Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 580. (Read 26467714 times)
March 29, 2024, 07:01:15 AM
March 29, 2024, 06:02:18 AM
Interrupting Buddy streak.
Where is everyone?
Where is everyone?
Never far away my friend, always one eye on the BTC price.
Good idea for the Buddy Block
Might be a quiet few days on the forum, Good Friday, Easter Weekend etc. At least GBTC can’t sell anything for a few days now, hey.
I’d like to think we could be above $72,000 by Monday.
March 29, 2024, 06:01:14 AM
March 29, 2024, 05:38:21 AM
Interrupting Buddy streak.
Where is everyone?
Where is everyone?
March 29, 2024, 05:01:15 AM
March 29, 2024, 04:01:14 AM
March 29, 2024, 03:01:13 AM
March 29, 2024, 02:01:17 AM
March 29, 2024, 01:01:14 AM
March 29, 2024, 12:15:12 AM
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.
Because...reasons.
Because...reasons.
We all are fortunate enough to see another ATH this week.
We'll see.
I'm hoping we'll continue at least sideways until the halving.
I've still got a shitload of taxes to catch up on before the end of April. I managed to convince my personal taxman that it would be in everybody's best interest to cut me some slack over the winter in anticipation of some serious Bitcoin price growth before the halving. Luckily that came to be. Now I've gotta put up or shut up.
March 29, 2024, 12:01:14 AM
March 28, 2024, 11:31:52 PM
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.
Because...reasons.
Because...reasons.
We all are fortunate enough to see another ATH this week.
March 28, 2024, 11:25:04 PM
[...]
Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..
Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.
Because...reasons.
Because...reasons.
Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..
Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.
I also hope none of us do, as holding one's breath for too long can cause memory loss (as in "I forgot my passphrase"), in which case the pain would be even more severe if my prediction does come true.
Ready the chopper, less than 20 hrs to go...!
March 28, 2024, 11:05:19 PM
TL/DR
It may look like a peak when BTC and the noise around it is too heavily in the mainstream but one day that might just be Bitcoin itself becoming the mainstream, due to adoption like cars, electricity or the internet.
Comparison check as around a decade back I don't think I heard people talking about bitcoin on the street the way they do now, not even on the internet did it had the volume of discussion and engagements it does have now on all social platforms. Bitcoin to me is already a mainstream in the pipeline and unlike cars , electricity and the internet, the speed of bitcoin adoption is rapid than those even despite not having the government backing as the latter examples you had given. Within this circle able to break above a $100k price mark I am having that conviction that bitcoin will be gaining a 3x adoption that it's currently enjoying in another decade from now.It may look like a peak when BTC and the noise around it is too heavily in the mainstream but one day that might just be Bitcoin itself becoming the mainstream, due to adoption like cars, electricity or the internet.
What you are saying is strange.. and even somewhat incoherent..
Yet one point that I would like to make is that even if you believe that a lot of people know what bitcoin is because they heard it's name, it is barely in its earliest stages of actual adoption, even though some rich people are front-loading their stacking and/or hoarding of it... so yeah, the front loading is going to cause the price to go up, yet mainstream will still have to come into it, sooner or later, and the BTC price is not going to necessarily correct down in order to accommodate their wishes to buy cheaper corn.
So good luck with any of those frameworks that consider bitcoin to either be a mature asset or to cap its growth at anything less than 20x to 50x before it might start to dampen in some of it volatility and violence during this period of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind that you seem to be downplaying, even if there might be periods in which you feel that you are right because of correlation to stocks or short period ups and downs along the way, while you are continuing to miss some of the BIGGER picture ideas..around the value proposition of my lil precious.
"Ultra Bullish: 250k" ?? I don't think you know what the badger is capable of
Haha I probably dont, I'm entering this cycle as my 2nd cycle. You could classify me as a bit conservative and I get that, but I'm also trying to be realistic too. Honestly if Ultra Bullish PT will be 400K+ then dont you worry:My exuberance with BTC @ 400k > My anguish at being wrong
You don't have to worry about if you are right or you are wrong, since you are likely NOT selling anyhow.. or you are not trying to time the top, so who cares. Sure, you might shave some off along the way, in the even that you believe that you have enough or more than enough.. but that still does not mean that you have to be correct about scenarios that might happen, but do not end up playing out..
