Agree with JJG @AlcoHoDL, very risky strategy. Any current price is a good price, waiting for it to go lower is just speculating (against a 12-year trend!).
I know that you did not ask me bitebits, but I am having trouble resisting to suggest that any
new money should be considered in three categories and then apportioned accordingly. So there is lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dips. Of course, the apportionment can be made in accordance with personal preferences, yet the initial default position should be 1/3 in each category. Of course, personal circumstances should allow for both not ONLY how much to apportion in each category, but then how to manage such apportionment within the categories in terms of how much, price intervals and time intervals.
So my suggestion is to start with the defaults and then tailorize.
If a person is a no coiner, then it would seem to be smarter
(not saying that no coiners are capable of being smart) to be more aggressive in terms of making sure to get a starting stake in BTC.. whichever categories of achieving the initial allocations, and of course, if someone has been a coiner for a long time, including reaching fairly aggressive accumulation levels of something like 10% or more, then they they would have more psychological and financial liberty to spread out their amounts more and not to be worried if they end up NOT buying more BTC with whatever cash that they have had stumbled across.
Seems to me that AlcoHoDL's cousin is approaching this whole matter as if he is already a coiner with a decent allocation into bitcoin, but whatever, peeps can do whatever they are going to do.. including failing and refusing to appreciate that when they do not make sure that they get a stake into bitcoin, that they already tend to have a lot of other investments (including their income) that is likely already allocated into various kinds of fiat denominations.
That is where you and I disagree or have a different strategy. To me you are just speculating by not investing lump sum. Go ahead and DCA if you can't stomach volatility, but it is a proven sub-optimal strategy versus lump sum. With buying dips you are just trying to outsmart the market. Fine if you like gambling but that has nothing to do with investing.
hahahaha
Say how you really feel, and call me a few names too.. I don't mind. You know that we have had some variation of this conversation in the past, and sure it seems like each of us are sticking to our guns.. however, over the years, I have attempted to provide several hypotheticals in terms of how to attempt to apply such thinking to the actual world.
I am not suggesting that I am any kind of saint nor a symbol of perfection, but it does seem to me that I have attempted to both flesh out hypotheticals while at the same time proclaiming that individuals need to tailor to their own situation. So I am asserting that these three categories should be considered, but I am not even saying that you have to divide into 3 but that is a good starting point and to personally tailor from there.. so it seems to me that I am not even imposing anything on anything - including you.. so in your case, you seem to be suggesting to always set lump sum to 100% and leave DCA and dip buying on zero each.
By the way, bitebits, it might be helpful for you to go into some details with some kinds of hypotheticals in terms of the way the real world works in which people have cashflows, they have other investments that they decide to reallocate, they lump sum amounts that become available and there might be some other categories on the income (cash available side) and we are not even getting into the expenses side, which might merely be considered in opposite ways as cashflow because there are knowns, unknowns and even things that discretionarily come up or come up as kinds of emergencies.
I tried to suggest some variations in which the three components should (or could) be applied including attempting to consider differing ways of considering the matter in the event that the person already owns some bitcoin versus if the person does not have any bitcoin or decides that s/he is under invested in bitcoin.
So, maybe we can work with our example provided courtesy of AlcoHoDL, no?
1) There are three possible categories of coiner-age. No coiner, coiner and under invested coiner. Probably it would be cleaner to presume them to be a no coiner, but there has to be some recognition that having some coins changes the calculations.. so it might not be a bad thing to attempt to address those three categories.
2) AlcoHoDL provided a bit of a presumption that the $12k that is available to cousin is adequate/reasonable. So let's just stick with the presumption that $12k is available right now, and it has been reasonably considered and is not too much and is not too little (in other words such person can afford to lose it, if BTC were to go to zero and they do not need such money for at least 4 years from now)
3) To make this more realistic, let's presume that such person has their shit in order (in terms of adequately understanding their own financial and psychological circumstances) and they have reasonably determined that in the next 4 years, they are able to set aside $500 every two weeks to invest into Bitcoin.. so that would be about $13k per year for the next 4 years but they don't have that money in advance even though they are pretty sure that they are going to be able to earn that amount and have it available for bitcoin above and beyond their various expenses and other prudences within their discretion... I think many people are paid every two weeks, so let's go with the idea of $500 extra every two weeks for simplicity sakes.
4) As far as cashflow goes, we could presume something like once or twice a year, this guy/gal gets some surprise income.. let's just say $6k per year to make the hypothetical easier to work with.
5) let's presume that this person has at least a minimum timeline of 8 years from now (that would be 4 years minimum after the last $500 comes available 4 years from now)... Sure a longer time-frame is fine too but let's just presume a minimum of 8 years from now.. so that we are on the same page.
6) Let's presume that the person has some kind of balance in other investments, that they have at least a neutral view of bitcoin as compared with their various other investments that has caused them to come up with their chosen allocations into bitcoin.
7) Let's presume an average level of risk aversion/tolerance.
let's presume average intelligence, skills, abilities to plan and learn along the way and to tweak approach and allocations as needed but that the person is mostly NOT doing a whole hell of a lot of creative bullshit beyond just buying, accumulating and holding BTC.. and even if they have abilities to reallocate they are just riding the market with a tentative plan to really seriously revisit everything after 8 years in terms of whether to continue to do anything in regards to bitcoin or just to start cashing out at that point...some flexibility in this but just plays into the idea of a timeline that is at least 8 years from now before any major changes are actually potentially needed to be made.
So, ok. bitebits. How you going to handle this hypothetical situation? Based on the philosophy that you already outlined for me, you are going to buy BTC right away with the $12k that you already have. Then every two weeks you are going to use your whole $500 right away at whatever BTC price. You are going to do the same with the surprise $6k that you get every year; you are going to buy BTC with it right away.. you are not going to diddle dally with it.
In other words, you are
not going to try to spend either the $500 per two weeks in advance nor the $6k extra per year in advance, so why is this supposed lump summing (as soon as the cash comes available) NOT the same as DCA? because you cannot really spend either the $500 or the $6k until you get those amounts right? You are not advocating a kind of going into debt lump summing, are you?
Anyhow, it would be nice to hear some specifics regarding your anticipated approach and how your anticipated approach happens to play out so much better than my approach that attempts to divide cashflows and lump sums into three BTC acquisition categories.
BTC looks still very weak unfortunately... 50% drop from 60 to 30K vertically. Still no (real) rebound and staying in the 35K range.. Hmm I don't want to see this but it's smell not good if BTC are not able to bounce and stay over 42K+ soon. Otherwise more dip (below 30K) is really on the table unfortunately...
Good week end for everyone
30k to 40k was not real enough for you??
To attempt to answer on behalf of gallianooo, he is not saying what he wants. He is saying what is going to happen, in spite of what he wants..
hahahahaha
That's how down before up plays out... don't u know nuttin serveria?
Edit: galianooo beat me to responding by about 2 minutes and seems that he pretty much said what I had anticipated that he was going to say, just using different wordenings.
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