Because some of us are still used to 2017 pump levels. I made that mistake, too.
But JJG got me straight again
What are "we" saying now then?
Are we in like mid-2017 ish price levels, where we might have a decently large pullback before continuing up in a kind of blow-off top?
Or might we end up in more of a kind of 2013 double top performance where we might be somewhere in the first price bubble (whether it has peaked or not might be another question), and then our pullback would be longer than the one(s) that happened after August 2017.
I keep getting the sense that the top of this particular bubble could end up dragging into 1st quarter or 2nd quarter of 2022.. but surely there is a whole hell of a time between now and then, so it is difficult to suggest how this bubble could get there - so maybe in the end, those folks who have been more reliant on the four year fractal for providing their guidance end up being correct and we just get another cycle that ends up playing itself out in the last quarter of 2021.. I still don't know how that happens either and could reasonably result in tops that range anywhere in the $150k territory to even up to $1.5 million.. and yeah no one finds this helpful to have such a broad range and the higher end of the range does come off as a bit over-the-top in terms of probabilities, especially to be able to reach it by the end of the year (which then causes me to consider that if the top ends up being even close to that $1.5million high for this cycle, then it just seems more reasonable that the cycle could take a wee bit longer to play out).
Surely, difficult to speak with any kind of confidence without coming off as a wee bit of a kook.. but at the same time, I have hardly any sense of financial expectations that any of the UPpity BTC price performances need to play out to make me feel MOAR better financially.. even though psychologically there could be some good feelings in regards to pointing at the no coiners who had continued to fail/refuse to take any kinds of meaningful actions to acquire some corns in case they catch on.. and BTC prices going up to the upper end of the range - even $500k to $1.5k would surely be quite validating (just in case some of us don't already feel validated enough.. .I was even feeling pretty validated in the $10k to $20k range.. so, there is that angle, too)
Alright, but "we" learned that BTC historic chart moves/prices can't simply be mapped onto the future.
While a $1k dump/pump thrilled the shit out of me in 2017, it's just a "meh" occurrence nowadays, but relatively speaking, a -$1k move in Q1 of 2017 would be like about a -$5k move in the todays. If expressed in percent, the same price movements would "feel" bigger in absolute values, maybe you remember our little discussion about this, some weeks or months ago.
Even relatively spoken, $500k is plausible, because it would be under 900% move up from current price, which we "know" BTC does like to do, post halvening.
That is what we used to know. With the s-curve hypothesis, the nearing liquidity crisis and big institutional money flowing in for the long haul, it is clearly possible that there will be no -80% two year lasting bear market in the next years. As the time goes on, your mappings of a peak in Q1/2 2022 could even turn into a plateau, followed by further plateaus, gradually decreasing by height and increasing in duration, what would result in said s-curve.
I like the idea, and i would be happy to observe this, and it's not only unrealistic to happen, because we didn't have it yet. Honey badger will surprise (most of) us, and hopefully not in proudhon's favour. The end of cycles as we know them, followed by "steps".
I realized i have to look back to 2017 like early adopters looked back at 2013 in 2017, but there's still no right way to look forward.
EDIT: Just checked the price ($56.6xx) and like that i'm "in the money" while i bought a bit too high today. I could also have waited for that second dip, what seems quite a regular thing following significant dumps, lately. IDC. I got more sats, that's all that counts. May i quote nullly:
1 BTC = 1 BTC
or is it
1 BTC == 1 BTC
?
