and how many you need to maintain as a minimum at certain prices and at certain times, and sure at some point, the dollar value of your BTC may become way beyond your minimum fuck you status entry level and maybe even 10x or more that sustainable level that you do not need to measure the dollar value anymore.. I am not really sure about that, but surely seems that if you want to be realistic, you need to be considering both the number of BTC and the dollar value of those BTC in terms of the lowest they might go, current price and projecting into the future.  

If you are overly measuring the value of your BTC and failing and refusing to account for current or projected BTC price volatility, then you may well end up putting yourself in way more psychological and financial stress than you had anticipated that you would have.


If you have low to no fiat cashflow, then of course, your measure of sustainability of your system and even keeping your standard of living or improving your standard of living with the passage of time is going to be based on your measure of expenses and your ability to be able to stay within those expenses.. and most likely those expenses are either priced in dollars or you are getting fucked if you continue to pay the same amount of BTC this year as you did last year for the same good/service.

So, sure you are not able to accumulate more BTC through cashflow and so you are still considering generating cashflow through your BTC or maybe spending fewer of your BTC in order that your stash can stay up high enough in order to be sustainable for your projected timeline.  Of course, all of those factors can be calculated, and hopefully in the end, you are not engaging in any kinds of desperation in terms of overexposing your BTC to some of the bullshit returns when you may well have been better off to shave off a wee bit here and there along the way.. and perhaps shaving off less BTC because you sell that wee bit of BTC at a peak rather than during a dip.  

None of us want to be selling at a time that is other than our own choosing, even though sometimes for the practicality of the matter, it might end up being that we miscalculated and did not sell enough at a top and we are forced to sell more than we wished at a lower price than we had preferred... for sure, these kinds of things can happen... especially when there is a 53% dip that comes during a bull market and during a transition to a supercycle.. if you believe all that bullshit and inadequately prepared because of hype that inevitably happens.

It's always hard to find for me too. Most other places put your avatar next to the link or vice versa.

Hey, it looks like you're too worried and posting too much here trying to spread fud  

If you're so confident about price going to 10k USD, why don't you put all your saving and short BTC?
Easy money

If you do this, everyone will believe you

https://twitter.com/gegelsmr/status/1402689188756176897

They are gonna mine with a VOLCANO.

This. Could. Not. Even. Be. An. Avengers. Movie.

the noon wall report





#dyor

1h



4h

#stronghands

 

Explanation

I like this new trend of the high volume red candles turning into to small crosses at the 15 minute mark, like puny R.I.P. remnants on the bar chart. CCMF!

The selling going on here is spectacular. Country makes bitcoin legal tender. The market shrugs it off and resumes dumping. If that doesn't tell you where bitcoin is ultimately headed, I don't know what else to say. The project is done. We'll be solidly back under $35k by the end of the week.

I guess they don't realize the whole reason this is happening is that THE PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY BEEN USING IT FOR MONTHS!

Such a typical sort of worldview.  Goes with the whole "we have to help the babies" bullshit.  It's the soft bigotry that is based on the idea that Salvadorians are too dumb and poor to use an "expensive first world" tool like bitcoin.

Pisses me off so much.

Like you say though... before they have a chance to say "Bcash" the whole country will have Wallet of Satoshi running.  Faces melted.

By the way, I am opening a 10 million satoshi channel to Wallet of Satoshi and setting the fees to 0/0.

Party's over folks. The eternal Downtrend resumes.

HOT DAMN!  Literally.

I am changing my personal text...  sorry proudhon.

thank you for the courageous, historic and correct step Nayib Bukele


https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoin_/status/1402283494269767681


https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1402524624680886274


https://twitter.com/handsoffmysats/status/1402501153372442626

Source: https://www.telesurenglish.net/analysis/10-of-the-Most-Lethal-CIA-Interventions-in-Latin-America-20160608-0031.html

I'm not surprised.