And surely ultra bullish (at $800k plus) is likely more than 3.2x your original number and at least 2x your amended number..
so then what problem should you have describing ultra bullish that does not end up happening.. part of the reason that it is "ultra bullish" is that it has lower odds of happening, and yeah, base case scenarios are in the ball park of $240k to $540k.. .. but even base case scenarios are not guaranteed to happen, so maybe they will or maybe they won't yet part of the reason that we might go through some of these scenarios is to help us to prepare financially and psychologically for both the more likely and the less likely scenario and maybe in your finances, you are even more conservative.. but yeah it would kind of suck for you to spend 4-6-ish years or maybe even more stacking up BTC and then blowing your whole wadd at $258k, and then if the BTC price continues to go up and you have little to no corns.. and at the same time, it may not end up correcting back down to either your sell price or to a price that you consider that it is "supposed to" correct down to in order that you would feel comfortable buying back to the extent that you are even psychologically fit by the time we get to that point.
My take on price targets, etc..longer term view...snip..
4. There are large cohorts of investors that learned by buy into ETFs, then contribute regularly, making an investment that is essentially automatic and DCA-like.
This one point is definitely important to make, will it smooth some of the rough edges of current cycle. I'm still much more aligned to the 4 year cycle, and its probably going to take a change in that to at first make me consider that there is change in it. It would certainly increase the % acceptance that the cycle has changed and will continue to change.4. There are large cohorts of investors that learned by buy into ETFs, then contribute regularly, making an investment that is essentially automatic and DCA-like.
Some of the things that have changed, or at least different is all this movement pre halving. I expected a little bit of it but the prices is about 25-30% higher than I thought it would this early. That ETF volume is a monster, when Fink said earlier that "we see this kind of retail demand". Is retail the bulk of the buying? Have the institutions not really started yet. That was interesting way to say it, or does Fink consider everyone to be retail? If that the truth, we are in for wild ride of uppity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LssQegEHMg
Nope.. institutions have not started buying BTC yet... it takes a while to get institutions into the picture.. they are way less mobile than retail, even though the profile of retail can be quite varied in terms of kind and size of investor.. maybe consider it to be a kind of retail demand that was not captured by the buying BTC directly market.. a kind of retail that loves the ETF wrapper, but detests the idea of directly holding BTC or buying BTC through exchanges that may or may not be as trustworthy as their broker.
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.
Because...reasons.
Because...reasons.
Wow.. you ONLY have 20 hours and 10 minutes left, from the time of your prediction..
Hopefully, none of us are trying to hold our breath in anticipation of such BTC prices.
March 28, 2024, 11:01:16 PM
March 28, 2024, 10:09:15 PM
.... Either we're going to $400,000 or we're going to see a shakeout soon. My thoughts...
I am glad that you got yourself covered either way.
I also think $138K isn't a bad prediction for the high of this cycle.
It is also funny that you have been into bitcoin (or at least a member of this forum) for so long, and you still be struggling with understanding some of bitcoin basics.
But, hey whatever, you do you. We all have our rights to our opinions, and hopefully you do not end up selling too much too soon in such process of characterizing bitcoin as merely a 2x from current prices.
Surely I appreciate $120k to $180k as the range for an intermediate stop that is likely pending and/or imminent in the coming 1 to 9 months.. and surely having good chances of playing out this calendar year..
And likely another likelihood is that BTC prices are likely going to be higher in 2025 (at least the top price, maybe not the average) than they get to in 2024... So yeah, who needs to get further into specifics.. I surely don't need to because I hardly even claim to know specifics, and surely I wil be more than willing to change my tunes if some kind of dynamics kicks in that breaks some of the underlying presumptions in regards to BTC's demand drying up.. .. no reason to consider such scenario, even though surely there are are some non-zero possibilities that some kind of drying up demand could end up laying out.. maybe less than 10% odds during 2024/2025, which is part of the reason to attempt to prepare for either price direction, even though many of us likely realize directionally, it does not hurt to remained prepared for up, don't sell too much too soon and don't fail to continue to buy if you don't have enough BTC (especially low coiners and no coiners, sometimes referred to as precoiners)
I hate spending Bitcoin.
