Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 663. (Read 26468733 times)

Hi all, long time no log. I've missed you all (except for the idiots).

I had a life-changing BTC theft, I am a  security-oriented kinduva guy. It's a long story, plz don't ask. Three-letter-agencies are involved.

I am also old, quit my job, etc.

The good part? I paid off 10 years of debt with BTC, fixed up my old house, bought a cool 2005 truck. The best part? I gave a $100 paper wallet to a family member. He reported that it was now $3k.

EDIT: I am trying to catch up on two years of posts. Good Stuff, all around!

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Nice one!   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qae25976UgA

I would not call selling small parts at various points as the BTC price going up to be cashing out and/or taking profits, even though the BTC is more in profits if you sell on the way up versus if you had sold prior to the price going up.   And you also have to assess the size of your stash.. so maybe if you ONLY have 1 or 2 BTC and you are trying to get to fuck you status, then you might not be in a position to be selling BTC.

So for example if a person was right above fuck you status he were to have 66 BTC, and I decided to sell 2% every time that the BTC price increased by 40%, then he surely would not be eating very much into his stash.   He could even decide to sell 0.5% of his bitcoin every single month without reference to the price (except maybe some hesitancy to sell if the BTC price were below or near the 200WMA, so I don't see the problem with those kinds of sales.  He could actually do both things if he wanted, or maybe shave the percentages in regards to how much he is selling if he is worried about a possibility that he might be selling too much.

Now if a person is selling with an intention to buy back at lower prices, or if he is not sure if he has enough BTC or if he is still in his accumulation stages, then he might not be in a position to be selling his BTC - because he is anticipating trying to buy back at lower prices and he does not have enough and he would be gambling rather than acting prudent because the BTC price might not go back down.

Of course, we already heard of guys selling some of their BTC because they want to purchase some BIG ticket items, and surely those are personal choices and maybe they have already exhausted various other fiat resources that they have, and so all that they have left is to sell some of their bitcoin.  I am not sure if I would agree with that, but guys surely have to make those kinds of decisions while realizing that they might be better to defer those kinds of choices a bit longer  and they might not have to spend as many BTC, but then again, we cannot really know for sure either, even though a lot of us longer time bitcoiners are tending to see that BTC seems to be in quite a bullish set up right now in terms of facts on the ground, and so we might not be able to really know if we are being tricked into something or if our BTC are likely to be worth 2x to 3x more in the coming 6-9 months give or take 3 months.. and even the possibility of other scenarios of BTC getting into 5x to 15x price territories in 9-18 months give or take 3 months..

I feel that I have never been into selling too many BTC too soon, because it has frequently been my position that there is a need to get to a position of over accumulation before you are even in a position to start to sell your BTC, and surely we can have differing viewpoints in regards to when we might cross over the threshold of being in a state of over accumulation.  There are some guys who believe that over accumulation is not possible, so I think that we can agree to disagree on some of those kinds of seemingly personal preference matters.

I also personally believe that for an overwhelming majority of normies there is a need to attempt to fit into both worlds in order to have more options and probably not to be targeted, so that could be part of the rationale for having some diversification in assets, because there may even be some targeting of normies who don't have accounts in both worlds who might try to exclusively stay within bitcoin circles, which ends up giving fewer rather than more options, even though on paper some of the bitcoiners might have millions of dollars, but they might not have had developed easy on and off ramps.


Yeah.. even though I might not agree with some  of your formulas, sometimes, but yes, each of us should be able to figure out some formulas that allow us to feel comfortable with the quantity of BTC that we are cashing out and the quantity that we are allowing to ride, and there could be some points that we might gather that we are selling too many coins, and we have to cut back and use funds from other sources... but yeah, if you give yourself a budget to sell 5% of your stash between $72k and $92k, then that could potentially be reasonable, especially if you had not sold more than 2% between $36k and $55k, and maybe this is assuming that your average cost per coin is not any more than $18k, so your lowest priced sales that started at $36k already had a 100% profits and you were ONLY shaving off 2% of your stash between $36k and $55k.. and then when the price traveled between $76k and $92k (presuming it gets there) you plan to shave off another 5%... so part of the rational might be that as long as you have more than enough BTC, and your costs per BTC are largely less than $18k per BTC, then you have quite a few options, and you are taking out relatively low amounts of BTC and you still well might be allowing your BTC to compound in value if the price continues to go up.

And so we could come to differing numbers in terms of how much would be permissible to sell, which may also vary depending on where you are at life, and maybe even if you might have other systems in place in regards to how many BTC you would be allowing yourself to sell - for example monthly... such as my earlier example of up to 0.5% per month.. but at the same time if you are employing both systems then you might end up selling more bitcoin than you need to sell, so then you start to cheer for downity because you oversold and you are expecting to buy back cheaper, which might not end up happening, especially given our current price location including that currently we are still in the middle of noman's land.

What I suspect might happen with you, Phillip, is that you probably are cashing out under various systems and rationale, and you likely are not really getting a lot of compounding effects out of your BTC, even though you are shaving off profits from time to time..and I would conclude shaving off too many profits... but yeah, sure maybe in the end whatever you are doing is making sense in terms of keeping the shaving off within acceptable limits for an elderly guy, but might not be acceptable for someone who might be younger and be needing to defer more of his gratifications.. and someone who might not have had accumulated enough BTC.

Exactly. For some reason they think of it as buying and selling Bitcoin instead of buying and selling fiat currencies.

I can't believe anyone would be so short-sighted as to spend their precious Bitcoin just to invest in some silly fiat currency.

Do they really expect dollars, euros, yuan, etc to outperform Bitcoin?

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

a 4 year reminder to listen to this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw
<3

A sad day whenever a crypto bro longs fiat.

the evening wall report


a new all time high observed on 'stamp @ $70,184

impressive demand continues to present itself and seem likely to remain as institutional adoption gains traction
the pre halving rally gathers steam as we approach uncharted waters gentlemen
steady on



dyor


4h


D

stronghands

slice a piece is a very small % under 2 % of your coins

taking profit is maybe selling 5% of your coins.

cashing out mean total sale of all coins

the real question is what is between taking profit and cashing out.

if you sell 50% of your coins it needs a name (stupid comes to mind)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

We need to redefine what selling means. "Cashing out" or "taking profit" sounds too positive when what they are really doing is jumping back into a sinking boat called fiat.

Too bad for the guys selling at these prices (and I am not specifically trying to pick on you), because sometimes there are guys who might have bought a lot of coins in 2021, and maybe even if they continued to buy coins in 2022 and 2023, they might not have really bought aggressively enough to bring down their costs per BTC because they were thinking that they had enough BTC, and so now they are finally in profits, and some of those guys will be selling too many coins too soon, merely based on their being in profits, which is probably not going to end up being a very good decision in the longer run, especially if they were to have ways to just continue to hold their coins and maybe even continuing to buy on dips, even though maybe they are no longer in the buying mood and they are just looking when to sell.. which over the years we saw a lot of those guys.

We saw them in late 2016 and early 2017 (when the BTC price passed back through the lower $1ks and soon hit the $2ks after a few months) guys selling way too many coins too soon, and we also saw them in late 2020 early 2021 (when the BTC prices crossed over $19,666 and ended up hitting $40k in a matter of a few weeks), and surely in 2022 and into 2023, we ended up getting a correction below the $$19,666 earlier ATH, but in the whole scheme of things those sub $19,666 ended up being buying opportunities that might not have been usual to come.

I think we may well be hitting something similar again, and so we coudl get some decent price appreciation and we may or may not get corrections back to these levels.. but none of us really know and it is much more difficult to see while we are going through it and surely some guys might have some frustration with the BTC investment, including a kind of knowledge that there has already been a lot of violent volatility, and there are decent odds that similar kinds of violent volatility are going to continue, including various likely ongoing barriers to on and off ramps that can also cause frustrations for guys who don't really want to be stuck without abilities to cash out at their will.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

yeah no more guarantees being given from me.

buddy and badger are the boss.

Only 34 months late. 

It could have been worse.

Think about it.  The time just flew right by.  Does not even seem that long ago.

Greyscale now holds just less than 400k coins from a high of around 670k, I think. Can't wait till it's down to 0. Also the new 9 ETFs have probably surpassed coins held by Greyscale today. Another plus.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Hahahaha

Who would-a-thunk?

Proudhon=troll



And, I thought that we should have had taken him seriously.


Get your cheap cornz while you still can!!!!!!!!


I think it will pump again soon,^tm, or alternatively it might not, but still $100k before the halvening could be possible, or maybe it might take longer or it might take less than that. 

@B_Bun_ I think that your statement about it pumping is very observant (at least at this moment in time), but still it may or may not be a very accurate statement, given dragonvslinux considers that the EFT pumpeners might be fakeners (or perhaps lettuce hands).

 Do you guys think I might need to say what I just said a bit MOAR differently?  I mean substantively or stylistically?


Careful in regards to getting too excited about gold - especially since bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch and likely continuing to eat gold's lunch.

Sure, if you want to keep 1-3% of the size of your bitcoin stash in gold, in order to prepare for Armageddon or something like that, then sure maybe that might be acceptable to the extent that you are no just wasting your time and money and perhaps overly diluting your bitcoin investment.


Well, if you were planning that far out, you may well need to account for inflation and/or debasement of the dollar/pound or any other fiat that you might be using. 

According to my updated fuck you status chart that I have not yet posted, it appears that mid-2035 you would need to be at about 17 BTC in order to have an entry-level fuck you status of $7.5 million.

I tend to view my chart in terms of today's dollars, even though I understand that it might not be realistic - but it is a way to attempt to base oneself - so in some sense the debasement of the dollar and other fiats would cause the nominal value in 2035 to be different - but still should be equivalent of $7.5 million in today's dollars to have right around 17 BTC by mid-2035 - if that might be possible and/or feasible for you.

Were you thinking a different number? or maybe you were combining bitcoin and other assets and/or currencies, then of course, you would not need as much BTC if you were planning to have other assets and/or currencies also in your investment portfolio at that time.