Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 577. (Read 26467678 times)
March 30, 2024, 01:37:47 PM
Wow boring times at altitude, Q4 looms big IMO
March 30, 2024, 01:01:14 PM
March 30, 2024, 12:01:14 PM
March 30, 2024, 11:38:22 AM
Four in a row… STOP
Buddy interruption!
The Dude taking care.
Buddy interruption!
The Dude taking care.
March 30, 2024, 11:01:17 AM
March 30, 2024, 10:01:15 AM
March 30, 2024, 09:01:14 AM
March 30, 2024, 08:01:17 AM
March 30, 2024, 07:39:07 AM
you need front and back photo of your drivers license or your passport.
Also they are FDIC for your cash.
I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.
Less in coins.
Also they are FDIC for your cash.
I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.
Less in coins.
My relative is on visit visa to USA and has valid passport with USA visa. So he can also use that facility?
The withdrawal is not much just few hundred buck's.
What about binance? That too works in USA?
Sounds like too much hassle for just a few hundreds but anyways.... Can your relative open a bank account in US if he is not a resident?
For just a few hundreds I would consider using a Bitcoin ATM even if the fees are sometimes a bit too high. Specially if what he needs is cash.
If it is just for some purchases, there are lots of stores supported by Bitrefill gift cards (https://www.bitrefill.com/us/en/gift-cards/)... and those do not have additional fees.
ALso there are some virtual visa cards you can load.
Going the bank route for this type of transaction seems overkill, unless there are reasons I am not aware of.
March 30, 2024, 07:16:27 AM
March 30, 2024, 07:01:15 AM
March 30, 2024, 06:56:06 AM
I hear in Germany, it is zero tax after a year. No such luck here, but some more manageable amount after a year.
Yes, that is right. If you HODL for one year and selling then you do not have to pay taxes in Germany.
This rule has been in place for a very long time, but it was still not always safe. Some tax offices did not recognise the 1-year deadline. In 2022, the rules were clarified from the government and since then it is safe with the 1-year deadline. Some other rules have also been clarified. Staking and airdrops (no 1-year deadline but 25% taxes at least), mining and even how to calculate taxes in the event of a hard fork.
March 30, 2024, 06:01:15 AM
March 30, 2024, 05:01:16 AM
March 30, 2024, 04:01:13 AM
March 30, 2024, 03:01:13 AM
March 30, 2024, 02:01:16 AM
March 30, 2024, 02:00:53 AM
Yeah.. last cycle I had my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...
yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.
I have read your posts on this and others. The problem I have though is assigning any kind of probability to numbers above 250, sure there is a very tiny weeny .% probability and to me they are all like pie in the sky and not realistic. Its easy on one hand to say its only a "3.2x-is difference" but based on market cap your talking about going from ~1.3T and ~70k spot to 13T and ~700k spot. I cant wrap my head around that much capital injection happening this cycle. Dont get me wrong it would be great, and I might be severely underestimating retail fomo and etf + other cap injections along the way during this bull but at the same time lets be realistic.yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.
I am attempting to be realistic.
You assign lower probabilities than me. No problem.
If you add up all of my projected numbers above $650k from my 2021 assignment of probabilities that I had assigned around 6.75% probabilities that the BTC price would go higher than $650k during that last cycle.. and yeah of course, the price did not end up going above $69k.. yet this cycle the odds for supra $650k has to be higher than it was last time.. and yeah I had not considered a number for that yet.
A few days ago, I had also assigned probabilities to what the BTC price will be in 10 years.
So maybe the odds that you come to calculate might look something like the below that in 10 years BTC will:
1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover) - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) - less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) - less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) - less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) - less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) - around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m - around 7%
1) Go to zero (or less than $10) (and not recover) - less than 1%
2) Go to a price that is between $10 and $1k (and not recover) - less than 5%
3) Go to a price that is between $1k and $10k (and not recover) - less than 8%
4) Go to a price that is between $10k and $35k (and not recover) - less than 9%
5) Go to a price that is between $35k and below the current price ($66k-ish) (and not recover) - less than 10%
6) Go to a price that is between the current price ($66k-ish) and $150k (and get stuck there) - around 10%
7) Go to a price that is between $150k and $500k (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
8 ) Go to a price that is between $500k and $1m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
9) Go to a price that is between $1m and $2m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
10) Go to a price that is between $2m and $10m (and get stuck there) - around 12.5%
11) Go to a price that is higher $10m - around 7%
I am attempting to be realistic in all of my assignments of probabilities. I suppose that having differing ideas about future probabilities (especially when it comes to prices, such as BTC prices) contributes to differing market behaviors, and if we all agreed about the current BTC price or variations of the future price, then that would be a boring world. There would be no volatility.. but that is not the world we live in, especially when it comes to BTC.. In BTC we have violent and inevitable volatility that is likely going to last until it reaches around $5 million per coin or more. . which is around 10x gold's market cap (which maybe is going to happen within 2-4 cycles).. and then BTC is going to have another 100x more appreciation from that in the coming 50-200 years.. so these things take a while, but even in the relatively short term, we can likely have some funzies.