Unfortunately tomorrow is a bank holiday here so I had to buy some dollars today to pay the taxman.
Luckily I was able to catch close to the top ($71.2k USD) late this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMdcE8jdz70
"I'm the taxman and you'reworking hodling for no one but me."
Unfortunately tomorrow is a bank holiday here so I had to buy some dollars today to pay the taxman.
Luckily I was able to catch close to the top ($71.2k USD) late this morning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMdcE8jdz70
"I'm the taxman and you're
I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... .. and then maybe part of the frustrations that sometimes come .. which then if you have some sales in order to cover tax bills, then the sales from this year end up coming up for next year's taxes.... so an almost never ending loop... and sometimes could inspire ways to figure out how to better defer and/or offset such taxes with expenses or some other means that might be practically applicable..
My take on price targets, etc..longer term view.
Previously I thought that we would likely peak at around 150-160K for this cycle.
However, the following occurred to me recently and presented a "new" pattern related to bitcoin market:
1. Bitcoin ETFs is the fastest growing ETF (even when counting just iBIT) EVER.
2. Before, say, 2020, only "true" hard core bitcoiners, including OGs (with more than, say, 8 years of experience or two full cycles) accumulated btc.
Most people used it as a speculation vehicle, although this has been progressively changing, maybe since 2020.
3. Fiat continues to be printed and easing would most likely commence relatively soon (worldwide). A simple reason is that governments cannot afford to keep paying large interest on their already large debt and pay for this with yet a new "layer" of debt. When people do this with credit cards, bankruptcy ensues relatively soon.
4. There are large cohorts of investors that learned by buy into ETFs, then contribute regularly, making an investment that is essentially automatic and DCA-like.
5. Gold appreciated about 5X in seven years after ETF, practically going straight up steadily, undeterred (mostly) even by the GFC in 2008.
All this suggest to me that it would be very difficult to predict an actual top as it is maybe 8 years or a decade away.
Well, a temporary top may, indeed, occur at 150-200K, but if the correction would be shallow by bitcoin's criteria, like 20-30%, then would it even be a "real" cycle going forward?
Instead, we might switch to a "utility cycle" or "adoption cycle" until at least $20 tril ($1 mil) plus minus 30% or even more, perhaps.
Previously I thought that we would likely peak at around 150-160K for this cycle.
However, the following occurred to me recently and presented a "new" pattern related to bitcoin market:
1. Bitcoin ETFs is the fastest growing ETF (even when counting just iBIT) EVER.
2. Before, say, 2020, only "true" hard core bitcoiners, including OGs (with more than, say, 8 years of experience or two full cycles) accumulated btc.
Most people used it as a speculation vehicle, although this has been progressively changing, maybe since 2020.
3. Fiat continues to be printed and easing would most likely commence relatively soon (worldwide). A simple reason is that governments cannot afford to keep paying large interest on their already large debt and pay for this with yet a new "layer" of debt. When people do this with credit cards, bankruptcy ensues relatively soon.
4. There are large cohorts of investors that learned by buy into ETFs, then contribute regularly, making an investment that is essentially automatic and DCA-like.
5. Gold appreciated about 5X in seven years after ETF, practically going straight up steadily, undeterred (mostly) even by the GFC in 2008.
All this suggest to me that it would be very difficult to predict an actual top as it is maybe 8 years or a decade away.
Well, a temporary top may, indeed, occur at 150-200K, but if the correction would be shallow by bitcoin's criteria, like 20-30%, then would it even be a "real" cycle going forward?
Instead, we might switch to a "utility cycle" or "adoption cycle" until at least $20 tril ($1 mil) plus minus 30% or even more, perhaps.
Yeah, but you need your 20 BTC to get up to $10 million each, no? how many cycles are we going to need to wait for that? maybe the next cycle? or the one after that?
March 28, 2024, 10:01:14 PM
March 28, 2024, 09:34:25 PM
Sensing a new ATH in the next 24 hours.
Because...reasons.
Because...reasons.
peeps are too 'cute' with those unnamed 'reasons'
EDIT: why kitchen remodels are so expensive these days? darn it.
March 28, 2024, 09:01:13 PM
March 28, 2024, 08:52:51 PM
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