I added "2x per year" trend lines to his chart...
It looks like his 200-weeks graph follows that "100% a year" trend quite nicely.
It's just too many people started talking about "200% a year" lately, even Saylor, which is annoying.
Saylor may be talking about instantaneous price value, not averages, or we don't know his averaging parameters, or he may be excluding certain events as outliers. It's all a matter of interpretation, averaging horizon, etc.
Not disagreeing with any of this, and sometimes I personally wonder how much the earlier days should be counted.. when we are talking about pre-2013, but surely there is some kind of value there because bitcoin did begin to have a certain amount of price discovery in 2010 and of course, it was not as sophisticated, but even that earlier data could lend some insights into subsequent behaviors which are not necessarily different in kind, just degree.. and sure, of course, having tools that allow for the betting against bitcoin rather than just betting for bitcoin or the ONLY way to bet against it is to sell (which means that you have to buy it previously) do seem to be incomplete in terms of assisting with more accurate price discovery.
Some predictions talk about $400k/BTC by the end of 2021, so that's a 1200% gain for 2021 (assuming $30k/BTC at the start of 2021)... Wild, sure, but does King Daddy care?
I really do not consider analysis to be very accurate when we might pick seemingly random timelines such as calendar years or months or quarters or whatever, and sure there is going to be some helpfulness in some of these kinds of dynamics, but really the way bitcoin is designed in terms of issuance does cause way better assessments to at least be considered in terms of the four year cycles - even maybe if at some point, we can attempt to some sub-analysis within the cycles... so even with those kinds of attempt to reframe the assessment, we might not really know what might be a fair starting point for this particular price rise (that we are in the middle of).. so reasonable peeps can come to differing conclusions about whether the extreme of $3,124 (of December 17, 2018) should be used as the base or maybe the $4k-ish bouncing off point around April 1, 2019.. or maybe we should attempt to figure out various gravitation points averaging out the more or less bottom of 2019 time frame (maybe looking at price movements in 2018 and 2020), which might bring us to around $6k as a starting point for our current price run up.
Personally, I am gravitating towards a $4k-ish price to be the bouncing off point for this cycle.. just like I consider around $250-ish to be a fair bouncing off point for the 2015-2017 run (by the way, I come to $250 for the 2015-17 cycle mostly because through a large part of 2015.. around 10 months in total, the BTC passed through such price point and even gravitated around it quite a bit).
Personally, I consider a "stable" price of $100k/BTC by the end of 2021 to be a realistic, healthy, and pretty damn good scenario. That's a 230% gain for 2021, which pretty much agrees with Saylor's Crystal BallTM. By "stable", I mean safely above $100k, say, $120k-$130k, with the usual volatility and ant-pump/dumpenings.
I was about to call you "a fucking bear," AlcoHoDL, largely based on your going along with $400k-ish as being a kind of reasonable blow off top for this cycle.. and maybe I am a bit delusional with my own expectations, but surely that would be reasonable with my consideration of $4k as our jumping off point, which would be about a 100x for this particular cycle.. so gosh can we really expect much more than that, even with some of the institutional FOMO and the bullshit pie in the sky supercycle theories.... but then if we balance out a decent number of the factors we should be expecting that the peaks and the troughs should be becoming less and less extreme with the passage of time, but if we still end up getting 100x out of this particular cycle, that would end up playing out more bullish than the 2017 cycle which ended up being around a bit less than 80x ($19,666 / $250)
Then, when I read your whole paragraph in regards to the bottom, I am kind of considering that you might be a wee bit too optimistic to consider that $100k would be holding as a bottom.. gosh.. maybe you might be right especially if the top "ONLY" reaches $400k, then a 75% drop or even less might be reasonable based on overall circumstances.
These are all SOMA guesses of course, as I believe SOMA guesses to be the best price predictors. No math or science involved—I leave that to our resident expert, the singing llama.
Edit: I calculate % gain as 100 x [V(t) - V(t-1)] / V(t-1), i.e., a 2x gain is a 100% gain.
Sure, many of us are employing some amount of SOMO in our analysis in terms of how much weight to assign to a variety of factors, including some of the most current (and seemingly valid) BTC price prediction models that might be weaving through our subconsciousness without our even having had known it.. you fucking stealer of ideas.
#nohomo.. we are all doing it.. well at least those of us who are seriously attempting to grapple with some of the ongoing BTC price dynamic happenings.