[edited out]
I have a possible solution to your puzzle: this "cycle" will continue for longer than expected. This way, it could get to 13T in about seven years at about 40% appreciation/year (on average) or roughly 2X of Nasdaq.
Or, get there sooner, say, by 2029 (at 60% a year) and then undergo a long term bear.
Witness a 8 year (about) bull market in Gold after ETF approval, followed by a 3-6 year bear (depending if you count from the lows or from the change in trend) and now 6-9 years of continuing bull.
Imho, we would get something similar, but not exactly, of course.
That sounds pretty bearish, Biodom..
But hey, you are entitled to your own whimpy opinion.. whether it ends up being correct or not.
Ok.. this cycle is until around the end of 2025, give or take 6 months... so $650k to $900k could be reached.. maybe.. rough ball park of greater than 10% odds..
you need front and back photo of your drivers license or your passport.
Also they are FDIC for your cash.
I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.
Less in coins.
My relative is on visit visa to USA and has valid passport with USA visa. So he can also use that facility? Also they are FDIC for your cash.
I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.
Less in coins.
The withdrawal is not much just few hundred buck's.
What about binance? That too works in USA?
Binance US discontinued its transactions in USD right around the the beginning of 2023.
There is cash app, and Gemini, and there may be bitcoin atms, depending on the city where the guy is going... or maybe bitcoin meetups and just transact directly with some real world peeps.
March 30, 2024, 01:55:23 AM
I had a pretty BIG tax bill this year too, for "reasons.".. kind of weird to sometimes be paying so damned much.. ... ..
yeah my wife complains about the amount of taxes we pay lately. i just tell her that if you dont want us to pay taxes we can always choose to be poor, as we only pay taxes when we make money.she grudgingly agrees paying it is better.
There can be dilemmas regarding if there is enough money in the various accounts that are already in dollars to pay the bill, so then just move a little money around so that there is enough in the account that is paying the bill... so then it comes in handy to have some of that money just hanging around.. .. yet at the same time, don't we also sometimes worry if we have too much cash that is just hanging around and it is not working?.. I hate to get sucked into those luring ideas of yield and interest and dividends, even though surely there is some attractiveness in having your money working versus not working, and another thing is that I will admit that I did have to sell some cornz to cover the float.. or to be able to maintain my sufficient cashfloat.. which meant that I ended up selling around 0.3% of my BTC stash, and hey that should just be a rounding error correct?.. I mean I probably am already to a status that I am permitted to sell way more than that - even 30x of that and to even claim that it is sustainable to be able to sell up to 10% per year..... so still dancing around ideas of being able to sell 4% to 6% to 10% per year. .. and look at me getting all worked up over a mere 0.3%.. .. even if I sold that every single month. .that would not even add up to the 4%.. it would be 3.6% for the whole year.. .. gotta pick up the spending game.. I keep saying to myself, but not really complying.. .
Maybe I should bid against Bob's 55 acres to the south of him?... and we could become neighbors? good ole buddies?
Could you actually imagine bob as your neighbor in real life?
Trading in and out often increase taxes as these trades count as short term cap gains, which are taxed the same as income, so up to 37%+NIIT of 3.8%+state tax (not in TX).
Not optimal, so after experiencing this kind of taxes once (during the Internet "bubble"), I almost never sell before at least a year has passed.
I hear in Germany, it is zero tax after a year. No such luck here, but some more manageable amount after a year.
Keeping most of cash in a bank (which pays out close to nothing) vs keeping it in a brokerage account that pays above 5% in a money market fund is as close to a nobrainer as it could get in a non-crisis economic situation.
March 30, 2024, 01:28:06 AM
you need front and back photo of your drivers license or your passport.
Also they are FDIC for your cash.
I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.
Less in coins.
Also they are FDIC for your cash.
I usually keep a few thousand in cash for business on their site.
Less in coins.
My relative is on visit visa to USA and has valid passport with USA visa. So he can also use that facility?
The withdrawal is not much just few hundred buck's.
What about binance? That too works in USA?
Jump to: