Explanation
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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 698. (Read 26708590 times)
June 21, 2024, 07:01:17 PM
June 21, 2024, 06:45:05 PM
The monthly chart is looking pretty ugly. The bottom of the 3 month range is $56,500. I think that is potentially the worst we’ll see from this decline. I keep hoping we see a reversal, but so far it’s been a ride downward. Save us Michael Dell.
I wonder if the Presidential debate will mention Bitcoin in a positive light with both candidates. Maybe that will be a catalyst.
I wonder if the Presidential debate will mention Bitcoin in a positive light with both candidates. Maybe that will be a catalyst.
June 21, 2024, 06:01:14 PM
June 21, 2024, 05:01:15 PM
June 21, 2024, 04:07:25 PM
I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
Have been post about it…. Assuming you missed them
Lots of parked money and wealth. Many will decide after one of the two old men win.
I am sure many are hoping to see one of the old men to drop out before the election due to health or jail sentence's or whatever.
Most fucked up election I can remember. I can recall Johnson winning in 1964 so I go back a ways.
Never watched American politics get this weird. Hoping for it to swing in a more normal direction as extremism usually fucks thing up bigly.
June 21, 2024, 04:06:11 PM
Well done Netherlands beating France 1 - 0
VAR is a joke. The referee should have checked the monitor himself if it was such a doubt (which it wasn't, clearly a goal).
VAR is a joke. The referee should have checked the monitor himself if it was such a doubt (which it wasn't, clearly a goal).
June 21, 2024, 04:01:18 PM
June 21, 2024, 03:01:15 PM
June 21, 2024, 02:49:15 PM
I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
Have been post about it…. Assuming you missed them
June 21, 2024, 02:01:14 PM
June 21, 2024, 01:51:02 PM
Netherlands will face a devastating defeat against France.
I don't know there defence is solid... some strong players in front simons, frimpong, gakpo...
france not starting kylian...
June 21, 2024, 01:40:04 PM
I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
You make some decent points regarding a potential BTC peak that is either this calendar year or may not being able to last into 2025 - especially f there might end up being a general market crash that begins in early to mid 2025...
I am surely not going to claim to know, even though we both know that bitcoin has had some historical correlation to macro-liquidity, but still macro-liquidity likely does not control bitcoin prices .. so I will take those kinds of seemingly relatively bearish predictions with a grain of salt.. even though sure they could happen.. which is that we could either peak in 2024 or no later than early 2025 - but even if those things were to happen, we cannot really have a lot of confidence about the details including how much BTC goes up before it goes down, and including how much BTC goes down too.. so if BTC does not go up very much, then it might not have a lot of room to go down either.. which brings me back to my own reservations regarding attempting to describe too many legs of our bitcoin price dynamics journey in advance.
June 21, 2024, 01:26:23 PM
Netherlands will face a devastating defeat against France.
June 21, 2024, 01:24:44 PM
Yhea..German goverment joined the pool of sellers..
I'm curious what they're exchanging it for.
They have 50.000 coins to dump for Euro's.
Fidelity clients selling thousands of coins to FOMO NVIDIA stock.
Gox coins sell-off.
It will be a bloody summer.
Under German law, they have to try and do a public auction first of the confiscated assets. They can't go through the disposal process until they are ordered by the courts, and all of this will be public knowledge. I have a feeling that it will take a while for this to go to trial too and if you want to read up the law side, have a look at page 72 here
https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/185046/Disposal-of-confiscated-assets-report.pdf
June 21, 2024, 01:19:12 PM
I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
June 21, 2024, 01:01:18 PM
June 21, 2024, 12:39:21 PM
Why wait to buy? I set buy stairs/ladders
My 64 set at 64.1 64.5 64.9 is done
So I have
62.9 62.5 62.1
rinse and repeat down to ? when ever.
be strong and dca like JJG
That's not how @JJG dca's, I hope, and this approach does not make much sense.
Why? Because you base it on price and not time intervals.
You don't know what is the % move you are dca-ing into, so why these 0.4 thou intervals (which correspond to about 0.6% move)?
If you want dca, I would recommend doing it on a time basis OR in bigger chunks, like Michael Saylor is doing it (proportionally to your stash, of course).
People look at his numbers in awe, like, wow, $700 mil, but it is also "just" about 5% of MSTR "stash", so he is dca-ing by raising money, periodically, but only a few times a year, now.
So, looking at your stash and periodically buying 5% more (if it is possible) seems like a better proposition to me OR doing it strictly on the time basis: once a wk, once a mo, once a quarter.
June 21, 2024, 12:01:15 PM
June 21, 2024, 11:56:05 AM
It feels like the market makers are preying on the emotions of the impatient.
I could be wrong but it just feels like we are in an accumalation/sideways movement before something comes along to change the price direction. I also think that all the bearish scenarios(gox coins, etf early buyer exits, etc) have been priced into the range we are stuck in 57-72k.
Im trying really hard not to get caught up in sentiment out there, but it seems like the more doom and gloom thats regurgitated over media the more likely its a bit orchestrated by the market makers to be honest.
Whats helping keep an even keel is if i take the bottom of the range 57k and compare it to the current 200WMA(~$36k), we are up LOTS and that should be cause for celebration. I mean we can celebrate that every day until something changes!
I could be wrong but it just feels like we are in an accumalation/sideways movement before something comes along to change the price direction. I also think that all the bearish scenarios(gox coins, etf early buyer exits, etc) have been priced into the range we are stuck in 57-72k.
Im trying really hard not to get caught up in sentiment out there, but it seems like the more doom and gloom thats regurgitated over media the more likely its a bit orchestrated by the market makers to be honest.
Whats helping keep an even keel is if i take the bottom of the range 57k and compare it to the current 200WMA(~$36k), we are up LOTS and that should be cause for celebration. I mean we can celebrate that every day until something changes!
I think the market makers are expecting people to dump their mtgox coins in the coming months and are trying to profit from a downturn by using this coming downward pressure to help push the price down. I think they’ll probably be successful in the short term, but at some point they’ll cover their shorts and send the price to the moon. If you aren’t in need of cash in the next 6 months, it really isn’t something to stress too much over.
Agreed, some part of me tho thinks this doom and gloom is actually mostly aimed at the gox holders. Aside from the short-term holders, they are probably the most emotional group right now.
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