Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 629. (Read 26468335 times)

Making my own shit coin. Craig Wrong With Hat.
The ticker will be SHITE.

It's gonna go to the moon ya'll.

What the hell is going on with these dumps? An effort by certain forces to keep the price low or just normal selling? Seems kind of orchestrated to me, 2 decent recoveries then smackdowns, I haven't seen that kind of price action for a while. I guess it could just be all the degen future traders. Anyway clearing out the weak hands around the former ATH is probably a good thing.

Ever notice how with every dip the MSM tries to attribute it to some news?

So what's this dip? The news that Craig Wrong is not Satoshi? 

Data from CoinGlass shows that over $100 million in long positions have been wiped out over the last 12 hours, while $167 million in longs have been liquidated over the last 24 hours. Other assets like gold and Wall Street's tech-heavy index Nasdaq have also come under pressure this week.

-9.6% from the ATH. Perhaps Binance/Bitfinex longs squeeze? At least I don't see anything suspicious about Coinbase or ETF outflows. But there always will be manipulators in these two exchanges specifically, perhaps related to the 'house'. It has to be someone familiar with all complicated positions/options, etc. It is funny that there will always be plenty of victims who manage to lose big amount of money even in the most stable and long bull run in the history of Bitcoin. Imagine if these billions of fiat lost each day were invested at the price of 15K a year and something ago. That would be 4.5x profit. But the lack of knowledge and wider perspective leads to gambling and always losing.

Are we poor AGAIN? 

I mean if we are given five choices, which you have given, then we try to guess the most likely to happen.  You have covered all of the possibilities, so maybe we could boil them down to 100% and assign odds to each one.  What is wrong with that?

Here's my ballpark off-the-cuff attempt to assign actual probabilities to each of the choices (based on current data and my own thinking about the matter).. .which currently shows May with the highest results.. but what the fuck do I know?

March 2024 - 17%-ish
April   2024 - 24%
May.   2024  - 29.5%
Later then may?  28%
never?  1.5% or less

Total = 100%

Please note that earlier I had assigned 22% odds to March, but now after I filled in the whole spectrum of possibilities, I had to down grade my own assignment of my own March numbers from 22% to 17%-ish, so I filled in the other possibilities for each of the answers to make them add up to 100% in total.. and then also to show how I resulted at May 2024 as the highest probability...

You will also see that my May results are not even greater than 50%, but if you add up all of my numbers for March, April and May, I am probably giving too high of odds because they add up to 70.5%-ish which seems a bit outrageous when I think about if that is even realistic to have that high of a probability assignment to such a thing.. but for now, I am going to stick with those numbers..

I have no problem being wrong and I am now thinking that I might be overly bullish with these actual numbers.. especially since life is full of surprises, yet I am doing my best based on what is in my thinking at this particular moment based on a scenario that you presented that already shows that it contains all of the possibilities so whatever we do, our numbers have to add up to 100%.

Are we poor AGAIN?